東方日報專訪 Oriental Daily Interview Global Economics + HK Property 20260112

聲明:所有傳媒發布的訪問內容只代表撰文者之理解，可能與本博客作者的分析或結論不同，或存有偏差。  

General Disclaimer – where quoted in media reports, your correspondent does not exercise control on editorial policy and therefore what appears in the publication may not coincide, or even rarely, contradict your correspondent’s views…  

載於2026年01月12日

 

東方日報B1：債市隨時爆　樓價恐尋底 20260112

過去兩年，恒生指數累計上升逾50%，但同期單計二手樓價指數卻微跌0.1%，股市的正面財富效應並未如上世紀90年代、千禧年代一般惠及樓市。本報專訪著名地產分析師──Bricks & Mortar Management主席兼總裁王震宇，探討這背後原因，並表示更大的危機可能在前頭，包括多國的長期國債孳息率已急升，反映市場對主權信用的信心動搖，聯儲局有機會掉頭加息等，都顯示國際金融中心的房地產危機隱現。

市場普遍預期，今年任誰來當聯儲局主席，美國都會在總統特朗普的「長官意志」下繼續減息，全年最少減一厘似乎沒有懸念。然而，王震宇力排眾議，揚言加息的大勢不可逆，連總統也不行。原因之一是全球化在2010年代已開始逆轉，並在近年因為美國貿易戰而急速由全球化變成地區化。這將導致各國輸入成本上升、產品價格上升，從而導致通脹上升。

至於加息重臨的另一主因，是主權債務惡化，就算過往被視為絕對穩陣的美國債券，如今也危如累卵。美國財政部數據顯示，美債最大支持者為日本，惟王震宇再深入地指出，這不是日本政府層面購美債，是日本企業出手買，「日本人買美國國債，係佢唔信自己啲國債……你睇依家日本央行得閒就話加息，係因為通脹太高，咁你啲日債好極有限，所以唔會有人買日債，佢(日本企業)咪買美債囉。」

至於第二大美債持有國的英國，他說：「都唔知英國係咪做咗美國嘅白手套，差唔多係佢(英國)撐住個美債。」全球最穩陣的美國、日本國債都難以倚靠，歐洲的國債更加是從去年9月見到問題浮現。他指，當月無論法國或英國都見新發行的國債滯銷。所謂見微知著，「呢個代表，過去約70年時間政府愈使愈大、甩唔到嘅陋習，開始要埋單」。多國政府經已債台高築，長債崩潰或只是時間問題。

如果單看歐洲，他不諱言，本次的危機較2010年代前後發生的歐債危機更加兇險，原因是「當時德國仲未經濟自殺」。他解釋，作為歐洲最大經濟體的德國，近期將核電廠、煤電廠清拆，改為使用難以預測發電量的風電、太陽能。另外，又因為要制裁俄羅斯，終止了北溪天然氣管道的輸氣。「咁搞到佢無得買便宜的俄羅斯能源，改買好貴嘅美國能源」。能源供應不穩，能源價格上升漸漸在日常中顯現，影響經濟，包括福士汽車(內地稱大眾汽車)在內的多間德國車廠廠房相繼要結業、關門或停運便是一例。

就算是去年美國、日本、南韓、台灣等地股市暴漲，王震宇亦視之為危機出現前的一些表像，因為升市都主要集中在幾隻人工智能(AI)或晶片股所帶動，未惠及普遍產業。要知道全球資產最大的配置就在債市，一旦債市爆煲，國際金融中心資產將會出現大幅降價的問題，香港的房地產亦包括在內。 

【理財新世代】 回顧與前瞻：香港房地產市場 20251227

2025年12月27日

背景：

2025年香港房地產市場終於企穩，2026能否重拾昔日升勢？還是仍然有待觀察？

樓市以外，香港房地產市場另外兩大板塊：商廈市場及酒店前景又是如何？

1. 反映二手樓價的中原城市指數顯示樓價從2021年高位回落近30%後，到了2025年跌幅明顯放緩，3月份跌至低位大概135的水平後，開始有平穩跡象，至今CCL大約是143的水平，先總結一下今年樓價終於止跌回穩，主要原因為何？預計全年總成交量及金額為多少？和昔日高峰相比為何？

