HK budget - Quick comments on a drawn out speech

quick comments: 1) The budget speech is getting way too long - 2 hours 15 minutes... 2) The problem of HK's increasing govt led economy is quite clear from how many fingers are stuck in so many pies, including those pies the city has no competitive advantage in (AI?). 3) deficit spending and multiplication of funds and govt run quangos is the new challenge - HK's debt to GDP is likely to go from 14.4% to a record high of 19.9%. It is a dangerous sense of security to say we are better than the 'developed economies' to borrow like there is no tomorrow, when the global environment is worsening on economic, trade, and geopolitical fronts, while interest rates are exploding from multi-decade lows. Very worrying! 4) small handouts to calm the masses is wearing thin - and complicating the tax return process. Just cut the tax rates already, or abolish income tax like Trump promised will do for the USA...? Below are the more important sections we have extracted for your reference, all text between the [] marks are our comments: Hetao Hong Kong Park 67. We will seek approval from the Legislative Council (the LegCo) to inject a funding of $10billion to the park company to accelerate the development of the Hetao Hong Kong Park by engaging the market to speed up the disposal of the remaining land parcels under Phase 1 development, providing key infrastructure, further strengthening support to start‑ups and establishing a venture fund. [comment: going headlong into tech investment with tax payer money can be a bottomless drain on HK’s limited resources? How can a small city match the US$trns of private money by state scale mega corps with all the expertise? See chart below Also how can a single tiny city of 1100sq km match the collective land resources that big nations can deploy in building (see map below)? Isn’t HK’s advantage in hubbing and spoking rather than competing in brute hardware arms race? There is a case for limited hardware for catering to HK’s unique offshore needs, but most of that can be done by leasing in China – like bonded warehouses? HK simply is not in the league so please do not play the ambulance chasing game? When China is but a fraction of EU/US, how can HK’s tiny footprint even catch up? See chart below: ] Patient Capital 89. Since its full operation, the HKIC has invested in over 190 projects spanning various fields, which mainly include hard and core technology, life technology, new energy and green technology. Ten of the investee companies are already listed in Hong Kong, with a further 20preparing for listing this year. Every dollar invested by the HKIC attracted over eight dollars of long‑term capital investment, effectively drawing "patient capital" from the global market to jointly expedite the development and innovative application of frontier technologies. Considering that the initial capital of the HKIC of $62 billion has been largely allocated, we will arrange for capital injection in a timely manner to further promote I&T development and industry clustering. [comment: again, using tax payer money to fling into speculative early stage investment was the result of zero interest rate days, this is no longer the case, time to stop and privatise the HKIC rather than adding burden to the people] ​ Facilitate Asset Management by Enterprises 103. To enhance the business environment and facilitate internal restructuring by enterprises, we propose to relax the criteria for stamp duty relief in relation to the intra‑group transfer of assets. [comment: this is what HK does best and should focus on, including cutting taxes] ​ Enhance the Regulatory Regime 119. To strengthen the regulation of money lenders, the Government will release the consultation outcome and specific measures next month to address the issue of excessive borrowing and better protect the public. [comment: being too paternalistic is generally bad for HK’s flexibility and entrepreneurial flare, stay away from overarching regulations please!] ​ Attract Enterprises and Investment 128. …Policy tools include land grant arrangements, financial subsidies and tax incentives. The preferential tax rates will be half‑rate or fivepercent. We will introduce an amendment bill this year. [comment: this is what HK does best, just provide the land resources so businesses don’t pay higher taxes through much higher rents than necessary ] ​ High Value‑Added Maritime Services 145. …to enhance tax concession measures for the maritime service industry and provide a half‑rate tax concession to eligible commodities traders. ​ 146. … permitting dual registration arrangement. [comment: why not slash the overall tax rates instead of creating so many pools of ‘favoured’ tax areas that complicates the admin and makes rent seeking?] ​ Attracting Talents 175. …We launched the $3billion Frontier Technology Research Support Scheme last year to align with the country's strategic plan for frontier technology development. [comment: again, govt will always be slow vs private sector – instead of throwing money about, the govt should lower cost (price/rents?) by increasing supply] ​ Sports Industry 192. We will inject $1.2billion into the sports portion of the Arts and