明報專訪 Mingpao Interview 2 of 2 - Global Economics + HK Property 20241014

聲明:所有傳媒發布的訪問內容只代表撰文者之理解，可能與本博客作者的分析或結論不同，或存有偏差。  

General Disclaimer - where quoted in media reports, your correspondent does not exercise control on editorial policy and therefore what appears in the publication may not coincide, or even rarely, contradict your correspondent's views...  

載於2024年10月14日

王震宇：申居屋入息限額過高 搶私樓客

【明報專訊】Bricks & Mortar Management主席兼總裁王震宇認為，本港政府近年過度介入房屋市場，嚴重影響自由市場運作，籲調整政策方向。

「居屋2024」二人或以上家庭入息限額為每月6萬元，顯著高於政府統計處公布的《綜合住戶統計調查按季統計報告》今年第二季從事經濟活動的家庭住戶每月入息中位數的39,200元。根據王震宇提供的數據，在1988至1989年居屋二人或以上家庭入息限額約1萬元，與當時有關每月入息中位數差距沒有現時那麼大。

王震宇認為，在過去30多年本港居屋二人或以上家庭入息限額大漲小回、累升數倍，反映政府希望愈來愈多人可以申請居屋，加上未來幾年居屋供應量料大增，令居屋與私人市場過度競爭，故他現時仍維持未來幾年私樓樓價趨跌的看法。

（本網發表的文章若提出批評，旨在指出相關制度、政策或措施存在錯誤或缺點，目的是促使矯正或消除這些錯誤或缺點，循合法途徑予以改善，絕無意圖煽動他人對政府或其他社群產生憎恨、不滿或敵意。）

明報記者 葉創成

行文至此，順帶重新連結往年房屋政策相關文章及報章專訪，再次拋磚引玉：

《明報專訪 Mingpao Interview 1 of 2 – Global Economics + HK Property 20240822》(網站，博客)

《香港公營房屋：改革一日不行 誇張報道無終 2022年5月》(博客)

《公營房屋膨脹無盡干預毒癮欲罷不能 2021年11月》(網站，博客)

《公屋改革面面觀─公屋「豪宅化」 2014年10月》(博客)

《公屋改革面面觀─結構性自我膨脹 2014年9月》(網站，博客)

《居屋政策 好心做壞事 2014年7月》(網站，博客)

【地產站Weekly Talk】減息後應投資磚頭？ 分析員王震宇教路宜放眼南半球

2024年10月7日 

香港經濟日報記者 潘淑盈

• 減息後，會否有更多資金流入樓市？為什麼？
• 減息後投資磚頭的回報是否比在銀行做定期存款理想？可以舉例嗎？
• 投資什麼類型的物業回報較高？
• 你建議投資者投資哪類物業？住宅回報仍較商廈吸引？
• 預計「供平過租」的年代何時會重現？為什麼？
• 另外，近期股市創新高，這有什麼啟示？對樓市會有何影響？

報導來源：HKET- 地產站Weekly Talk 

特此鳴謝

香港經濟日報記者：潘淑盈

攝影及剪接：梁鑑章

請前往作者YouTube頻道觀看更多視頻: 王震宇宇論 Yulun

General Disclaimer – where quoted in media reports, your correspondent does not exercise control on editorial policy and therefore what appears in the publication may not coincide, or even rarely, contradict your correspondent’s views… 

HK should resist unwarranted minimum wage encroachment

In a significant policy shift, HK’s Executive Council approved a wholesale expansion of the minimum wage regime (see here), including: 1) annual instead of biannual reviews; 2) adding economic growth on top of just inflation for basis of adjustment; 3) placing a floor on changes, ie minimum wages cannot be reduced, regardless of economic conditions. These recommendations, made by the Minimum Wage Commission, whilst well intended, will severely undermine HK’s ability as a small and open economy to adjust in a rapidly changing political/economic dynamics, and where labour as a production factor is increasingly challenged by technology and integration with China. The timing and direction both bode ill for the city’s wellbeing going forward.

Will HK fast lose its labour competitiveness vs peers?

To put the above ‘reforms’ in context, it is helpful to compare how HK’s current minimum wage numbers stack up against its global peers/competitors. Chart 1 below is ranked from high minimum wage to low order, with the highest 5 in red, the lowest 5 in blue, and the rest in green:

Chart 1:  Minimum annual wage from high to low by country

It is interesting to see that the lowest minimum wages are dominated by Asian economies – Indonesia, Vietnam, India, and Singapore (which does not have an official minimum wage, hence the bar reaches 0 on the chart). On the other hand, the highest minimum wages are found in rich and largely Anglo Saxon jurisdiction such as Switzerland, Australia, NZ, Ireland…

Look at this a different way, we arranged the countries in descending order of ‘average pay : minimum pay ratio’ and below is the outcome:

Chart 2: Ranking of ratio in average income to minimum wage

It appears that financial centre type economies dominate the high ratio end of the spectrum (top 5 in red markers), such as Singapore, US (via NYC / Chicago), HK, Luxembourg, reflecting how finance sector having a disproportionate contribution on the average income of the labour force. On the low ratio end (ie minimum wages set higher relative to average pay, blue markers), we see mostly manufacturing and farming economies, such as Poland, S Korea, NZ. It must be noted that in the above chart, Italy and Singapore do not have a formal minimum wage system, so their ratios are meaningless (so we identify their ratio with brown markers).