2. 今年一手新盤的定價仍然比較進取，有否數據反映2025年一手總銷售額及銷售量為何？比較之前兩年，是否也見好轉？預計來年發展商定價，是否仍然進取？

3. 香港樓市是否已經過了最差時期？還是言之尚早？原因為何？

4. 以前大部份香港人認為買樓是必贏的投資工具，但呢幾年大家見到原來買樓係會輸的，包括中央政府仍然表明住房不炒的政策方針，這方向是否已為香港長遠樓市帶來指引？

5. 另外一個結構性改變是隨著大灣區一小時生活圈的交通配套，逐漸形成，往返兩地十分頻繁，但深圳樓的性價比較香港吸引，目前香港和深圳樓價差幅有多大？香港樓價是否仍然具備溢價的競爭優勢？從現在每日深港兩地即日往返人數來看，能否看見一些趨勢？ 

6. 美國剛剛又減息，明年息口走勢是如何？香港會否完全跟隨？對樓市影響？

7. 分析了很多住宅市場的表現，但另外兩個板塊：零售租務及甲級商廈，今年似乎仍未見完全復甦，今年的表現又是如何？明年能否好轉？原因？

8. 展望2026年，今年利好香港房地產的因素在2026年能否得以持續，繼續支持樓價企穩，甚至向好？對2026年香港房地產預測為何？包括：中小型住宅、豪宅、商廈租金、甲級寫字樓及零售市場的價格升/跌幅預測為何？

9. 最後，投資策略應如何分配？投資者最需要留意的風險因素又是什麼？

報導來源：香港電台【理財新世代】

https://www.rthk.hk/tv/dtt31/programme/investmentera_tv/episode/998869

特此鳴謝

監製：李以莊

主持：黃瑋傑、彭藹嬈

攝影及剪接: 香港電台公共事務組

對手挑戰勢洶湧，香港交易須加時？ 20251126

 對港人而言，投資美股幾乎是證券投資的基本動作。每當有人提到昨夜又開通宵，常聞問曰：「又炒美股呀？」可見美股在港人證券投資的比重何其之高。美國交易所似乎亦欲在亞洲時段吸納亞洲投資者日漸龐大的財富，因而有報謂紐約證券交易所（下稱【紐交所】）正研究延長交易時間（見此），將休市時段縮至僅兩小時（見【圖一】底棒所示）：

圖一：紐交所和倫敦交易所俱有延長交易時間的計劃 

 

與此同時，對岸的倫敦交易所（下稱【倫交所】）據報（見此）亦積極研究如何增加交易時數，至更為進取的「全天候」服務（見上圖第二條棒）！

證券市場環球化　交易時段無休止？
隨著資訊流通越趨發達，兼網上交易普及，跨境投資與「隨時入市」的需求必會穩步上升。以下為環球主要交易所在一日24小時內的交易時間分布：

圖二：全球主要股票交易所交易時間的分佈

 

亞洲交易所：本地為尊
上表【紅色】區域顯示，亞洲大多數交易所仍以服務本地投資者爲主：早上九時後開盤、下午五時前已鳴金收兵，更有個別地域保留長達兩小時的午休時段（黃色區域）。值得留意的是，除澳洲證券交易所與日本交易所較早開市外，大部分亞洲與歐洲主要市場仍具一定重疊時段，有利跨區交易。

歐洲時區：左右逢源，得天獨厚！
上表【綠色】區域所代表的歐洲、中東及非洲時區具有一個天然的優勢：既承接亞洲交易，亦接軌美洲時段！不出所料，德國人的勤奮在法蘭克福交易所交易時段全面反映：彼開市與杜拜同步之餘，更在收市上比倫敦更遲；甚至比美加股市晚兩小時打烊！

第二進取的非杜拜交易所莫屬：雖比倫敦時區早四小時，卻刻意早其一小時開市、兼在倫交所收市一小時後方歇業，積極搶佔時段優勢。歐洲的地理位置令該區交易所能在亞洲市場收盤前承接市勢，並無縫交棒予美國，發揮連貫市場流動的重要橋樑作用。理解此結構後，不難明白倫敦交易所倡議延長交易時段【淺綠區域】的原因——盡覽全日所有時區的交易量。

美國市場：最須延長交易時段
美國股市獨霸全球，其兩大交易所包攬達49萬億美元市值的股票，超越全球其他主要交易所的總和（約45萬億美元）；總成交額方面更達50萬億美元，較其他市場的合計值高出一截（以上皆為2023年數據）。在這樣的基礎上，美國若延長交易時間，帶來的實際效益可能比對手所能達到的更為可觀。

延長交易時數是否確實有用？
為解答以上疑問，筆者將成交量對市值比例與交易時間長短作對比，結果如下：

圖三：成交量／市值比對交易時數

 

