Below we reproduce the third of our write ups from recent due diligence trip to Phnom Penh (PP). This issue concerns the politics facing the country, including Cambodia's border conflict with Thailand, as well as the threat of US tariffs at large.
We spent some good time researching these aspects and are happy to report that the bill of health is significantly better than we had feared, and what you may have expected, as well...
Border clash and trade - Cambodia on the upper hand
Whilst a lot of ink has been spilt on the negative impact of the border clashes, such as:
Article 2: ...conflict is projected to significantly impact Cambodia’s GDP and Thailand’s economy in the short term
Article 3: trade dropped sharply in August 2025, with imports down 29.1% ...and exports down 36.2% ...though Cambodia’s overall trade grew 15.5% to $42.15 billion, driven by markets like the US and Vietnam
In fact, the conclusion is already given in the headline of article 3 above - the important marginal development is Cambodia's enlarging pie with the rest of the world, rather than how it is shrinking with an ageing neighbour...
Cambodia net trade as % of GDP
What is more, Thailand has a massive trade surplus with Cambodia, worth 6% of Cambodia's GDP (red line above), meaning the need to reconcile is much stronger for Thailand than for Cambodia; however, a meaningful amount of this trade may be input components for Cambodia's further export processing.
Growth elsewhere may offset much of the loss?
In fact, looking at some sectors of the economy, you can detect significant increase in activities with other partners (article 4) , and especially so with China (article 5):
Article 4: The Royal Group Phnom Penh Special Economic Zone (PPSEZ) ...attracting new investments from China and Japan and employing over 55,000 workers.
Article 5: ...China bilateral trade reached a record $14.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025, up 27% from the previous year
The China element highlights the geopolitical trend we have been citing as a strong tailwind for Cambodia's industrialisation - the re-shoring of PRC manufacturing capacity to SEA!
As more migrant labourers return home, the momentum for capacity growth domestically also receive a major boost, where new factories will no longer have to compete with other nations for home grown workers working abroad:
Article 1: Border clashes forced 910,000 Cambodian migrant workers to return from Thailand
The flipside of this development is a loss of foreign remittances back home, which hopefully will be short term, and as these migrant workers are absorbed into new industrial zones, a lot of the lost wealth pre-remittance will now be kept in the borders of Cambodia:
Inflow remittances (%GDP)
Tariff - best of the lot!
The super proactivity in trade negotiations, even to the point of nominating President Trump for the Nobel Peace prize, suggests how hands-on the Cambodia administration is, compared to sleepier neighbours, amply illustrated by its lowest new US tariffs compared to other Asian competitors:
As a result, the latest forecast upgraded post-border clashes still sees Cambodia GPD to grow 5% before bouncing back to the 6% handle:
Senior ministers: young and highly educated
Most people may associate Cambodia with patriarchal sedantry, but a look beneath the hood reveals that the country is ruled by highly educated, young technocrats - below is the full list of cabinet ministers with their age and education:
Noteworthy is how the average age being only 55 years old, with 60% of the ministers younger than 60. Meanwhile 57% of the ministers have university degrees, from Harvard to NUS, from MIT to Wharton! The PM, Hun Manet, is even a West Point graduate...
Shouldn't these credentials give investors far more confidence investing in Cambodia than Thailand or Vietnam or Malaysia - the current top go-to destinations of investor property buying money?
======================Article 1===================
Thailand Turns to Sri Lanka to Plug Labour Gap After Cambodian Exodus
Yatt Malai Published on: Thu, 21 Aug 2025
The recent border clash forced about 910,000 Cambodian migrant workers to return home, leaving Thailand facing a labour shortage that it is filling by hiring from countries including Sri Lanka, while Cambodia pledges to reintegrate returnees into its own economy despite concerns about limited job opportunities
[...]
https://kiripost.com/stories/thailand-turns-to-sri-lanka-to-plug-labour-gap-after-cambodian-exodus
======================Article 2===================
Mekong Strategic Capital Warns Thai Border Conflict Risks Significant Short-Term Impact to Cambodia’s GDP, but Long-Term Outlook Strong
Cambodia’s Growth Outlook Adjusted Downward Amid Border Conflict
Mekong Strategic Capital’s latest forecast anticipates Cambodia’s GDP growth slowing to around 3% in 2025, down from an earlier expectation of around 5%. This revision reflects the multifaceted economic fallout from the conflict, which escalated rapidly to become the region’s most significant economic risk.
[...]
======================Article 3===================
Cambodia–Thailand Trade Weakens Sharply Amid Border Tensions
Decline In Cambodia’s Imports From Thailand Signals Strained Trade Ties
According to the General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE) of Cambodia, the total value of Cambodian imports from Thailand in August 2025 fell sharply to approximately $213 million, representing a year-on-year contraction of 29.1% from the $301 million recorded in August 2024. Cambodian exports to Thailand also dropped significantly by 36.2% to only $46 million in the same month, underscoring the mutual impact of deteriorating trade conditions between the two neighboring countries.
[...]
======================Article 4===================
Exports to Exceed $2B in 2025, No Significant Impact from US, Thailand, Says Royal Group SEZ
Oct 13 Sangeetha Amarthalingam
By the end of 2025, the export value of goods from companies operating within the public-listed Royal Group Phnom Penh Special Economic Zone (PPSEZ) is likely to be over $2 billion, with no significant drop registered so far despite trade issues with the US and Thailand.
[...]
https://kiripost.com/stories/exports-exceed-2b-2025-no-significant-impact-from-us-thailand
======================Article 5===================
Cambodia-China trade hits record $14 billion, up 27%
Oct 14 Sum Manet / Khmer Times
Bilateral trade between Cambodia and China exceeded $14.2 billion in the first nine months of 2025, marking a robust 27% increase compared to the same period last year, according to the latest figures from the General Department of Customs and Excise (GDCE).
[...]
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/501772308/cambodia-china-trade-hits-record-14-billion-up-27/
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