Whether optimism or exaggeration, govt forecasts proven wrong again

Back in 2017, we highlighted in “Blind Optimism or Deliberate Exaggeration? A look at govt forecasts” that the government shaved projected HZMB usage forecast by one third in merely 10 years. The latest evidence of the already wrong forecast just came in on an HKEJ story entitled “HZMB usage forecast is revised lower” on June 19 2018. Not surprisingly, a new 2016 consultant’s report lowered the projected automotive and foot traffic by a further 12% and 26% respectively! Below is an updated chart to illustrate the ever falling economic benefit of this grand civil engineering project… the red area represents the difference between the 2008 and 2016 forecasts.

樂觀定誇大，政府要負責

筆者在2017年拙文《政府預測：盲目樂觀抑或是故意誇大？》中已指出政府在短短十年內下調港珠澳大橋車流量的估算達三分之一。最新的證據於6月19日見於信報《港珠澳大橋估算用量下跌》一文，其內提及到新顧問報告顯示2016年已調整預測之2030年車流量及人流量再被調低12%及26%。下圖乃筆者將新舊預測伸延對比，紅色區為下調區間：