乍看下，似乎兩者間毫無關連：
一）美國兩大交易所（紐交所與納斯達克，上圖被【藍線】貫穿）雖交易時段偏短，但成交量與市值比卻居全球開放市場之首；
二）反觀中國的上交所與深交所，雖屬全球交易日最短市場之一，成交頻率卻異常高。

除了資本管制鎖住流動性外，筆者相信中國市場的極高交易頻率可能歸根於國內有限的投資選擇／渠道，及甚高的散戶參與比例，如下圖所示：

圖四：成交量／市值比與散戶參與程度似有關連

 

顯而易見，散戶持股佔約八成的內地交易所，似乎符合「高散戶比例＝快成交週轉」此一假設。若剔除內地交易所，其他市場的成交流轉率似乎與每日交易時數關連不大──雖然多數交易所都在5－7小時區間內，但流轉率卻分散甚廣，由十多至百多個百分點都有：

圖五：成交量／市值比對交易時數（摒除上交所+深交所）

 

值得留意的是倫敦證交所：儘管交易時段頗長，卻在效率表現上大大落後，顯示或有其他結構上因素，如估值偏低、監管繁重、令其市場吸引力不足？可見，延長交易時段只是資本市場環球競爭下其中一項策略，而非萬應靈丹。

香港：須鬆綁升級延時
整體而言，本港應何去何從？筆者認為，港交所可考慮三大方向增加吸引力：
一）放鬆管制，及減輕證監會日趨嚴苛的干預應可吸引更多企業上市，並提高市場活躍度；
二）內地政策支援，如在地緣政治風險升溫下協助中資企業回流香港上市，此趨勢料可延續多年；
三）檢視並延長交易時段，甚至包括取消午餐休息；在各大競爭對手紛紛伸延交易時間的今天，此一改變似乎難以避免。

這些改革應可提升港交所競爭力（如：未來ADR的成交量亦回歸本土）；當有一天本港股市終於追上美國兩強時，環球投資者必會稱許可隨時隨地交易港股的方便，從此無須半夜爬起床買港股。


筆者特別鳴謝香港中文大學計量金融學系王俊淇同學及香港中文大學系統工程與工程管理學系鄧鈞寳同學協助收集及整理本文相關數據及圖表。

Cambodia - a relative winner amidst Thai clashes & US tariffs

Below we reproduce the third of our write ups from recent due diligence trip to Phnom Penh (PP). This issue concerns the politics facing the country, including Cambodia's border conflict with Thailand, as well as the threat of US tariffs at large.

We spent some good time researching these aspects and are happy to report that the bill of health is significantly better than we had feared, and what you may have expected, as well...

Border clash and trade - Cambodia on the upper hand

Whilst a lot of ink has been spilt on the negative impact of the border clashes, such as:

Article 2: ...conflict is projected to significantly impact Cambodia’s GDP and Thailand’s economy in the short term

Article 3: trade dropped sharply in August 2025, with imports down 29.1% ...and exports down 36.2% ...though Cambodia’s overall trade grew 15.5% to $42.15 billion, driven by markets like the US and Vietnam

In fact, the conclusion is already given in the headline of article 3 above - the important marginal development is Cambodia's enlarging pie with the rest of the world, rather than how it is shrinking with an ageing neighbour...

Cambodia net trade as % of GDP

What is more, Thailand has a massive trade surplus with Cambodia, worth 6% of Cambodia's GDP (red line above), meaning the need to reconcile is much stronger for Thailand than for Cambodia; however, a meaningful amount of this trade may be input components for Cambodia's further export processing.

Growth elsewhere may offset much of the loss?

In fact, looking at some sectors of the economy, you can detect significant increase in activities with other partners (article 4) , and especially so with China (article 5):

Article 4: The Royal Group Phnom Penh Special Economic Zone (PPSEZ) ...attracting new investments from China and Japan and employing over 55,000 workers.

Article 5: ...China bilateral trade reached a record $14.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 27% from the previous year

The China element highlights the geopolitical trend we have been citing as a strong tailwind for Cambodia's industrialisation - the re-shoring of PRC manufacturing capacity to SEA!

As more migrant labourers return home, the momentum for capacity growth domestically also receive a major boost, where new factories will no longer have to compete with other nations for home grown workers working abroad:

Article 1: Border clashes forced 910,000 Cambodian migrant workers to return from Thailand

The flipside of this development is a loss of foreign remittances back home, which hopefully will be short term, and as these migrant workers are absorbed into new industrial zones, a lot of the lost wealth pre-remittance will now be kept in the borders of Cambodia:

Inflow remittances (%GDP)

Tariff - best of the lot!