Sport Development Fund to further promote sports development, …and developing sports as an industry through the "M" Mark System. [comment: lack of population and training grounds will not make it easy… is this too grand an ambition for a city?] Cultural and Creative Industries 194. …A total of over $9billion has been injected into the CreateSmart Initiative and the Film Development Fund. [comment: it is good to see some good movies, but should this be coming from the private sector? Is tax payer money best spent at their own discretion?] ​ Achieving the Dual Carbon Targets 198. We are actively implementing the Hong Kong's Climate Action Plan 2050, as we strive to reduce our carbon emissions by half from the 2005 levels before 2035 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2050. [comment: this is a dangerous bureaucratic driven initiative which the USA is walking away from, HK should also abandon this expensive and life-standard lowering ‘ideal’] ​ Electric Vehicles 207. …The first registration tax (FRT) …concession arrangement for electric private cars will not be extended beyond its expiry at the end of March this year. [comment: good to remove the visible hand from the market of cars ] ​ Land Development and Infrastructure 211. …seek funding approval from the LegCo for injecting an initial capital of $10billion to support its initial operation and development needs, thereby facilitating its operation to commence by the middle of this year. [comment: will this be another science park, cyberport, or cruise terminal? Ensure it is not led by civil servants who have no experience in running businesses in their lives?] ​ Land Supply 216. In view of the vacancy rate in the non-residential property market, the supply and demand, the Government will not put up general commercial sites for sale in the coming year. In addition, the HKIC will collaborate with regional and international long-term capital to channel funds into high-quality commercial property projects that align with Hong Kong's industrial positioning and match them with enterprises from target industries. [comment: no more land for private market, all the land for govt driven … dare one say… ‘white elephant’ projects?] ​ Promote Application of Innovation and Technology 227. The Construction Innovation and Technology Fund serves to promote the industry‑wide application of I&T, thereby enhancing productivity and site safety as well as reducing construction costs. We will inject $1billion into the fund to continue supporting industry development. [comment: hmm… ] ​ 235. DEVB is conducting a comprehensive review of the Operation Building Bright 2.0 to draw up a new subsidy scheme. We will earmark $3billion accordingly. Moreover, we will allocate $1billion to extend the Lift Modernisation Subsidy Scheme to provide subsidies to property owners. [comment: everyone will welcome some free money – but govt subsidies usually cause prices to rise where private sector would save before… ] ​ Public Finance 252. …As a result of the robust stock market and an accelerated economic growth, revenue from stamp duties and profits tax has increased by nearly $50billion in total compared to the original estimate. In 2025‑26, the Operating Account will return to a surplus ahead of schedule, while the Consolidated Account will be broadly balanced after taking into account the net proceeds from bond issuance. [comment: sadly no tax cuts… which benefits HK’s international competitiveness on all fronts?] 253. …The Capital Account will nevertheless still record a deficit annually, mainly due to a high level of capital works expenditure. …we will meet the financing needs by suitably increasing bond issuance. During the period, fiscal reserves are expected to gradually increase to over $700 billion. [comment: higher reserve but funded by debt issuance? ] ​ Strictly Containing the Growth of Operating Expenditure 258. We will take forward the Productivity Enhancement Programme as planned. …the Government's recurrent expenditure will be cut by two per cent in both 2026‑27 and 2027‑28, delivering further savings of about $7.8 billion and $15.6billion respectively over 2025‑26. ​ 259. The civil service establishment will be reduced by twopercent in each of the coming two financial years to an estimated level of about 188000posts by 1 April 2026, resulting in a cumulative deletion of over 10000posts within this term of Government. [comment: much needed public sector reduction most welcome ] ​ Increasing Revenue 261. On increasing revenue, …: (a) The rates of stamp duty on residential property transactions valued above $100million will be raised from 4.25percent to 6.5percent, affecting about 0.3percent of residential property transactions. It is estimated that revenue will increase by about $1billion per annum. …; and (b) Last year, we …imposing the global minimum tax and implementing the Hong Kong minimum top‑up tax on large multinational enterprise groups with an annual consolidated revenue of or above EUR750million. This measure is expected to bring in an additional tax revenue of about $15billion for the Government annually starting from 2027‑28. [comment: is there any way we do not follow the high tax suicidal EU madness?] ​ Consolidating Funds Established Outside the Government's Accounts 262. …we have brought back $61.5 billion from six seed capital funds with a relatively large unspent balance to the Government's accounts for optimising the use of government financial resources. I have also instructed various policy bureaux to conduct a full review of the remaining 36 purpose‑specific funds established outside the Government's accounts. After carefully assessing the individual circumstances of the funds, we propose: (a) revising the financial arrangements of four funds to bring back their unspent balances, on the premise of supporting their operations in the next five years; (b) closing a fund which has accomplished its policy objectives and two funds for which objectives can be met more effectively under the established funding mechanism, and bringing back their unspent balances; (c) consolidating six funds into three for enhanced efficiency in the use of resources; and …The above measures are expected to bring back about $15.8 billion to the Government's accounts in 2026‑27. [comment: in future all ‘funds’ should have sunset clauses as a basic condition, and subject to regular audits ] ​ Bond Issuance 266. …The Government's capital works expenditure is estimated to be about $128billion for 2026‑27. Capital works expenditure will remain at a similar level during the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) period. 268. …the NM and other public works projects [means] we plan to raise the total borrowing ceiling of the two bond programmes from $700billion announced last year to $900billion. About $160billion to $220billion worth of bonds will be issued in each of the next five years, … 269. …government debt to GDP will rise from 14.4 per cent to 19.9 per cent [comment: OUCH! ] ​ 275. 二零二六／二七年度政府整體開支將上升約百分之六點九至八千四百三十四億元，相當於名義本地生產總值的百分之二十四點二。 [comment: ] Supporting People and Enterprises 279. (a) …rates concession for domestic properties for the first two quarters of 2026/27, subject to a ceiling of $500 for each rateable property. This measure is estimated to involve about 3.15million domestic properties and reduce government revenue by about $3.1billion; (b) …rates concession for non‑domestic properties for the first two quarters of 2026/27, subject to a ceiling of $500 for each rateable property. This measure is estimated to involve about 440000 non‑domestic properties and reduce government revenue by about $400million; (c) reduce salaries tax and tax under personal assessment for the year of assessment 2025/26 by 100percent, subject to a ceiling of $3,000. The reduction will be reflected in the final tax payable for the year of assessment 2025/26. This measure will benefit about 2.12million taxpayers and reduce government revenue by about $5.3billion; (d) reduce profits tax for the year of assessment 2025/26 by 100percent, subject to a ceiling of $3,000. The reduction will be reflected in the final tax payable for the year of assessment 2025/26. This measure will benefit about 171000businesses and reduce government revenue by about $500million; and (e) provide an allowance for eligible social security recipients, equal to one month of the standard rate CSSA payments, Old Age Allowance, Old Age Living Allowance or Disability Allowance, while similar arrangements will also apply to recipients of the Working Family Allowance, altogether involving an additional expenditure of about $6.5billion. [comment: small favours intended to overshadow the debt explosion? ] ​ 280. (a) increasing the basic allowance and single parent allowance from $132,000 to $145,000, and the married person's allowance from $264,000 to $290,000. This measure will benefit about 2.09million taxpayers and reduce tax revenue by about $3.56billion a year; (b) increasing the child allowance and additional child allowance from $130,000 to $140,000. This measure will benefit about 360000 taxpayers and reduce tax revenue by about $680million a year; and (c) increasing the allowance for maintaining a dependent parent or grandparent and raising the deduction ceiling for elderly residential care expenses. These measures will benefit about 830000taxpayers and reduce tax revenue by about $970million a year. I will make the following three adjustments: · increasing the allowance for maintaining a dependent parent or grandparent aged 60 or above from $50,000 to $55,000. The same increase applies to the additional allowance for taxpayers residing with these parents or grandparents; ​ · increasing the allowance for maintaining a dependent parent or grandparent aged 55 to 59 from $25,000 to $27,500. The same increase applies to the additional allowance for taxpayers residing with these parents or grandparents; and ​ · raising the deduction ceiling for elderly residential care expenses from $100,000 to $110,000 for taxpayers whose parents or grandparents are admitted to eligible residential care homes. [comment: more complications designed to give more jobs to tax consultants? The temptation to increase complexity by govt is always there, the challenge is to remove as many tiers and rates and thresholds rather than adding more of them… ] ​ Details can be found here: https://www.budget.gov.hk/2026/eng/index.html​

