2025年5月19日
主題:
》今年首季差估署私樓樓價指數跌幅放緩，請問樓市是否開始見底? 自住買家/投資者是否可以入市?
》資金從美元資產外流，對比不斷下調的定存利率，本港物業是否已有足夠投資吸引力?
發展商減價出貨的取態，對市場有沒有帶來什麼影響？二手業主會否受制於新盤市場？會怎樣看二手市場的前景？銀行是否願意估足價、願意放貸是這批業主的最大考慮，你會怎樣評估現時銀行借貸的取態？
》地緣政治的衝突風險是否仍然存在?
》關稅戰暫緩，但市場對美國衰退的憂慮未減，特朗普雖然放話鮑威爾減息，但聯儲局目前正面對滯脹及財政懸崖的難題，未來利率走向如何? 可以從債息的走勢看到嗎? 背後的理據是甚麼?
訪問來源：【胡。說樓市】
After writing extensively during our due diligence trip during Easter to this once richest country on earth, the fundamental economic numbers do point to massive turnaround from very depressed levels, but the one big question that could deter actual commitment to this as an investment target remains: Can President Milei's reforms last?
To understand whether the Milei phenomenon will last, we must look at the global geopolitical pattern at large: we are now in a gigantic anti-establishment wave that will characterise economic cycles for many years to come; and thus Milei may not be a flash in the pan phenomenon of some 'whacko academic madman' hitting a random high. Let us explain this thesis in a bit more detail:
The end of a multi-decade bureaucratic expansionary cycle?
The post-WW2 years have started a period of perhaps well intended, but centrist and interventionist governance wave, typified by deficit spending and ever bigger governments that made these charts look so absolutely lopsided:
The cancerous growth in the public sector led to, for example, too much Gerontocracy (left chart, in USA) enabling permanent politicians to make fortunes trading on insider legislative info, while the governments they are supposed to supervise and scrutinise go into perpetual deficit spending (right chart, not just USA, but in all developed world). The main side effect of this is the explosive increase in tax burden - big governments need big tax incomes to finance - while killing the middle class (note how little regulation there was before WW2):
There are many such charts that demonstrate such post-WW2 cancerous growth of the administrative state, but we will stop at the above three.
No wonder so many democracies now look like autocracies (see our many UK comments for details), with the state and its establishment allies increasingly targeting real representatives the people voted in as 'deplorables', 'extreme right wing', and 'populists'. That cycle seems to have reversed: now people are voting en masse against the socialist establishment, and bringing back to power, one after another, politicians who vow to fight for the common man, and not globalist causes:
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This wave of anti-establishment sentiment is reaching a new height in May in the UK, where local elections returned a landslide win by Nigel Farage's Reform party, decimating all other opposition in the process.
Milei - the more daring (or genuine) of the rebels
It is against this context that we view President Milei as a phenomenon that will not vanish overnight, because he is a fresh outsider with policies far more radical than many of the more jaded politicians named in the table above - most of whom having been in politics for far too long, and have become disillusioned by the bureaucratic drag that they know will undermine their policies.
Milei is different - he seems unmotivated by money and position, and he is a more fervent believer of anarcho-capitalism than just about all the rebels listed above (see analysis here for a good summary of his beliefs). What's more, he does not mince his words:
Another example (see link here) of his no holds barred style makes him so transparent to the voters as to where he stands, unlike all politicians out there:
This is why his public spending cut drives (see this video for dramatic effect), although ambitious, could indeed work?
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The biggest question on the minds of investors will be: does Milei have the ability to pull off his reform agenda, not being the leader of a majority party in the parliament? Here is our quick take on his various policy agenda thus far:
One year in, we are delighted to see so many ticks or half ticks in this long list of dramatic social/economic/political reforms in the sick man of America a.k.a. Argentina. So impressed is the current reformist US to have such an ally that the Trump administration seems willing to help Milei with Argentina's debt restructuring efforts (link).
His latest big surgery is to return the Peso to market driven fair values, and is apparently succeeding - below, the black market rate premium (blue area below) has collapsed from 160% pre-Milei to near parity now:
The only previous episode when we had a similar drop was during the term of President Mauricio Macri (2015) when he lifted capital controls. The premium returned after President Alberto Fernández was elected and reinstated strict currency controls (which gave rise to property hoarding as a hedge of hyperinflation that resulted).
If we were to bet on a new future for Argentina, we need Milei and his policies to stick, at least for a typical 3-5 year minimum investment horizon for properties.
Can Milei be re-elected?
This leads naturally to the next questions - is he still popular? What are his chances of being re-elected?
First on popularity: it is heartening to see him almost as popular now as the day he stormed to power 1.5 years ago - standing at 47% support now vs 49% back in Jan 2024:
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It is interesting to see that President Macri, being pro-market as well, had similar popularity levels as Milei, although starting off with much higher popularity than Milei. Across all income strata, it seems the people who support Milei most are the lower middle class and the poorest segments of the society:
And compared to all other heads of states in South America, Milei has the most constant net approval ratings, whilst fellow presidents generally suffering from rising net negative approval ratings:
So the proof of the pudding will be first the Buenos Aires election on 18th May (yes this week!), followed by the national election on 26th October (see here).
Given the widespread anti-establishment uprising around the globe described above, even the Buenos Aires election is seeing new party being formed by the former mayor (like Reform in the UK?).