The super proactivity in trade negotiations, even to the point of nominating President Trump for the Nobel Peace prize, suggests how hands-on the Cambodia administration is, compared to sleepier neighbours, amply illustrated by its lowest new US tariffs compared to other Asian competitors:

As a result, the latest forecast upgraded post-border clashes still sees Cambodia GPD to grow 5% before bouncing back to the 6% handle:

latest GDP forecast (Aug 2025, see here)

Senior ministers: young and highly educated

Most people may associate Cambodia with patriarchal sedantry, but a look beneath the hood reveals that the country is ruled by highly educated, young technocrats - below is the full list of cabinet ministers with their age and education:

Noteworthy is how the average age being only 55 years old, with 60% of the ministers younger than 60. Meanwhile 57% of the ministers have university degrees, from Harvard to NUS, from MIT to Wharton! The PM, Hun Manet, is even a West Point graduate...

Shouldn't these credentials give investors far more confidence investing in Cambodia than Thailand or Vietnam or Malaysia - the current top go-to destinations of investor property buying money?

======================Article 1===================

Thailand Turns to Sri Lanka to Plug Labour Gap After Cambodian Exodus

Yatt Malai                                    Published on: Thu, 21 Aug 2025

The recent border clash forced about 910,000 Cambodian migrant workers to return home, leaving Thailand facing a labour shortage that it is filling by hiring from countries including Sri Lanka, while Cambodia pledges to reintegrate returnees into its own economy despite concerns about limited job opportunities

[...]

https://kiripost.com/stories/thailand-turns-to-sri-lanka-to-plug-labour-gap-after-cambodian-exodus

======================Article 2===================

Mekong Strategic Capital Warns Thai Border Conflict Risks Significant Short-Term Impact to Cambodia’s GDP, but Long-Term Outlook Strong

Aug 14

Cambodia’s Growth Outlook Adjusted Downward Amid Border Conflict

Mekong Strategic Capital’s latest forecast anticipates Cambodia’s GDP growth slowing to around 3% in 2025, down from an earlier expectation of around 5%. This revision reflects the multifaceted economic fallout from the conflict, which escalated rapidly to become the region’s most significant economic risk.

[...]

https://cambodiainvestmentreview.com/2025/08/14/mekong-strategic-capital-warns-thai-border-conflict-risks-significant-short-term-impact-to-cambodias-gdp-but-long-term-outlook-strong/

======================Article 3===================

Cambodia–Thailand Trade Weakens Sharply Amid Border Tensions

Gerik                                                                                       Sep 14

Decline In Cambodia’s Imports From Thailand Signals Strained Trade Ties

According to the General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE) of Cambodia, the total value of Cambodian imports from Thailand in August 2025 fell sharply to approximately $213 million, representing a year-on-year contraction of 29.1% from the $301 million recorded in August 2024. Cambodian exports to Thailand also dropped significantly by 36.2% to only $46 million in the same month, underscoring the mutual impact of deteriorating trade conditions between the two neighboring countries.

[...]

https://www.fastbull.com/news-detail/cambodiathailand-trade-weakens-sharply-amid-border-tensions-4343675_0

======================Article 4===================

Exports to Exceed $2B in 2025, No Significant Impact from US, Thailand, Says Royal Group SEZ

Oct 13                                                      Sangeetha Amarthalingam

By the end of 2025, the export value of goods from companies operating within the public-listed Royal Group Phnom Penh Special Economic Zone (PPSEZ) is likely to be over $2 billion, with no significant drop registered so far despite trade issues with the US and Thailand.

[...]

https://kiripost.com/stories/exports-exceed-2b-2025-no-significant-impact-from-us-thailand​

​======================Article 5===================

Cambodia-China trade hits record $14 billion, up 27%

Oct 14 Sum Manet / Khmer Times

Bilateral trade between Cambodia and China exceeded $14.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025, marking a robust 27% increase compared to the same period last year, according to the latest figures from the General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE).

[...]

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501772308/cambodia-china-trade-hits-record-14-billion-up-27/

Should HKEX extend trading hours to stay competitive?

Trading US stocks have long been a popular investment avenue for Hong Kong individual punters, and when one says “I’m staying up late tonight” one is often greeted by “To trade the market?”, Obviously the exchange operators in the US are eyeing the potential of tapping the increasingly affluent Asian investors in their own time zones, with the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) reported to be looking into extending its trading hours (see here), with only 2 hours of rest between sessions (bottom bar below):

Figure 1: NYSE and LSE proposals to extend their trading hours

Not to be outdone by their peers across the pond, the London Stock Exchange (LSE) is now also reported (see here) to be studying how they could extend their offering – to an even more ambitious round-the-clock service (second bar above)!