Represented in a two dimension way, we can see a norm emerge in the average-to-minimum pay ratio – obviously higher income countries can also afford higher minimum pay, and this explains why most of the countries follow the three dotted trend lines below:

Chart 3: higher the average pay, higher the minimum wage

 

Do high minimum wage lead to lower economic growth?

But how do we look at the big outliers against the trend? Obviously, the ratio as a measure of welfare is a significant factor that may impact a country’s economic performance, so we plotted this against recent growth record to reach this picture:

Chart 4: 10-year per capita GDP growth are higher in relatively lower minimum wage countries

Again, a clear trend is identifiable, but this time, the trend lines point to higher economic growth for higher average-to-minimum-wage ratios. The most extreme outliers with much higher ratios are labelled in red: Vietnam and China being the starkest examples. On the other extreme, Greece, Brazil, and Japan are lagging the most in economic growth coinciding with their respective low income ratios (blue label text).

Tax rates go up with lower welfare, reversing beyond a certain point?

We next explored how the relative level of minimum wage impacts the tax rate of its host country. The result is not so linear at all – one would expect the higher the average-to-minimum wage ratio the less the welfare burden would be, and therefore the lower the tax wedge should be. However the trend is the reverse – we see below that as the ratio increases from 1.5 towards 3 (ie from Poland towards Japan), the actual tax wedge increased:

Chart 5: Tax wedge against average-to-minimum wage ratio

The rising pattern follows the blue trend lines until we hit a much higher ratio value around 4 (ie Luxembourg levels) when a new trend emerges that starts seeing tax wedge dropping again (purple trend lines) – does this mean that if the jurisdiction is rich enough and sticks to a low minimum wage relative, it can avoid needing to raise more taxes to finance this welfare? Or are Russia, HK, Singapore unique exceptions to the rule in the high ratio zone just as Taiwan, Indonesia are in the low ratio zone?

Visible hand always causes unintended distortions

Despite having over a decade of experience with minimum wage administration, the disadvantages of putting such an important economic lever in the hands of bureaucrats is obvious:

1)     Political pressure rises during volatile asset upcycles – when home prices rise in a bubble (blue line in Chart 6, between 2012 and 2020) however fast minimum wages (red line) are adjusted up by the govt, there will be cries of stinginess, as pay simply cannot catch up with the exponential rise in home prices (thus the wage increases will still be woefully home buying needs);

2)     Private market cries foul in downcycles – although the minimum wage never catches up with private sector pays in the upcycle, note how rapidly private sector pay adjusts to economic downturns (green line in 2019-21, and no doubt 2024+) whilst the govt mandated minimum wage has only gone in one direction: forever rises, causing societal divide and cries of unfairness especially during times of economic hardship. The current proposal of not allowing the minimum wage to fall is not only redundant given past practice, but is also idiotic as it belies basic economic theories!

3)     The govt’s new proposal to benchmark minimum wage to overall GDP growth obviously incorrectly imposes the city-wide total output over what should be a per capita measure in the minimum wage situation. What this means is, if HK’s population grows fast, but overall wage rates stay stagnant, minimum wage will still be lifted irrespective of overall wage levels;

4)     Minimum wage never underperformed CPI (purple line) except briefly in 2014 – this may be why the govt has to ditch CPI as a measure, even though the disinflationary cycle is over thanks to geopolitics and deglobalization, meaning in future stagflation will result in inflation going above wage increases. How behind the curve the people residing in ivory towers could be proven again in the next few years just when the new proposals go into effect?

Chart 6: comparable benchmarks all seem to underperform minimum wages since it’s launch in 2012!

For the sharp eyed reader, the biggest surprise of the chart above is not how minimum wage has been rising too slowly, but how as of now it has risen more than all other alternative benchmarks… does this not actually annul the need for any change to increase minimum wage’s downside protection, but necessitate a more urgent need to ensure it does not detach itself from the wider economy and fairness to tax payers?