【Metro Radio】 新城財經台 新城地產街 20260117

 載於2026年01月17日 【Metro Radio 新城地產街】 

主題: 

》閣下如何看今年投資環境？

》美聯局將於本月議息，閣下對美息走勢預測如何？今年預期美國減息機會及幅度？美債及美匯走勢如何？ 

》發展商推盤積極，策略部署如何？庫存？

》新盤採招標方式銷售向來受到市場關注，一手盤招標指引，取消三房或以上單位招標限制，首次容許兩房或以上位招標，可招標銷售單位面積由753呎放寬至538呎，閣下認為，放寬後對樓市有否影響？會否明顯推高樓價？有何考量？

》去年本港整體樓價如何？估計今年全年樓市走勢？

》今年本港經濟走向？經濟環境與樓市關係？

主持: 林潔瑩

新城連結

東方日報專訪 Oriental Daily Interview Global Economics + HK Property 20260112

聲明:所有傳媒發布的訪問內容只代表撰文者之理解，可能與本博客作者的分析或結論不同，或存有偏差。  

General Disclaimer – where quoted in media reports, your correspondent does not exercise control on editorial policy and therefore what appears in the publication may not coincide, or even rarely, contradict your correspondent’s views…  

載於2026年01月12日

 

東方日報B1：債市隨時爆　樓價恐尋底 20260112

過去兩年，恒生指數累計上升逾50%，但同期單計二手樓價指數卻微跌0.1%，股市的正面財富效應並未如上世紀90年代、千禧年代一般惠及樓市。本報專訪著名地產分析師──Bricks & Mortar Management主席兼總裁王震宇，探討這背後原因，並表示更大的危機可能在前頭，包括多國的長期國債孳息率已急升，反映市場對主權信用的信心動搖，聯儲局有機會掉頭加息等，都顯示國際金融中心的房地產危機隱現。

市場普遍預期，今年任誰來當聯儲局主席，美國都會在總統特朗普的「長官意志」下繼續減息，全年最少減一厘似乎沒有懸念。然而，王震宇力排眾議，揚言加息的大勢不可逆，連總統也不行。原因之一是全球化在2010年代已開始逆轉，並在近年因為美國貿易戰而急速由全球化變成地區化。這將導致各國輸入成本上升、產品價格上升，從而導致通脹上升。

至於加息重臨的另一主因，是主權債務惡化，就算過往被視為絕對穩陣的美國債券，如今也危如累卵。美國財政部數據顯示，美債最大支持者為日本，惟王震宇再深入地指出，這不是日本政府層面購美債，是日本企業出手買，「日本人買美國國債，係佢唔信自己啲國債……你睇依家日本央行得閒就話加息，係因為通脹太高，咁你啲日債好極有限，所以唔會有人買日債，佢(日本企業)咪買美債囉。」

至於第二大美債持有國的英國，他說：「都唔知英國係咪做咗美國嘅白手套，差唔多係佢(英國)撐住個美債。」全球最穩陣的美國、日本國債都難以倚靠，歐洲的國債更加是從去年9月見到問題浮現。他指，當月無論法國或英國都見新發行的國債滯銷。所謂見微知著，「呢個代表，過去約70年時間政府愈使愈大、甩唔到嘅陋習，開始要埋單」。多國政府經已債台高築，長債崩潰或只是時間問題。

如果單看歐洲，他不諱言，本次的危機較2010年代前後發生的歐債危機更加兇險，原因是「當時德國仲未經濟自殺」。他解釋，作為歐洲最大經濟體的德國，近期將核電廠、煤電廠清拆，改為使用難以預測發電量的風電、太陽能。另外，又因為要制裁俄羅斯，終止了北溪天然氣管道的輸氣。「咁搞到佢無得買便宜的俄羅斯能源，改買好貴嘅美國能源」。能源供應不穩，能源價格上升漸漸在日常中顯現，影響經濟，包括福士汽車(內地稱大眾汽車)在內的多間德國車廠廠房相繼要結業、關門或停運便是一例。

