Crypto prices - next bull market by November 2026?

The over leveraged and over welfare burdened governments around the world will keep hunting for taxes to fund their deficits. Crypto is now one avenue they focus on, here are some recent developments:

• Japan reclassified cryptocurrencies as financial assets, enabling stricter regulation, potential crypto ETFs, and a planned tax reduction [but of course will be followed by future hikes?], see Article 2;
• EU (DAC8) and UK (CARF) rules now require crypto platforms to collect 2026 user transaction data to generate standardized tax reports in 2027 (Article 3);
• U.S. leaned on Tether’s centralized control to freeze hundreds of millions in Iran-linked funds (Article 4).

Is it any wonder that privacy coins may now be the new super outperformers as more holders seek refuge in cryptos that are out of govt control by design? For example, Monero is up 3x vs BTC since late 2024, and could 4x again from here:

Indicator 1 - Trix indicator

But perhaps you don't have to wait much longer for even Bitcoin to shine? According to some metrics we follow, we are months, if not weeks away from the next upturn... For example, the Trix indicator (red line below), when it crosses below the green trend line, usually marks the bottom of BTC prices, and the date axis suggests late 2026:

To view the BTC cycle using time before halfing, it seems BTC prices usually trough around 72-75 weeks before the halving that follows (see blue horizontal arrows below). If we draw the same period ahead of the next halfing, estimated in mid-Apr 2028, then the next trough may be hit by early Nov 2026 (rightmost dotted vertical line):

Indicator 2 - big platform collapse?

When big sector behemoths go belly up, it often coincides a price bottom; and we may have had more than one such incident of late - Bitmex just announced it will close down (Article 1), and the timing is summarised in this chart:

Indicator 3 - long term supports vs other assets near

The weak crypto market may soon hit a multi-year support vs S&P500 (yellow line below), or at its worst, when it hits the trend bottom (end of arrow below) of the relationship. The likely timing is early October, suggesting we are within weeks of outperformance (of course S&P could tank more):

But what about gold? The yellow metal seems to be finding its footing and is beginning to rally again, as seen here:

A break above $5500 could lead to the next run towards $9000 (lower arrow), and if WW3 scenario plays out, even higher (upper arrow). Against such a strong comparable, BTC is not looking too shabby:

With the Z-score of BTC/gold hitting extremes already, and a likely 4-year cycle coming into view by late November (last verticle dotted line above), BTC could even beat gold in the coming years?!

So for those who want to catch the next upturn, now may be a good time to get allocations in place for the Oct/Nov window?

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Article 1: Cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX to shut down

Article 2: Japan reclassifies crypto as a financial asset, paves way for tax cuts

Article 3: How EU and UK crypto platforms are already building your 2027 tax report

Article 4: US turns stablecoin issuer Tether into a financial weapon against Iran, freezing nearly $500 million