筆者出席新城電台財《香樹輝King King 傾》節目，與香樹輝先生探討樓市展望。節目完整錄音如下:
2020年5月28日星期四
Discussing post-flu property market and Sino-US cold war impact on HK property market in:《香樹輝King King 傾》20200527
全國人大會議審議香港國安法，多名移民顧問表示移民查詢急升。房地產投資公司Bricks & Mortar Management創辦人兼總裁王震宇表示，移民潮對中長期樓市而言，將會是非常大的負面因素，但認為需要待移民獲批後才能出售單位，預計短期內不會出現拋售潮。
2020年4月27日星期一
Doctors recommend lifting lockdown (and other perspectives on the flu) 20200427
Academics like lockdowns because they are finally the centre of attention, and get more funding if things appear more serious than otherwise...
Politicians like lockdowns because they can grab power and control you...
Media like lockdowns because they can scare you into peeling yourself to the screen all day long and they can sell more ads...
or so the cynic would say, but if one follows the money, one could certainly see traces of such causal relationship.
As a result of the panic lockdowns, even doctors are losing their jobs, all while patients are denied "non-covid" operations/procedures and dying of ailments that would otherwise be treated.
Here are some interviews with professionals holding different views from the mainstream narrative... see if you agree with any of their reasoning?
COVID-19 Briefing: Current Quarantine Approach Wrong Based on Science | Dr Erickson & Dr Massihi Pt1
Politicians ‘freaked’ about ‘plainly wrong’ coronavirus predictions:
Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski | Episode 2
2020年4月21日星期二
20200421 經濟日報地產站專訪：全球債市將爆煲 利息不跌反升成樓價下跌推手
載於2020年4月21日經濟日報
為應付新冠肺炎的疫情，各國央行救市減至「零息」，甚至大印銀紙，正當市場憧憬低息可以支持樓價再升的時候，有星級分析師之稱的瑞銀房地產前分析員王震宇卻擔心，息口上升才是樓市下跌的最大推手。
創立Bricks & Mortar Management並擔任主席的王震宇，去年底亦以2,280萬元沽出九龍站擎天半島的物業，大賺2倍，即使各國政府、央行以前所未見的規模救市，但他在訪問期間透露對環球經濟及樓市前景擔憂。
「問題是本身息口已經低到無得再低，未來的風險是利息上的風險。」王震宇認為,當越來越多發展中國家、新興市場、各個經濟板塊，因為美元上升、經濟下調，導致其會違約、「賴債」，風險溢價大幅抽升，就算美國聯儲局大幅減息，但香港的拆息仍然相當之高，港美息差出現1厘以上溢價。
政府債勢爆煲 2至3年內拆息或抽升
「各國類似政府機構，為了應付疫情大量印銀紙，但債務無法償還埋單，最後就是政府債的大爆發，在2至3年內導致拆息、所有息口抽升，就算央行亦無法支持。」王震宇形容，屆時危機會變得比起2008年金融海嘯更加嚴重，甚至連中央銀行亦無辦法救市。
金融海嘯在2008年因美國次按危機爆發，除了引爆環球災股外，本港樓價亦在半年內大跌2成，直到之後因各國央行減息，及推出量化寬鬆政策，刺激樓價出現「V型」反彈，甚至一直延續多年。
息口掉頭回升 地產投資所需回報率抽高
王震宇指，當所有息口大幅抽升，導致所有地產投資所需要的回報率抽高，成為樓價下跌的最大推手，之前(回報率)兩厘都頂得住，因為借按揭利息只有1厘多，但之後無可能見到1厘多利率的時候,保住資產回報就要升到3厘、4厘。」
「樓價已經正在下跌，但好多成交未反映在樓價指數上，政府去年10月的放寬按揭，正正是覺得個市開始轉向，可以開始不用那麼大力度的介入。」
放寬按揭因察覺樓市轉向 縱使減辣亦非入市時機
至於是否政府減辣便是入市時機，王震宇並不這樣認為，即使減少印花稅暫時對任何人都不是一個好的刺激入市原因，因為樓價的預期向下的話，交多或交少(印花稅)都會蝕本的話，都不會因此值得入市。
跌市應該怎「撈底」、應該怎樣「揀貨」？王震宇指出，雖然現現時樓市高位不勝寒，當回報率壓到如此底，的確較難抵擋外來衝擊，但非所有板塊都是如此。
「零售物業的樓價回到10年、甚至更早之前，導致這個板塊的抵禦能力強過住宅未見太大跌幅，板塊之間物色具抵抗能力的投資是有得做。」王震宇這樣認為。
【買股定買樓】地產股增長能力勝蝸居：為何要孤注一擲？
近期股市大跌，買樓還是買股好再次成為市場談論的話題。王震宇指，其他板塊不評論，因並非專家，但房地產板塊一定買股好過買樓。
「現時買樓一般住宅租金回報率大約2厘多，即使有機會執平貨亦只是3厘幾，但好多地產股的股息率已經去到5、6厘，部份更是藍籌股。」王震宇認為，購入這些地產股的抵抗能力、借貸能力及未來增長能力，「一定好過買一間斗室」，反問在這個情況下是否應該將風險調整，不要孤注一擲放在樓市上。
疫情對地產股盈利能力影響料屬短暫
疫情影響之下，不少發展商旗下商場都要推出減租、免租，而推盤部署亦受延遲，令到賣樓收入同受影響。不過，王震宇認為，疫情對地產股盈利能力的影響只是短暫，有可能現時股價的調整已經反映。
至於要真正在樓市立於不敗之地，要訣在於專注在某個範疇深入研究。王震宇認為，不同板塊有不同指標要分析，但整體來說並不容易。不是每個人都有如此能力或者時間去分析，唯一方法是減低自己風險，找一個自己熟悉的板塊去做專家，「就算大市睇唔準，起碼自己熟悉的「細市」立於不敵之地」，在跌市之中只要勤力去做功夫，「去到邊都搵到平貨」。
2020年3月31日星期二
10 MORE Experts Criticising the Coronavirus Panic
“Although some experts have shed doubt on the strength and length of the human immune response to the virus, the emerging evidence made her confident that humanity would build up herd immunity against Covid19.”
