加密貨幣：三個月後 牛市重臨？20260817

本文為原文於2026年8月17日發表之文章的中文譯本。

全球政府在高杠桿、高福利壓力下，已不顧一切地苛捐重賦以填補日益膨脹的財政赤字。加密貨幣自然是彼等眼中的一塊肥豬肉，例如：

• 日本將加密貨幣歸類為金融資產，以便更嚴格地實施監管，及實行「減稅政策」云云［筆者：所有新稅最終當然都是只加不減］；

• 歐盟（DAC8）和英國（CARF）的新法規強迫加密貨幣平台收集2026年用戶交易數據，為2027年標準化稅務報告鋪路；

• 美國藉威嚇泰達幣（Tether）中心化的管控機制，凍結了數以億計與伊朗相關的資金。

隨著越來越多投資者轉向不受政府操控隱私幣（privacy coin），其未來的回報似乎會更加搶眼：門羅幣（Monero）自2024年底已較比特幣上漲3倍，而且再跑贏多4倍亦不出奇：

圖一：門羅幣對比特幣升勢可人？ 

由技術層面觀察，亦見數項指標開始證實加密貨幣接近見底的假設，以下逐項剖析：

指標一：TRIX指標

每當TRIX指標（下方紅線）跌破綠色趨勢線，通常乃比特幣價格見底之時，下一次發生時間，似是2026年底前後，亦即下一波上升周期應在數月、甚至幾周之外：

圖二：比特幣周期底部與TRIX指標關係 

指標二：比特幣減半前74週見底規則？

若以減半（Halving）的時間來審視比特幣週期，不難發現其價格通常會在下一輪減半前72至75周左右見底（【圖三】藍色水平箭嘴）。若以下一輪減半之大約日子（2028年4月中旬）倒數，則下一輪價格底部可能會在2026年11月初出現（最右側垂直虛綫所在處）：

圖三：比特幣歷史減半周期與幣價見底之關係 

指標三：大平台倒閉潮？

當行業巨頭接連倒閉那刻，往往也正是周期見底之時。近期這類事件亦不止一起，如BitMEX最近宣布停止營運的消息；下圖總結了類似事件於過去價格循環例子：

圖四：比特幣走勢與歷次黑天鵝事件底部對比 

指標四：接近與其他資產價格比例的重要支持位

比特幣疲軟價格可能很快就會觸及其與標普500指數（S&P 500）比例的長線支持位（【圖五】黃線），就算連持價位亦跌破，亦已甚接近該關係的趨勢底部（橙色通道，方箭嘴末端）。時間應在10月初附近，意味著再過數周，比特幣有望跑贏標普（當然後者亦可能下跌，造成兩者皆輸的局面）：

圖五：比特幣對標普500指數比例：反彈在望？ 

但黃金的情況又如何？如【圖六】所示，黃金有機會已經站穩陣腳，並試圖再度反彈：

圖六：現貨黃金百年歷史月線趨勢：地緣政治下即將爆升？ 

金價如果突破5,500美元，可能會引發下一波衝向9,000美元（下方箭嘴）；但若果第三次世界大戰爆發，金價還會漲得更高（上方箭嘴）。然而在黃金如此强勢的情況下，比特幣的表現並不遜色：

圖七：比特幣對黃金的動量指標似已見底 

目前比特幣兌黃金價格的Z值已經達到極端（處-0.86的歷史低位），且上一輪四年周期亦將在11月末到期（【圖七】右端之垂直虛綫），未來幾年比特幣的表現甚至會超越黃金？！

有見與此，希望抓住下一波上升周期的投資者或許應開始準備為10至11月間築倉作好準備？

筆者特別鳴謝香港大學蘇雅蕾同學協助收集及整理本文相關數據及圖表。

Crypto prices - next bull market by November 2026? 20260817

The over leveraged and over welfare burdened governments around the world will keep hunting for taxes to fund their deficits. Crypto is now one avenue they focus on, here are some recent developments:

• Japan reclassified cryptocurrencies as financial assets, enabling stricter regulation, potential crypto ETFs, and a planned tax reduction [but of course will be followed by future hikes?], see Article 2;
• EU (DAC8) and UK (CARF) rules now require crypto platforms to collect 2026 user transaction data to generate standardized tax reports in 2027 (Article 3);
• U.S. leaned on Tether’s centralized control to freeze hundreds of millions in Iran-linked funds (Article 4).

Is it any wonder that privacy coins may now be the new super outperformers as more holders seek refuge in cryptos that are out of govt control by design? For example, Monero is up 3x vs BTC since late 2024, and could 4x again from here:

Indicator 1 - Trix indicator

But perhaps you don't have to wait much longer for even Bitcoin to shine? According to some metrics we follow, we are months, if not weeks away from the next upturn... For example, the Trix indicator (red line below), when it crosses below the green trend line, usually marks the bottom of BTC prices, and the date axis suggests late 2026:

To view the BTC cycle using time before halfing, it seems BTC prices usually trough around 72-75 weeks before the halving that follows (see blue horizontal arrows below). If we draw the same period ahead of the next halfing, estimated in mid-Apr 2028, then the next trough may be hit by early Nov 2026 (rightmost dotted vertical line):

Indicator 2 - big platform collapse?

When big sector behemoths go belly up, it often coincides a price bottom; and we may have had more than one such incident of late - Bitmex just announced it will close down (Article 1), and the timing is summarised in this chart:

Indicator 3 - long term supports vs other assets near

The weak crypto market may soon hit a multi-year support vs S&P500 (yellow line below), or at its worst, when it hits the trend bottom (end of arrow below) of the relationship. The likely timing is early October, suggesting we are within weeks of outperformance (of course S&P could tank more):

But what about gold? The yellow metal seems to be finding its footing and is beginning to rally again, as seen here:

A break above $5500 could lead to the next run towards $9000 (lower arrow), and if WW3 scenario plays out, even higher (upper arrow). Against such a strong comparable, BTC is not looking too shabby:

With the Z-score of BTC/gold hitting extremes already, and a likely 4-year cycle coming into view by late November (last verticle dotted line above), BTC could even beat gold in the coming years?!

So for those who want to catch the next upturn, now may be a good time to get allocations in place for the Oct/Nov window?

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Article 1: Cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX to shut down

Article 2: Japan reclassifies crypto as a financial asset, paves way for tax cuts

Article 3: How EU and UK crypto platforms are already building your 2027 tax report

Article 4: US turns stablecoin issuer Tether into a financial weapon against Iran, freezing nearly $500 million