2020年2月12日星期三

東方日報專訪 20200212

載於2020年2月12日東方日報 (此報導雖不完全反映筆者觀點,但部分內容值得參考):

兩大專家齊嗌樓市高危

新冠肺炎疫情持續擴散,令自去年中已「見頂」回落的香港樓市更「雪上加霜」。兩大樓市專家Portwood Capital董事總經理卓百德(Peter Churchouse)及Bricks and Mortar主席兼總裁王震宇接受本報訪問,前者預期今年全年樓價最多跌13%,但認為「危中有機」,後者卻擔心美國短債債息失控,隨時成為本港樓市的「計時炸彈」。

卓百德估住宅跌價13%

卓百德指出,新冠肺炎的影響對樓市絕對是負面,此單一因素或拖累中國和全球經濟,直言目前情況並非常規的經濟分析工具可以預測,只能透過經驗、歷史等來入手。回顧九七年亞洲金融風暴,香港經濟經歷了六年通縮,樓價累計下挫了60%,○三年應是通縮的尾聲,但卻爆發了非典型肺炎(俗稱「沙士」),情況與如今有點相像。

回顧○三年上半年,本港住宅樓價累跌約9%,但疫情完結後樓價逐步回升,全年計樓價反而上升約5%。卓氏認為,目前樓價再要跌多少,需視乎要多久才可成功研發治療藥物,又或像當年「沙士」一樣,疫情隨着季節轉變而逐漸消失。

預期聯儲續推QE

他不看好疫情會在短期內解決,故調低了今年的樓價預測,由疫情前估計全年只跌7至8%,降至全年料跌12至13%。

儘管如此,卓氏認為,在疫情爆發前其實不乏好消息,尤其去年底起全球有多達35間央行減息或採取寬鬆貨幣政策,低息環境今年料持續,而美國聯儲局今年料不會加息,甚至有機會減息一次,並會繼續推出類似量化寬鬆(QE)的措施來增加流動性。

至於香港住宅供應長期低於政府預測,對樓價有支持作用,且港府自去年十月放寬按揭保險上限後,按揭申請大幅增加,顯示住宅需求一直強勁,而激烈的示威活動近日已相對平靜。

王震宇憂美債累港樓

據Bricks and Mortar主席兼總裁王震宇從宏觀角度分析,認為經濟上美國強、其他國家弱,為港樓埋下了下跌的危機。他首先撕破市場對美國聯儲局會再量化寬鬆(QE)的憧憬,直言「QE意思是買長債,聯儲局職責是控制長息」,但該局自去年九月起主力買入短期國債,令資產負債表再度擴張,亦暗示短債債息有失控之嫌。
他又指,近期新冠肺炎死亡率與流感相近,也較「沙士」兩、三成死亡率低,料影響非長久,情況不會十分惡劣。惟他認為,利率的影響卻不容小覷。


買股回報勝置業

王氏坦言,近年美國經濟太強,令加息去遏通脹的壓力漸增,相對歐洲多國和新興市場經濟卻在走下坡,「近年歐洲好多國家發債都冇人買,只是央行買,但央行錢從何來?都係同德國借,所以如果一間央行出事,成個歐洲金融系統會變得好大鑊」。因此,資金回流美國是正常事,惟他擔心聯儲局最終控制不了短債債息,同時香港本地資金亦會抽緊,港息隨時會高於美息,即使香港過去沒有跟足美國加息步伐,屆時香港加息或在所難免。

他又指,香港樓價對利率最敏感,呼籲未來一兩年買樓「避得就避」。他更身體力行,於去年底率先沽出所持擎天半島單位,認為買樓不如買地產股和內房股,其回報和升值潛力都較港樓佳。

2020年2月5日星期三

Why is HK full of white elephant monuments, and what can we do about them?

Posted on 4th Feb, 2020 Stand News :

The landslide loss of seats by the so called ‘royalist’ district councillors in November’s District Council Elections was followed by queries over whether they have faithfully served the community over the years while in power. One of the areas most criticised by the incoming councillors, and indeed the electors at large, has been how too many white elephant monuments have been erected during their rule, which seemed to publicise the names of these outgoing councillors and their pals in the government, with the same monuments serving dubious if non-existent benefit to the district at large. Some of the more well known (or mocked) monuments are listed below.

Table 1: Select “famous” white elephant projects around HK














Such ubiquity of ‘white elephants’ may be traced to the fact that since 2008, the 18 district councils combined started receiving an annual budget of HK$300m for the purpose of ‘district minor works’. Come 2013, the then Chief Executive CY Leung, boosted the handout to an even more generous HK$100m for EACH of 18 district councils!

With many of the district councils too lazy to consult the public and too confident in their own professional judgment and town planning expertise, the temptation became irresistible to splurge on image enhancing projects which had little bearing on improving local residents’ livelihoods and facilities.

Eye sores at the most prominent street corners
To take two busiest districts in HK as examples, otiose ‘vanity landmarks’ come in the form of the Goldfish Sculpture in Mong Kok (Figure 1) and the Golden Dragon Sculpture in Wan Chai (Figure 2). These two monstrosities not only occupy the primest locations in the city’s busiest thoroughfares, they were brought to you the tax payer at huge expenditure – both to build and to maintain. How these inutile objects may lift the spirits of the local residents is anybody’s guess.

Figure 1: the Goldfish Sculpture condemned by graffiti as ‘white elephant’ at the time photo was taken























Fig.2: the Golden Dragon Sculpture of utmost imperiousness



















What must puzzle most tax payers must be the question over why these contraptions, made out of plane cement and paint would cost millions to build? Compared to the extravagant HK$3m cost to erect the gaudy Golden Dragon Sculpture, would the Tai Chi bronze sculpture (Figure 3) in Exchange Square which was authored by the famous Taiwanese sculptor Ming JU, be a far more pleasing and inspring artifact? What is more, a bronze sculpture from the same Tai Chi series was sold at a 2009 auction for a mere HK$5 million. If the people of Wan Chai had the choice, would they have opted for the aggressive looking dragon or the graceful Tai Chi master?