就算是去年美國、日本、南韓、台灣等地股市暴漲，王震宇亦視之為危機出現前的一些表像，因為升市都主要集中在幾隻人工智能(AI)或晶片股所帶動，未惠及普遍產業。要知道全球資產最大的配置就在債市，一旦債市爆煲，國際金融中心資產將會出現大幅降價的問題，香港的房地產亦包括在內。 

【理財新世代】 回顧與前瞻：香港房地產市場 20251227

2025年12月27日

背景：

2025年香港房地產市場終於企穩，2026能否重拾昔日升勢？還是仍然有待觀察？

樓市以外，香港房地產市場另外兩大板塊：商廈市場及酒店前景又是如何？

1. 反映二手樓價的中原城市指數顯示樓價從2021年高位回落近30%後，到了2025年跌幅明顯放緩，3月份跌至低位大概135的水平後，開始有平穩跡象，至今CCL大約是143的水平，先總結一下今年樓價終於止跌回穩，主要原因為何？預計全年總成交量及金額為多少？和昔日高峰相比為何？

2. 今年一手新盤的定價仍然比較進取，有否數據反映2025年一手總銷售額及銷售量為何？比較之前兩年，是否也見好轉？預計來年發展商定價，是否仍然進取？

3. 香港樓市是否已經過了最差時期？還是言之尚早？原因為何？

4. 以前大部份香港人認為買樓是必贏的投資工具，但呢幾年大家見到原來買樓係會輸的，包括中央政府仍然表明住房不炒的政策方針，這方向是否已為香港長遠樓市帶來指引？

5. 另外一個結構性改變是隨著大灣區一小時生活圈的交通配套，逐漸形成，往返兩地十分頻繁，但深圳樓的性價比較香港吸引，目前香港和深圳樓價差幅有多大？香港樓價是否仍然具備溢價的競爭優勢？從現在每日深港兩地即日往返人數來看，能否看見一些趨勢？ 

6. 美國剛剛又減息，明年息口走勢是如何？香港會否完全跟隨？對樓市影響？

7. 分析了很多住宅市場的表現，但另外兩個板塊：零售租務及甲級商廈，今年似乎仍未見完全復甦，今年的表現又是如何？明年能否好轉？原因？

8. 展望2026年，今年利好香港房地產的因素在2026年能否得以持續，繼續支持樓價企穩，甚至向好？對2026年香港房地產預測為何？包括：中小型住宅、豪宅、商廈租金、甲級寫字樓及零售市場的價格升/跌幅預測為何？

9. 最後，投資策略應如何分配？投資者最需要留意的風險因素又是什麼？

報導來源：香港電台【理財新世代】

https://www.rthk.hk/tv/dtt31/programme/investmentera_tv/episode/998869

特此鳴謝

監製：李以莊

主持：黃瑋傑、彭藹嬈

攝影及剪接: 香港電台公共事務組

對手挑戰勢洶湧，香港交易須加時？ 20251126

 對港人而言，投資美股幾乎是證券投資的基本動作。每當有人提到昨夜又開通宵，常聞問曰：「又炒美股呀？」可見美股在港人證券投資的比重何其之高。美國交易所似乎亦欲在亞洲時段吸納亞洲投資者日漸龐大的財富，因而有報謂紐約證券交易所（下稱【紐交所】）正研究延長交易時間（見此），將休市時段縮至僅兩小時（見【圖一】底棒所示）：

圖一：紐交所和倫敦交易所俱有延長交易時間的計劃 

 

與此同時，對岸的倫敦交易所（下稱【倫交所】）據報（見此）亦積極研究如何增加交易時數，至更為進取的「全天候」服務（見上圖第二條棒）！

證券市場環球化　交易時段無休止？
隨著資訊流通越趨發達，兼網上交易普及，跨境投資與「隨時入市」的需求必會穩步上升。以下為環球主要交易所在一日24小時內的交易時間分布：

