2013年9月13日星期五
20130913 新城財經台《香樹輝King King 傾》- 土地供應及郊野公園
以下是2013年9月13日之節目錄音：
地產分析員王震宇出席本台節目後表示, 相比其它競爭對手, 例如新加坡 , 本港郊野公園面積雖然較多 , 但認為這屬於重要資產, 不應用作發展住宅 .
他又指, 現時本港有六成七用地為非郊野公園綠化帶 , 相信當中兩成土地可以研究改變用途 . 他認為, 特區政府可以仿效澳門, 租用內地土地 , 或是跟中央政府商討在深圳鄰近地區, 設立「特區中的特區」 , 以解決本港土地供應問題.
地產分析員王震宇出席本台節目後表示, 現時美國經濟復甦步伐並非強勁 , 加上美國負債仍然高企, 以及美元持續上升, 相信會影響當地出口 , 認為即使聯儲局退市對資金流動性影響屬短暫.
2013年2月18日星期一
20130218 SCMP article - Quantitative Squeezing
below is the original text before being modified for publication in the SCMP. But I liked my original passage more, so here it is:
We live in a time of high inflation and low interest rates. The world is awash with cash thanks to the money-printing programmes of the world’s biggest central banks (Japan, the US, the euro zone), and even some emerging %market countries).
First, superior returns. Compared to “safe” or investment grade instruments from deposits to government bonds, which are generating negative real returns – that is, real yields of -2.5 to -3.5% – real property yields although also negative, are a more palatable 0% to -1.5%. This also explains why Hongkongers have been buying high-yield bonds and, more recently, equities. These can generate returns above inflation. However, they have higher corporate, credit, and supply risks, whereas property does not suffer any of these drawbacks.
Second, inflation hedging. Property is also a great hedge on inflation, which is the big bogeyman lurking on the periphery, thanks to unprecedented and radical use of quantitative easing by global central banks. While rental income rises alongside inflation (as any leaseholder knows), a 10-year bond issued today with a one per cent coupon will yield that same one per cent for the next 10 years.
Third, governments’ need to hold rates down. With global central banks in a “race to debase”, money supply growth should continue to run high in the double digits. If the free market were to determine interest rates, fast depreciating currencies would lead to sky-high interest rates to compensate for the risk of lost purchasing power. However, central banks will hold down interest rates down near zero in order to boost growth.
So what about the prospect of rising interest rates, given Hong Kong housing prices are highly sensitive to interest-rate rises? My conclusion is: barring hyper-inflation, central banks will not hike rates for another 3-4 years. Excepting a handful of oil producer countries, all governments worldwide are running on large and structural budget deficits, with the developed countries seeing their debt burden approaching or exceeding 100% of GDP. If the USA GDP growth is already at an anemic 2%, a two percentage point rate hike will wipe out all growth, and put politicians out of their jobs. Now, if you are the head of state of any of the advanced economies, will you let interest rates go up?
Hong Kong property will fall, but only after another 20 per cent-plus rise has kicked in over the next few years.
Bull view: quantitative squeezing
There has been a lot of talk of a housing market bubble in Hong Kong and that interest rate rises may precipitate a price collapse soon. I argue otherwise. Here are three reasons why.We live in a time of high inflation and low interest rates. The world is awash with cash thanks to the money-printing programmes of the world’s biggest central banks (Japan, the US, the euro zone), and even some emerging %market countries).
First, superior returns. Compared to “safe” or investment grade instruments from deposits to government bonds, which are generating negative real returns – that is, real yields of -2.5 to -3.5% – real property yields although also negative, are a more palatable 0% to -1.5%. This also explains why Hongkongers have been buying high-yield bonds and, more recently, equities. These can generate returns above inflation. However, they have higher corporate, credit, and supply risks, whereas property does not suffer any of these drawbacks.
Second, inflation hedging. Property is also a great hedge on inflation, which is the big bogeyman lurking on the periphery, thanks to unprecedented and radical use of quantitative easing by global central banks. While rental income rises alongside inflation (as any leaseholder knows), a 10-year bond issued today with a one per cent coupon will yield that same one per cent for the next 10 years.
Third, governments’ need to hold rates down. With global central banks in a “race to debase”, money supply growth should continue to run high in the double digits. If the free market were to determine interest rates, fast depreciating currencies would lead to sky-high interest rates to compensate for the risk of lost purchasing power. However, central banks will hold down interest rates down near zero in order to boost growth.
So what about the prospect of rising interest rates, given Hong Kong housing prices are highly sensitive to interest-rate rises? My conclusion is: barring hyper-inflation, central banks will not hike rates for another 3-4 years. Excepting a handful of oil producer countries, all governments worldwide are running on large and structural budget deficits, with the developed countries seeing their debt burden approaching or exceeding 100% of GDP. If the USA GDP growth is already at an anemic 2%, a two percentage point rate hike will wipe out all growth, and put politicians out of their jobs. Now, if you are the head of state of any of the advanced economies, will you let interest rates go up?
Hong Kong property will fall, but only after another 20 per cent-plus rise has kicked in over the next few years.
2013年1月4日星期五
20130104 新城財經台 - 香樹輝 King King傾
20130104 新城財經台 - 香樹輝 King King傾
以下是2013年1月4日之節目錄音：
Metro Radio - Heung Shu Fai 20130104
王震宇料樓價首季微跌後全年將升一成
Bricks and Mortar分析員王震宇出席本台節目後表示, 政府去年十月底推出的兩項遏抑樓市措施後, 雖然樓市成交明顯下跌 , 但措施較政府兩年多前首次推出額外印花稅時為低 . 他指今次政府出招, 只是擊退外來買家 , 但樓價無明顯回落, 亦都不見有大量投資者急於沽貨離場.
王震宇估計今年首季樓價會輕微回落, 但相信由於市民普遍在新一年獲加薪 , 將會帶動樓價在農曆新年後反彈 . 他又認為在各國維持寬鬆政策的大環境下 , 資金會流向實體資產和商品 , 估計今年樓價會升一成.
王震宇又指特區政府正處於弱勢, 要透過壓低樓價增加支持度. 他說政府原意是好 , 但執行上來卻適得其反. 他認為月中的施政報告和下月的財政預算案, 都不應該再推出調控樓市措施 . 他說未來一兩年住宅新供應每年只有大約1萬 2千個單位, 遠遠追不上每年 4萬個單位的市場需求 , 認為應該政府增加土地供應.