Global markets call for 24-hour availability?

With stock investing going global in the age of easy data feeds and online trading platforms, the need to be able to access your target markets can only rise. Let us look at the current set up across major exchanges in each time zone:

Figure 2: trading hour distribution of major stock exchanges around the globe

Asians – mostly localised services

Represented by the red areas above, it is clear that most Asian stock markets cater only to their local investors, with all of opening after 9am and closing by 5pm local time. What is more, they are the only markets with long lunch breaks (up to 2 hours, yellow area above).

There is also a convenient trading overlap with major European exchanges except Australia Stock Exchange (ASX) and Tokyo Stock Exchange (JPX) which start earlier than the rest of the pack.

Europeans – geographically lucky to straddle

In the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) time zone (represented by green areas) the most diligent are the Germans, with Frankfurt Stock Exchange (FRA) boasting the longest trading hours and basically out-trades every competitor in its region; what is more, its trading hours also completely envelope the US major bourses too! This is followed by Dubai Exchange (DFM), which despite being 4 hours ahead of London, tries to grab business by starting an hour ahead of the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and closes one hour afterwards.

The favourable location of Europe allows these exchanges to overlap with Asian exchange at the start of the day and then again segue into the American exchanges before they shut up shop, thus serving a crucial bridging function in providing market continuity over the day.

Now that we have a basic understanding of the trading hour distributions, it is not hard to see why LSE is proposing – to extend its own time advantage to cover the entire world (light green area)!

Americans – biggest need to extend trading hours

Given how overwhelmingly dominant the US stock markets are – the two US exchanges are home to $49trn worth of market capitalisation, more than all the other above exchanges combined at only $45trn, and value traded totalling $50trn compared to $48trn for the rest (above all 2023 figures) – there is probably far greater practical benefit to extending the US trading hours.

What do the numbers say about lengthening trading hours?

In theory, the longer the trading session, the higher should an exchange’s volume-to-market-cap ratio be. Below is a plot of all exchanges in our study:

Chart 1: Vol / Mkt Cap vs Hours Traded

There does not seem to be any correlation at all it seems:

a)     the two biggies (NYSE + NASDAQ, marked by a horizontal blue line) top the volume/market cap metric amongst all open capital account markets, despite their shorter trading hours;

b)     the two Chinese exchanges Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) and Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) have disproportionately high volume relative to their listed market caps, all while having the shortest trading hours!

Besides capital controls (which trap liquidity), we also suspect that lack of investment alternatives and high retail participation are the drivers of such high trading velocity for the Chinese exchanges:

 

Chart 2: Vol / Mkt Cap vs Retail Participation

The chart above seems to prove our suspicion – with significantly higher retail stock investing (in the 80%s), the PRC exchanges corroborate the trend line of higher retail = higher volume/market cap.

If we take out the PRC exchanges, then we get a tighter new pattern (Chart 3), where 5 to 7 hours seem to be the norm for most jurisdictions, with a large volume/market cap spread between the high teens through to over 100%:

Chart 3: Vol / Mkt Cap vs Hours Traded (Excluding SSE & SZSE)

One big disappointment is that of LSE, which despite having longer trading hours, features badly in its trading efficiency. This suggests that there are other structural issues at play – could it be low valuations which put off potential listing candidates, or is it over-enthusiastic regulation making life difficult for existing candidates? After all, what this also points to is the fact that stock exchanges are in a global competitive race for members, and extending trading hours is but one of many factors that will make or break an exchange’s future prospects.

 

Hong Kong – extend and upgrade

What does all of these leave HK? We can discern a number of actions that will help the city:

a)     as always deregulation and limiting the over-protective interference of the SFC will definitely attract more listings and trading volume;

b)    policy help from mainland China certainly helps – including all the redomiciling of PRC listcos to HK given heightened geopolitical risks, a trend we see continuing for a number of years ahead;

c)     and of course, longer trading hours, including even scrapping the lunch break - this is now almost unavoidable given the biggest to competitors are both studying similar strategies, HK should not be left behind.

 

All of these measures will help prepare for the day when HKEX’s stature approaches that of the American exchanges, when overseas traders would appreciate the convenience of trading HK stocks any time they want, and not having to get out of bed in the middle of the night to do.

 

The author would like to thank Tang Kwan Po Aaron from The Chinese University of Hong Kong majoring in System Engineering and Engineering Management for assisting in data collection and analysis of this article.