圖二：全球主要股票交易所交易時間的分佈

 

亞洲交易所：本地為尊
上表【紅色】區域顯示，亞洲大多數交易所仍以服務本地投資者爲主：早上九時後開盤、下午五時前已鳴金收兵，更有個別地域保留長達兩小時的午休時段（黃色區域）。值得留意的是，除澳洲證券交易所與日本交易所較早開市外，大部分亞洲與歐洲主要市場仍具一定重疊時段，有利跨區交易。

歐洲時區：左右逢源，得天獨厚！
上表【綠色】區域所代表的歐洲、中東及非洲時區具有一個天然的優勢：既承接亞洲交易，亦接軌美洲時段！不出所料，德國人的勤奮在法蘭克福交易所交易時段全面反映：彼開市與杜拜同步之餘，更在收市上比倫敦更遲；甚至比美加股市晚兩小時打烊！

第二進取的非杜拜交易所莫屬：雖比倫敦時區早四小時，卻刻意早其一小時開市、兼在倫交所收市一小時後方歇業，積極搶佔時段優勢。歐洲的地理位置令該區交易所能在亞洲市場收盤前承接市勢，並無縫交棒予美國，發揮連貫市場流動的重要橋樑作用。理解此結構後，不難明白倫敦交易所倡議延長交易時段【淺綠區域】的原因——盡覽全日所有時區的交易量。

美國市場：最須延長交易時段
美國股市獨霸全球，其兩大交易所包攬達49萬億美元市值的股票，超越全球其他主要交易所的總和（約45萬億美元）；總成交額方面更達50萬億美元，較其他市場的合計值高出一截（以上皆為2023年數據）。在這樣的基礎上，美國若延長交易時間，帶來的實際效益可能比對手所能達到的更為可觀。

延長交易時數是否確實有用？
為解答以上疑問，筆者將成交量對市值比例與交易時間長短作對比，結果如下：

圖三：成交量／市值比對交易時數

 

乍看下，似乎兩者間毫無關連：
一）美國兩大交易所（紐交所與納斯達克，上圖被【藍線】貫穿）雖交易時段偏短，但成交量與市值比卻居全球開放市場之首；
二）反觀中國的上交所與深交所，雖屬全球交易日最短市場之一，成交頻率卻異常高。

除了資本管制鎖住流動性外，筆者相信中國市場的極高交易頻率可能歸根於國內有限的投資選擇／渠道，及甚高的散戶參與比例，如下圖所示：

圖四：成交量／市值比與散戶參與程度似有關連

 

顯而易見，散戶持股佔約八成的內地交易所，似乎符合「高散戶比例＝快成交週轉」此一假設。若剔除內地交易所，其他市場的成交流轉率似乎與每日交易時數關連不大──雖然多數交易所都在5－7小時區間內，但流轉率卻分散甚廣，由十多至百多個百分點都有：

圖五：成交量／市值比對交易時數（摒除上交所+深交所）

 

值得留意的是倫敦證交所：儘管交易時段頗長，卻在效率表現上大大落後，顯示或有其他結構上因素，如估值偏低、監管繁重、令其市場吸引力不足？可見，延長交易時段只是資本市場環球競爭下其中一項策略，而非萬應靈丹。

香港：須鬆綁升級延時
整體而言，本港應何去何從？筆者認為，港交所可考慮三大方向增加吸引力：
一）放鬆管制，及減輕證監會日趨嚴苛的干預應可吸引更多企業上市，並提高市場活躍度；
二）內地政策支援，如在地緣政治風險升溫下協助中資企業回流香港上市，此趨勢料可延續多年；
三）檢視並延長交易時段，甚至包括取消午餐休息；在各大競爭對手紛紛伸延交易時間的今天，此一改變似乎難以避免。

這些改革應可提升港交所競爭力（如：未來ADR的成交量亦回歸本土）；當有一天本港股市終於追上美國兩強時，環球投資者必會稱許可隨時隨地交易港股的方便，從此無須半夜爬起床買港股。


筆者特別鳴謝香港中文大學計量金融學系王俊淇同學及香港中文大學系統工程與工程管理學系鄧鈞寳同學協助收集及整理本文相關數據及圖表。