載於2025年9月12日 【MTF Channel 要葳唔好戴頭盔】
主題:
》全球債市極度危險，未爆煲只係時機未到？
》港樓幾時終極一跌？
》3大投資部署不可不做！
訪問來源：【MTF CHANNEL】
https://www.youtube.com/@mingtakfn
特此鳴謝
主持: 葳葳
攝影，剪接及製作: MTF CHANNEL團隊
2025年9月15日星期一
2025年9月2日星期二
讀張維迎專訪有感：干預經濟屬「致命的自負」20250902
近日閒來閱讀，碰上一篇值得推薦的文章，視頻如下，亦附全文於尾：
近年本港越見奉行大政府經濟政策，正是張公所批評的行政干預思維。此一現象在當今經濟疲弱之勢下，尤為顯著，當就業人口在2019移民潮開始後大幅下挫，再遇北上消費，通關後外遊等因素，令本港就業境況「見波幅，無升幅」已達四年之期：
在此緊縮環境下，卻見公營部門編制屢創新高（見【橙線】），直追本港經濟最高增值板塊（金融是也；同時可見金融線亦在漸行漸低，勢頭不妙，見【紅線】）：
再以絕對值比較，原來公共行政／社會服務類別搖搖領先於2019-2025年間之增幅榜，大幅抽高4.1%；在人口和就業人數皆下跌的環境下，是否有些膨脹的感覺？儘管公務員編制微降1.4%，但相對於整體就業人口下跌6.7%的大局下，於滿街吉舖的今天（零售／飲食業人手在同時間大縮22%之巨！），似乎政府仍然瘦身未竟，須要更加努力：
行文至此，再翻出數篇以前拙作，皆與下文理念相近，以饗讀者：
張教授現為北京大學博雅特聘教授兼國家發展研究院經濟學資深教授，因其倡導自由市場及企業家精神的開創性研究而聞名。
------------------訪問原文--------------------
2025年7月3日
【信報月刊】干預經濟屬「致命的自負」—— 北大教授張維迎：相信企業家和市場自有出路
【本刊記者李俊杰】回顧歷史，人類的狂妄與自負往往帶來災難。40多年的研究讓著名經濟學家張維迎堅信，處理宏觀經濟，唯有收起致命的自負，讓企業家在市場當中試錯與成長，才能切實帶來社會創辦與進步，讓哪怕是普通百姓都能受惠，這也是他為當今中國經濟開出的藥方。今年6月初，張維迎親臨香港恒生大學接受榮譽博士學位，記者藉此機會跟他進行了一場關於中國經濟前景的訪談。
北京大學教授張維迎是中國經濟學界的市場派領軍人物，多年來著作甚豐，以思考邏輯綿密、言談豪氣干雲見稱，名場面不勝枚舉。
2016年在北京大學朗潤園跟主張政府強力介入市場的「經濟國師」林毅夫教授激辯；2017年於北京大學國家發展研究院畢業禮以《自由是一種責任》為題致詞演講；疫情期間的公開演講，也一針見血地指出企業家信心不足緣於體制及法治，全都讓人印象深刻。
市場經濟、自由、法治、企業家精神──這是他1984年在中國經濟學界嶄露頭角以來，一直主張而且捍衞的核心思想。不論是當年改革開放大潮流，還是現時國進民退苗頭漸現，這位奧地利學派經濟學家始終忠於自我認知及思考。
「無論你是官員還是科學家，也不論你有多聰明，知識都非常有限。你不要那麼狂妄，不要覺得自己無所不知。我們很渺小，所以才要市場，讓大家選擇。」時刻保持自省自覺的張維迎觀察到，過去十餘年，一種跟承認無知截然相反的自負在中國強化得比較厲害，「特別是我們加入世貿後，取得巨大經濟進步，財富增加許多，很多人回答『我們為什麼發展得這麼快？』時，傾向歸因於中國的特殊性，例如，政府較多控制經濟等等。」
致命的自負
「尤其受過一定程度教育的人，總覺得自己全盤理解社會運作，以為最優決策是一道數學公式，有標準答案，可以計算出來，『按照我的方式去做，社會就會變好』，但真實世界不是這樣的。」
張維迎借用奧地利學派宗師海耶克（Friedrich Hayek）的作品名稱《致命的自負（The Fatal Conceit）》來形容這種心態，「計劃經濟本身就是致命的自負」。他以曾被他形容為「穿着馬甲的計劃經濟」的產業政策來解釋：「產業政策利用國家政策和資金，扶持特定行業發展，當中意味着，一些人能夠看準未來要怎麼做。」
「產業政策所表現出來的集中化（投資）像中國人押寶一樣。賭注放在同一點，風險很大。近年最典型的是就是電動車和光伏產業，兩者現時均有巨大產能過剩，這很大程度是政府的政策造成。」
訪問來源：【信報月刊】
2025年7月22日星期二
China - Has Home Price Bottomed Yet?
China has been on a long property cycle correction; although not the longest fall compared to the 97-03 cycle, it certainly feels like the deepest drop experienced - down 39% from the 2021 peak in Shenzhen for example:
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The drop has triggered a lot of support measures in recent
months, ranging from policy relaxations to rate cuts. Whilst prices are now
back to 2015 levels (red line above), price-to-income ratios have
seen even deeper correction - the price-to-disposable income ratio (green
line above) is now back to 2007 levels, a full 18-year roundtrip! The
less relevant price-to-per-capita-GDP measure has returned to 2015, similar to
the price index correction (blue line).