Dr. Sunetra Gupta et al. (a Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford, the Scientific Medal by the Zoological Society of London and the Royal Society Rosalind Franklin Award)
“The disease per se is like the flu in a normal winter.”
Dr Karin Mölling (a full professor and director of the Institute of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich from 1993 until her retirement in 2008 and received multiple honours and awards for her work)
“All measures that we take must be feasible over a longer period of time.” Otherwise, the population will lose acceptance of the entire corona strategy.”
Dr Anders Tegnell (a physician and civil servant who has been State Epidemiologist of the Public Health Agency of Sweden since 2013)
“There is no evidence to show that the 2019 coronavirus is more lethal than respiratory adenoviruses, influenza viruses, coronaviruses from previous years, or rhinoviruses responsible for the common cold.”
Dr Pablo Goldschmidt (an Argentine-French virologist specializing in tropical diseases)
“Projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.”
Dr Eran Bendavid and Dr Jay Bhattacharya (professors of medicine and public health at Stanford University)
“I cannot answer my nagging doubts, there does not seem to be anything special about this particular epidemic of influenza-like illness.”
Dr Tom Jefferson (an advisor to the Italian National Agency for Regional Health Services)
“To put things in proportion, the number of deaths of coronavirus in Italy is 10% of the number of deaths of influenza in the country between 2016-2017.”
Dr Michael Levitt (a Professor of biochemistry at Stanford University and received the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.)
“An overestimation of the CFR also occurs when a deceased person is found to have been infected with SARS-CoV-2, but this was not the cause of death.”
German Network for Evidence-Based Medicine (an association of German scientists, researchers and medical professionals)
“Likewise, the actual rate of new cases is probably at least 10,000 a day. If these numbers sound large, though, remember that the world is a very big place. From a global perspective, these numbers are very small.”
Dr Richard Schabas (the former Chief Medical Officer of Ontario, Medical Officer of Hastings and Prince Edward Public Health and Chief of Staff at York Central Hospital)
Another article on reality check - curve-flattening vs economic armaggedon, a great article for you to digest:
2020年3月30日星期一
12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic
“The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences on medical care are profound.”
Dr Sucharit Bhakdi (A specialist in microbiology; one of the most cited research scientists in German history)
“We should be asking questions like “How did you find out this virus was dangerous?”, “How was it before?”, “Didn’t we have the same thing last year?”, “Is it even something new?”
Dr Wolfgang Wodarg (A former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe)
“In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.”
Dr Joel Kettner (A former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases)
“If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to “influenza-like illness” would not seem unusual this year.”
Dr John Ioannidis (A director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS))
“There is a very good example that we all forget: the swine flu in 2009. That was a virus that reached the world from Mexico and until today there is no vaccination against it. But what? At that time there was no Facebook or there maybe was but it was still in its infancy. The coronavirus, in contrast, is a virus with public relations.”
Dr Yoram Lass (An Israeli former Director General of the Health Ministry)
“We should better integrate the scientific facts into the political decisions.”
Dr Pietro Vernazza (A Swiss physician specialising Infectious Diseases at the Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen)
“Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.”
Frank Ulrich Montgomery (Former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association)
“The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1.”
Prof. Hendrik Streeck (A director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research, at Bonn University)
“The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.”
Dr Yanis Roussel et. al. (A researcher from the Institut Hospitalo-universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille)
“I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of normal life will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself.”
Dr David Katz (A founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center)
“The best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible.”
Michael T. Osterholm (Regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota)
“Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.”
Dr Peter Goetzsche (A professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen)
12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic
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