HK economics - recovery distorted by base effect

Good 2021 growth figures, but...

After the atrocious contractions of 2020 thanks to lockdowns, recent forecasts on 2021 GDP have turned distinctly rosy, ranging from 3.3% to 4.2% and averaging 3.8% growth. 

However, given the traumatic falls of 2020, these growth figures may still not be enough to take us back to pre-lockdown levels, and the chart below demonstrates this disconnect due to base effect:

Chart 1 : YoY economic growth forecasts mask low base in 2020

 

The year-on-year growth in GDP (blue line above, extended by forecasts of 2021 represented by yellow line) may appear strong, but if we were to compare this year's performance to pre-lockdown levels, as represented by 2-year changes (red line) , normalcy will not return until Q1 22. The positive blip in the red line in Q3 21 is the result of a bad comparable Q3 19 when the street protests disrupted economic activities.

In fact, the current recession looks much more like the post-dot-com/SARS one in 2001-3 than the GFC episode in 2009-10, as the latter bounced back much faster. Given the shape of the current recovery, 2021 will remain below 2019 levels for sure, and probably 2022 as well.

Return to 2018 unlikely until 2023 at the earliest

So when is the most likely time we will see the economy return to pre-lockdown days? Perhaps not widely known, HK's economy actually peaked in 2018, and has been on a downtrend in 2019 (protests) and 2020 (lockdowns), this year's recovery is yet uncertain, as it depends on how quickly the govt reopens the economy to normal business.

Even assuming immediate opening, which most market forecasts probably factored in already, we are unlikely to see the economic level return to 2018 peak levels until 2023, as the arrows in the chart below suggest:

Chart 2 - Indexed GDPs suggest return to 2018 peak after 2022

If lockdowns are extended, or global travel opening were delayed, the 2023 recapturing of prior high becomes even less probable. As a reference to the last big recession - the 2000 peak was only recaptured in 2004; we reckon the 2018 peak will most likely be retaken in 2023 at the earliest, if the side effects of lockdowns/money printing/supply chain destruction do not stoke second order economic problems or worse political unrests before we get there.

 

機場「迫」在眉睫 擴容刻不容緩

喺香港投資有樣好處，就係樣樣實物資產都係新供應低，唔似內地咁任何花錢可以起得出嚟嘅建築物都保證係大白象滿地，導致資本浪費、無謂競爭、兼服務水準低落。不過，香港嘅好處喺政府近年施政寸步難行及缺乏遠見下已經成為未來發展嘅絆腳石——喺包括住宅供應（見筆者10年6月29日文：增加供應：政府在等觀音顯靈乎），陰宅供應（7月20日文：骨灰龕政策有思），寫字樓供應（10月26日文：寫字樓供應危機更甚於住宅），的士牌供應（11月16日文：利民兼紓資產泡沫財爺應解凍的士牌），遊艇位供應（11月23日文：香江衙門屢失先機遊艇樞紐勢拱手讓人）都係……各位可能一啲都唔意外筆者今日講本港機場，提及嘅又喺容量迫爆危機！此外本文亦比較吓競爭對手如何步步進逼，一到香港無能力接新生意之時（一定係早過你同我所料！），就冷手執個熱煎堆搶吾飯碗，到時香港又是只有怪自己唔上進！

12月28日，機管局慶祝咗客貨量雙雙破紀錄至5000萬人次及400萬公噸（全年實際數字最終為5095萬人同413萬噸，同比上升10.3%及23.4%），儀式期間運房局長鄭汝樺話現時計劃足可應付至2020年嘅要求。但係遠至2006年，機管局發表嘅《香港國際機場2025》已經預期2025年客運量會增至8000萬人次，兼喺結論中提到「香港國際機場必須提升跑道的容量」，包括興建第三條跑道。然而五年下來，起第三跑道呢個吾駛搵顧問公司做研究都知嘅結論似乎仲停留喺紙上談兵階段！如果《2025》報告內提及嘅中國民航局預測2010-20年中國客運量10%年增長率應用喺香港，咁我哋有機會喺2015年就超越咗報告內要到2025年先達到嘅8000萬人次水平，即係話，就算聽日即刻拍板去馬，第三跑道都可能已經太遲！

此外，前民航處長林光宇亦提到就算機管局把用量上限由每小時59架次，提升至68架次，機場亦將於2017年飽和（以6.5%年增長率計）。而且，呢個只係一個理論上嘅計算，實際上，繁忙時間已經迫爆咗，任何新航班都要喺三更半夜升降，咁點做國際航運中心？為今之計，只有喺開工起第三跑道嘅同時，開始著手整合港府持股嘅珠海機場為未來改為香港第二機場鋪路，或者更加遠見啲，直情同時開始搵地起第二機場！如果唔係，咁邊個為五至十年後香港機場爆棚負責？

相比之下，其他城市就長線規劃得多；如北京據報會喺今年3月啟動興建位於大興區，具6000萬人吞吐量嘅新機場！喺奧運新機場大樓完工三年唔到就放眼將來，未雨綢繆，咁先係有魄力㗎嗎！再以星加坡為例，彼邦喺1999年已經開始建造彰宜機場嘅T3樓，並喺2008年一月投入服務，令獅城嘅運載能力跳升至7000萬人次（去年嘅實際客量只有4000萬多啲），但星加坡毫無自滿，已經密鑼緊鼓規劃緊Terminal 4，並會喺10-15年內建成！最後，連小弟弟深圳都喺10年二月動工起T3（啱啱喺一月封頂）兼建第二條跑道（今年六月投入使用），令總吞吐量增至4500萬人次（09年實際數字：2200萬），可見只要有決心，起機場係可以高效交貨嘅。
香港，係時候發奮力追啦！