The self important intention of erecting such monuments becomes amply clear when one looks at the inscriptions below the sculptures – the text is but an orgy of adulations and praises for those ‘celebrities’ involved in erecting the monument (Figure 4). No mention of course of what good the article would do the people who live nearby…

Figure 3: Ming JU’s Tai Chi man work in Exchange Square

















Figure 4: Mong Kok’s Goldfish Sculpture seems more a memorial to advertise dignitaries’ names than to promote the characteristics of the district




















Ivory tower administrator makes no green fingers 
With the ever expanding concrete jungle around us, people are increasingly being alienated from nature, which is not an ideal environment for health and mental wellness. When tree cover is progressively eliminated from urban space, even from sites sizable enough and conducive to being covered by trees, the only possible explanation must be bureaucratic obsession for convenience and ease of control.

Take the open space where the Goldfish Sculpture is situated, a thoughtfully planned cluster of mature ficus or camphor trees will have the miraculous effect of turning the current ugly and hostile collection of concrete boxes (Figure 5a) into an urban oasis (Figure 5b).

In terms of costs, planting mature trees roughly two storeys tall only costs HK$50,000-100,000 per tree. In other words, fully covering the 10,000 square-feet Goldfish site needs just a dozen or so trees, with an estimated total bill of less than HK$2m.

Figure 5a: Goldfish site in Nullah Road now – barren, plain, and dull











Figure 5b: After tree planting – whirling shades and calming greenery











The result cannot be further from the sorry situation people have to put up with every day – the island is now a bountiful area of shades where pedestrians can rest and take their minds off dreadful high density concrete structures bearing down on them.

Turning to Wan Chai’s Golden Dragon site next: with a site area of some 5,000 square feet, even six to seven mature trees will achieve similar greening effect as in Mong Kok above. The total cost for planting will also half to around HK$1m, with the same significantly enhanced therapeutic effect (Figure 6b) that the ghastly golden contraption (Figure 6a) can never match!

Figure 6a: Golden Dragon Sculpture – leaves you baked, drenched, and deafened










Figure 6b: With green cover – bird songs and insect chirps abound?











Retake our city - plant trees, and take out the white elephants 
The above tree-for-elephant philosophy of decorating urban open spaces may seem absolutely logical to the end users who are the local residents. Alas this is not the way mandarins/councilors in habiting air-conditioned offices think. As a result, we have gotten used to being deprived of what is rightfully ours, as they opt for the easy option of concrete pouring and mechanized lazy maintenance. This is why the city is overwhelmed with white elephant constructions which have no benefit to the residents whatsoever.

From an environmental science perspective, trees provide the best possible shelter for pedestrians and public space users alike, lowering the surface temperature in a hot climate city such as Hong Kong. In fact, the ability of tree shade to mitigate the ‘heat island effect’ is a shockingly high – not only is the shaded ground temperature several degrees lower than air temperature, the difference is even larger against concrete/bitumen road surfaces by close to a multiple (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Tree shades can reduce temperature by as much as 36℃ on a sunny day

























The above sustainable and yet economic urban management strategies are so common sense that it is unimaginable that they are not widely adopted all around HK already. In contrast, what we get are the expensive, tawdry, unsightly piles of waste costing millions of our money. We surmise that the flawed design of the urban management bureaucracy may be the main cause for HK’s white elephant phenomenon, this is explored below.

Cowboys leading experts + wrong mandates for the specialists = disaster
We suffer from overly centralized urban planning and management – this should be a function led from the user level, not from some remote administrator – the misallocation of expert resources is also a crucial factor contributing to the current plight we find ourselves in.

For example, there are 1.7m trees that may fall under the duty and care of some 137 certified arborists employed by various government departments (Table 2). However, there are vast discrepancies between the work load of these arborists:- the Highways Department, which oversees 600,000 trees (the highest amongst the departments), employs only 8 arborists; who would each be in charge of 80,000 trees on average. So if any of these specialists work the full 365 days a year, each still has 214 trees to check on every day!

Meanwhile, the 15 arborists in the Housing Department have a mere 18 trees per day to work on – the workload difference is a factor of 12 times!

Table 2: Tree responsibility by department – no apparent logic?

With such a haphazard allocation of resources and responsibilities on how HK’s greenery is maintained and enhanced, it is not surprising that all we see are trees being cut down or dying (from a multitude of causes: malnutrition, diseases, to overzealous felling in the name of safety), instead of plans, actions, or debates about how the green coverage can be enlarged or enhanced.

The establishment of the Greening, Landscape and Tree Management Section could have been the opportunity to address this structural deficiency, but this initiative also ended with a whimper. The crooked infrastructure continues to turn our arborist experts from potential tree conservation champions into tools of administrative execution.

Perhaps the only way urban greening can become an effective movement is by empowering a centralized arborist function, may be under the aegis of the AFCD, and with its own budget and mandate to greenify the city. Another way to add to this momentum would be to delegate local urban planning authority to the district councils so they have the power to drive the beautification of their own districts in fashions that local residents demand, with the help of this new centralized arborist team.

White elephants will continue to appear unless we address the structural issues of urban management, and it is high time major reforms were implemented to return power to the people and their gardeners.

The author wishes to thank Mr Kelvin Wong Siu Fung of the School of Communication, Hong Kong Baptist University for assisting in drafting this article, collecting data and compiling charts.