If one believes in the saying 'the trend is your friend', we probably have a very high chance of free market politicians winning again in Argentina as well...
載於2025年04月12日 【Metro Radio 新城地產街】
主題:
》首季住宅物業市道情況如何？踏入第二季，外圍環境受到特朗普向全球徵收對等關稅影響，全球股市一度大幅下挫，閣下如何看投資環境？負財富效應下，會否影響入市信心？
》估計對那類物業影響會較大？豪宅及中小型住宅走勢又是否同步？
》今年首季發展商都積極推售新盤，但價格仍然貼近二手市場價格，閣下如何評估新盤定價？未來新盤推盤策略如何？開價對市場指標作用？
》另外，北部都會區是本港經濟的新增長點。為加快北都建設，發展局去年12月底邀請市場就北部都會區三個「片區開發」試點提交意向書，以敲定日後公開招標的細節和條款，目標是由今年下半年起至2026年期間，陸續為 3個「片區開發」試點進行招標，早前收到22份家財團意向書？如何規劃發展？
主持: 林潔瑩
嘉賓主持: 戴德梁行估價部董事黎劍明
嘉賓: 高力國際香港研究部主管李婉茵
The violent reactions in the market is a good indicator we are in unchartered territory on this tariff issue. And the policy flipflops in the US is also contributing to the volatility.
We will chronicle the recent progress in section 1, before assessing the new geopolitical reality and how it will impact HK assets.
He apparently has no idea how much this will hurt US consumers and how little it will affect the trade deficit. Asian manufacturers and their investors can, to a large extent, sleep easy tonight.
The much awaited 'by country score card' of US tariffs is finally out overnight (see article 1). What is clear is the US's determination to level the playing field, as it has been 'ripped off' by trading partners which have far more punishing trade duties/barriers than US:
The distribution of the tariff rates can be seen from article 1 as well, but here is the global distribution from low tariffs (green) to high (red) - it is obvious that the whole Asian export complex is hit, even US's traditional allies S Korea and Japan: Most hurt of course are the SEA nations which have received much offshoring and reshoring investment in recent years. But what the currency markets have reflected are positive surprises for Japan and Switzerland (blue circles), while Thailand and S Africa (red circles) may have been more punished than expected: Whilst not surprising, the US also closed the loop on China's small parcels route to exporting given earlier brief tariff imposition which was quickly reversed. To show how big the Chinese parcel export industry has become, this is an excellent chart: Yes you got it right, out of top 20 cities that sell on Amazon, only 7 cities are non-Chinese, which take the top 4 spots by a wide margin... By trade bloc impact assessment Below we have broken down the impacted nations by trade blocs - OECD (orange), SEA (blue), and N Asia (green): The key impact columns are 4th from right, indicating which country is hit hardest within that bloc: EU was punished hardest in OECD, while Cambodia/Laos/Vietnam hurt most in SEA, and China/Taiwan both are bruised more than peers. On a total economic materiality basis (5th column), top 3 hit countries are Cambodia, Vietnam, Taiwan. The latter being the most surprising entry in our study... Obviously this is just Trump's opening salvo, and as the 'Art of the Deal' requires, give and take will eventually result in a quite different set of results from this announcement. We await the wide ranging negotiations to begin from today... obviously the more flexible the country is in its executive decision making, the quicker they will reduce the impact of these reciprocal tariffs... Our guess is that most SEA nations fall into this category. Response above are from these sources: A) Japan - Seeking exemptions and negotiating with U.S. counterparts. B) European Union - Postponed counter-tariffs and prefers a negotiation. C) Canada and Mexico - Exempt from baseline tariff but concerned about broader impacts. D) China - Retaliatory tariffs and suspended export permits for certain U.S. soybean producers. ======================Article 1=================== We now know the full extent of Trump's reciprocal tariffs. They’re huge.April 3, 2025 “Liberation Day” turned out to be alarming. President Trump floored investors by announcing the largest tax hike on Americans since at least the 1940s. [...] The April 2 announcements included two sets of import tariffs. One is a new “universal” tax on imports from everywhere. The average tariff rate on imports at the start of the year was about 2.5%. So the 10% universal tariff on its own would raise the average tariff to 12.5%. That would be the highest since around 1940. [...] Americans bought about $3.3 trillion worth of imports in 2024. The tariff rate of about 2.5% yielded a tariff tax bill of about $83 billion. Investing firm Evercore estimates that all the new tariffs combined will push the tax rate on imports to about 29%. ======================Article 2=================== Trump signs order that closes duty exemptions for cheap shipments from ChinaApril 3, 2025 [...] The order says Trump is ending duty-free treatment for the covered goods imported from China and Hong Kong starting at 12:01 a.m. ET (0401 GMT) on May 2, according to a fact sheet provided by the White House. ======================Article 3=================== Morgan Stanley Sees Tough Road for Trump Deals With China, India[...] China is the most exposed to these tariffs, followed by India and Vietnam, according to a research note sent to clients on Wednesday. These three countries could also find it more challenging than other economies in the region to sign a pact by April, according to analysts led by Chetan Ahya. [...] “President Trump’s focus on fixing the US’ large and persistent trade deficit means that Asia will be exposed,” the analysts wrote, adding that much of the risk to the region’s economies will come not just from the direct hit of the tariffs. “The indirect effects of tariffs matter more – that is, the persistence of trade tensions will weigh on corporate confidence, capex and trade.” |