If we looked further back to the Asian Crisis period, the
drop in price-income ratios has taken us to even the 1999-2001 period. So are
we near a bottom yet?
Cycle bottom near, but not there yet
The market has recently shown some signs of recovery, as the
first shoots of rebound has appeared in price statistics - the latest monthly
YoY numbers has registered one recovery (green bar below), after
the longest period of all cities reporting drops (red bars) continuously
since 2024:
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Shenzhen price moves (red line above) has always
been a lead indicator of national trends - each time the line turns up, the
number of cities reporting price rises increase. This time however, the SZ line
has not made a reversal yet, suggesting perhaps the odd city rising in the
latest monthly stats is but 'counter-trend rallies' rather than trend
changes...
This assessment is corroborated by stock analysts out there
too, see article 1 for details. The still negative outlook is
justified given still very strong global headwinds in both trade wars (article
3) and proxy hot wars, which can both flare up further. On the micro side,
the inventory glut remains in need of digesting:
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for more charts see here |
Both geopolitics and weak retail appetite has been weighing
on China's business sentiment, which has stayed in contracting territory in Q2,
following a longer period of drops for most of 2023-24:
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As a result, both consumer (blue line below) and
producer prices stayed neutral (at best) to negative:
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The saving grace has been the aggressive rate cuts carried
out by the PBoC, taking funding costs to levels significantly below HK/US
levels now:
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However, the pressure from rate arb is now mounting,
especially when most Western nations are seeing their long bonds crash driving
up rates. We don't expect this trend to end any time soon, and as a result,
China's near record discount vs TBs could be due for mean reversion:
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What is the bullish case?
For Shenzhen specifically, the strong momentum of
Hongkongers consuming up north seem to be providing some support (article 2),
and as the porosity of the SZ-HK border continue to increase, price
equalisation could have some further legs to run, benefiting the prices there
(more than most other cities).
The rate cuts and increasing rental yields are also tilting
fundamentals in favour of owning for end users, and buying for investors. The
negative yield gap (currently around 2%, see blue lines below)
for home owners however could recover more before buying demand returns in
numbers:
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As a result, we expect likely another 100-200bps of
narrowing - either from rental growth or further rate cuts - before prices
begin recovering meaningfully. The timing seems to be more likely 2027 on
current trajectories from the chart above.
=====================Article 1====================
Goldman Sachs Says China Home Prices May Drop 10% Before 2027 Market Bottom
2025/06/26 | Iris Hong
China’s property slump could extend into 2027 with a further 10 percent decline in home prices, as policymakers remain cautious about easing measures, according to a Goldman Sachs report released on Wednesday.
[…]
=====================Article 2====================
Benefits of Shenzhen/Hong Kong tourism mainly flow one way
2025/06/12
[…]
While Hong Kong tourists travel north to take advantage of cheaper hotels and restaurants, Mainland tourists arriving from Shenzhen are more inclined to take short trips and focus on sightseeing rather than shopping and restaurants. Shenzhen has now overtaken Macau as the most popular weekend destination for Hong Kong residents.
[…]
=====================Article 3====================
Trump Says He'll Set 50 Percent Tariff on Copper
2025/07/08
[…]
“Today, we’re doing copper,” Trump said at a July 8 Cabinet
meeting in front of reporters. “I believe the tariff on copper, we’re going to
make it 50 percent.”
[…]
https://www.theepochtimes.com/business/trump-to-impose-50-percent-tariff-on-copper-5884328
2025年7月14日星期一
【Metro Radio】 新城財經台 新城地產街 20250712
載於2025年07月12日 【Metro Radio 新城地產街】
主題:
》資金流向情況如何？是否有資金回流中港兩地？
》近日氣氛好轉，拆息回落，銀行按揭現金回贈增加，目前樓價見底未？資金有否流入房產市場？
》目前公私營房屋比例七三比，有關比例應否作出轉變？當中基於那些因素考慮？應否增加私樓的比例？
》全年樓價走勢？投資策略部署？股匯債比例？
主持: 林潔瑩
2025年6月3日星期二
【胡‧說樓市】樓市展望：聯繫匯率，港元脫鉤，債務危機 20250519
2025年5月19日
主題:
》今年首季差估署私樓樓價指數跌幅放緩，請問樓市是否開始見底? 自住買家/投資者是否可以入市?
》資金從美元資產外流，對比不斷下調的定存利率，本港物業是否已有足夠投資吸引力?
發展商減價出貨的取態，對市場有沒有帶來什麼影響？二手業主會否受制於新盤市場？會怎樣看二手市場的前景？銀行是否願意估足價、願意放貸是這批業主的最大考慮，你會怎樣評估現時銀行借貸的取態？
》地緣政治的衝突風險是否仍然存在?
》關稅戰暫緩，但市場對美國衰退的憂慮未減，特朗普雖然放話鮑威爾減息，但聯儲局目前正面對滯脹及財政懸崖的難題，未來利率走向如何? 可以從債息的走勢看到嗎? 背後的理據是甚麼?
訪問來源：【胡。說樓市】
特此鳴謝
主持: 胡國威
攝影，剪接及製作: 陳迪麟，胡。說樓市團隊
攝影，剪接及製作: 陳迪麟，胡。說樓市團隊
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