We leave you with an illustration of why this form of price control (which minimum wage is a form of) does not work – in a free economy, all types of supply and demand find equilibria wherever the two meet (Chart 7), but in a minimum wage scenario, the willing contributor to supply is banned from making that supply (dark red area in Chart 8), while all legal supply now starts above the threshold (red dotted line), but with less supply in the system, the price response is steeper as a result, with everyone in the system paying more (purple hatched area):

Chart 7: Supply demand without minimum wage	Chart 8: Supply demand under minimum wage

The problems raised by minimum wages are clear to see in recent mandates in the US where thresholds have been raised – in the situations below, either the supply is replaced by automation (the protected worker losing their jobs as a result, Figure 1) or the employer cannot afford extra pay so cutting supply instead (the workers working shorter hours instead, Figure 2):

Figure 1: automation replaces existing supply Source: bizjournals.com

Figure 2: … or supply reduction, resulting in workers increasing input intensity?  Source: Gary Varvel

 

 

 

The author would like to thank Pan Ming Yue from City University of Hong Kong majoring in Finance and Muhammad Mudassar from City University of Hong Kong majoring in Global Business for assisting in data collection, analysis, and drafting this article.

HK traffic management: overtaken by frontier countries?

 

HK govt’s slogans when marketing the city has long been “Asia’s World City”, but this title certainly is not worthy when applied to HK’s ever archaic and user unfriendly traffic management systems. In this and a following article, we highlight some aspects that show up how HK has become a backward city in this most important aspect of citizen’s daily life.

High anxiety at traffic lights

When dealing with situations where patience is needed, and where uncertainty is high such as at red lights where the waiting time could be anything from 30 seconds to well over a minute, do you not feel a calming effect when you can see the red light counting down to zero?

Isn’t it also safer when you drive towards crossings, but are unsure whether the light will turn amber/red at any minute?

These surely are the exact reasons why increasingly cities around the world are moving towards a countdown system, be it from red light to green, or the other way round? What should shock most visiting road users from other jurisdictions to HK should be how lacking is this simplest of form of user-friendly feature at HK’s roadside, when city after city have already adopted it all around us:

 

For example, Singapore has adopted the system since 2003, and even cities in emerging economies like Shenzhen (from 2009), Ho Chi Minh (2010), and Bangkok (2013) have followed suit. As far as we know from searching the internet, the best HK govt has done is a trial programme in 2022, with no follow-on action whatsoever.

The benefits of countdowns at traffic lights are already well documented in various research studies, including:

a)     significantly improved driver response at intersections – drivers make safer decisions in the “dilemma zone,” where they are unsure whether to stop or proceed when the light turns yellow. Drivers stopped 13% more before the lights and reduced deceleration rates prior to stopping (see report);

b)     reduced start-up lost time at the beginning of the green phase by ~22%, which translates to a more efficient flow of traffic and reduced delays (see report).

c)     decreased red-light violations of as high as 50% during the initial phase of the red light, improving safety;

d)     enhanced roadway capacity by reducing headway fluctuations among vehicles, leading to an increase in the overall capacity of the intersection by about 5% to 10%

There are many other benefits cited in the above research, which we will not repeat here. Given how wide ranging the advantages are, and how widespread the adoption of countdown traffic lights, one cannot help but wonder out loud: what is HK Transport Department doing delaying its roll out?

 Diagonal pedestrian crossings – need immediately roll out

Whilst even third-tier cities like Changsha (see Figure 5) have widely adopted diagonal pedestrian crossings, HK has only timidly implemented its first such arrangement.

 

Figure 5: diagonal pedestrian crossing in Changsha, China

Our first diagonal crossing was only put in place at the junction of Sha Kok Street and Yat Tai Street in Sha Tin on 31 Jan 2024, and the second crossing at Carnarvon Road and Granville Road, Tsim Sha Tsui began in August:

 

It is interesting to see how people used common sense to diagonally cross even before the designated routings are painted on the ground. The benefits are obvious – for many pedestrians, their destination is not just one street across, but two (hence the diagonal crossing), and having the new arrangement must save millions of hours of waiting time a year for the pavement users collectively.

Instead of waiting for public pressure to build up before making moves, why has the Transport Department not initiated studies to look into the time savings? In fact multiple research studies have already been done already, for example: the Vaziri study in Beverly Hills (see here) in late 90s showed an average 66% reduction in pedestrian accidents at these intersections.

Where next to implement? Please leave comment below!

We end with the world’s most famous diagonal crossing in the world: Shibuya Station crossing in Tokyo (Figure 8) – it was inaugurated in 1973. Such ‘pedestrian scrambles’ as they are known in Japan is so popular that there are over 300 such intersections all over Japan today (reference here).

 

Figure 8: Shibuya Crossing, Tokoyo

So, HK has a lot of ground to make up, we have a number of potential candidates (eg. Pedder St in Central) that we have identified ourselves, but your contribution can no doubt vastly expand the target list, thus spreading convenience to all pedestrians in HK…

 

Figure 9: possitble addition: Pedder Street - Des Vouex Road junction?

 

The author would like to thank Ng Shiu Long Colin from City University of Hong Kong majoring in Global Business for assisting in data collection, analysis, and drafting this article.