Economics of lockdown, and how a country’s future is impacted
The global
overview – OECD wrecked by an overreaction
The economic disaster lockdowns rendered on especially the SME sector
has been well documented, and now we are about to enter another seasonal flu
season in the northern hemisphere, it is timely to look at how the global
dynamic is as of early September (note maps below represent spot comparison to
Feb 2020 levels, so not strictly seasonally adjusted. However, a general
picture is still useful for plotting investment moves ahead.
The level of domestic transport is a generic proxy so we will start with
this – what seems obvious is the strong growth in Africa (Figure 1), up
>20% generally and some >50% - whereas similar geographic regions of S
America (very much under the radar screen of media) and SE Asia (also keen
followers of Western policies) have fallen significantly by similar extents,
showing how policy orientation so dramatically affects local livelihood:
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Figure 1:
Transport proxy – Africa booming, Five Eyes decimated, SEA collapsed, Greece
up  |
Looking by sector, retail and F&B saw strong rises in Africa and The Middle East, but SEA and Oceania are completely wiped out (Figure 2),
and on the more wide economic indicator of workplace visitation levels (Figure
3), S America is up (seasonality?) and Africa is also up, while most of the
rest of the world is suffering – again most in the 5-Eyes nations and SE
Asia(!):
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Figure 2:
F&B and retail – Africa up, 5-eyes down – SEA bad
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