旅館條例無新意 規管民宿紓或堵？

《2018旅館業（修訂）條例草案》上週提交立法會首讀，但Airbnb委託獨立機構的調查顯示，77%受訪者支持否決旅館條例修正案。

民政事務局發言人說：「《條例草案》的目的，是改善現行發牌制度、利便執法行動及加強阻嚇力以打擊無牌酒店及賓館。」政府試圖收緊法例，料今後香港民宿業務將受更加嚴厲的限制，然而市場普遍對政府只顧「打擊非法」卻遲遲不立新法的因循態度表示失望。中文大學學者陳志邦認爲政府應考慮修訂法例容納共享經濟，同時將其引入正途，以配合新經濟模式發展。

早在今年2月23日的《港府故步自封 新經濟冇運行》一文中，筆者已經闡述Airbnb在香港與紐倫星等先進城市在待遇上的不同，證明了港官在共享經濟思維已是史前動物，遠遠落後於其它國際城市。香港政府無視法制創新，反助既得利益者打壓新興競爭的做法，不單使香港在新經濟大放異彩的大時代束手待斃，亦令有志于新業態的投資者及經營者心死。

The Hotel and Guesthouse Accommodation (Amendment) Bill 2018 was submitted to the Legislative Council for first reading last week. At the same time, a survey commissioned by Airbnb revealed that 77% of the 800 Hong Kong residents interviewed wanted the Legislative Council to veto the amendments.

A Home Affairs Bureau spokesperson said, "The Bill seeks to improve the existing licensing regime, facilitate enforcement actions and enhance deterrence against unlicensed hotels and guesthouses." As a result, B&Bs in Hong Kong are expected to face stricter regulations in future. However, the market has widely questioned the government’s emphasis on strict compliance with no heed paid to a changed environment due to innovations. A scholar at the CUHK advocated the government to adapt to new economic reality and amend regulations to accommodate the sharing economy, rather than persecute it.

Your author has analyzed the varying fates of Airbnb in New York, London, Singapore and Hong Kong in an earlier article, highlighting how far the governance mindset in Hong Kong has lagged behind other global cities. The government is demonstrating by action that it favours vested interests and protects them from emerging competition. Is it any wonder that more people sense the ever slipping technological advantage that Hong Kong has enjoyed, and that the city is slipping ever further behind in the era of innovation? 

More governments facilitating crypto business or adopting blockchain to ease regulatory burden for businesses

More governments facilitating crypto business or adopting blockchain to ease regulatory burden for businesses… HK again is conspicuous by its inactivity, see below two developments:

1. Switzerland Considers Granting CryptoBusinesses Access to Banking Services

• Swiss regulators and financiers are working to remove the obstacles: Setting up a taskforce and a set of standards for ICO startups in order for Crypto companies to receive banking services in Switzerland

• Switzerland is under pressure as competition from Malta, Gibraltar and Singapore becomes fierce… as they pulled out all stops to attract Crypto companies

• With a vision of becoming a Crypto Nation, both the government and banks recognize the benefits … and wish to promote Switzerland as a financial and technology hub

2. The State of Delaware awarded IBM$738,000 to create a blueprint for their blockchain based corporate filingsystem

• In 2016, the former governor of Delaware had the ambition to embrace blockchain technology by adding the state’s public archives to a blockchain

• legislation was introduced in 2017 to support blockchain which allow companies to keep their corporate records on the blockchain in order to maintain accurate data. IBM will design the blueprints for what could become Delaware's future blockchain-based corporate filing system

近年，外國政府正積極通過放寬法律限制來推動加密貨幣及區域鏈發展，對比之下香港顯得相形見絀，見以下兩則新聞；

1. 瑞士正考慮容許加密貨幣公司使用銀行服務

• 瑞士政府及金融界人士正積極為加密貨幣開路；包括委任專責人士及設立一系列首次代幣發行標準，讓相關公司能夠使用銀行服務。
• 馬爾他、直布羅陀、新加坡等國正不斷為加密貨幣業立法開路，瑞士的領導地位面臨巨大挑戰。
• 瑞士政府及銀行希望透過加密貨幣來鞏固瑞士金融科技中心的地位，把瑞士打造成加密貨幣王國。

2. 特拉華州與IBM達成價值七十多萬美元的區域鏈相關合同，為特拉華州建立企業內容管理系統

• 前州長在兩年前大力推動區域鏈相關發展，為州內公眾文件建立區域鏈。
• 政府在2017年立法容許公司利用區域鏈來保存企業檔案，以增加資料準確性。IBM將為特州建立企業內容管理系統區域鏈。

Metro Radio -香樹輝King King傾 20180706

 上月底，政府推出新房策六招，在社會上引起廣大迴響，各界均議論紛紛，究竟是次房屋政策會對香港長遠的樓市有何影響？筆者今早出席新城電台的香樹輝King King傾，與King Sir論新房策之優劣及未來樓市的走勢。

此外, 筆者亦接受香港電台的訪問, 以下節錄自香港電台的報導:


政府計劃將9幅私樓地改劃為公營房屋，將會減少私樓供應，市場需求較大時反而推高樓價；而發展商更可能因為逃避空置稅，在售完貨尾後，轉為拖慢建屋工程進度及延遲申請滿意紙，甚至將單位出租，影響私樓供應。

王震宇認為，政府應將所有土地供應全數撥入私人市場，確保私樓市場長遠有充足供應，相信有助發展商加快銷售速度，樓價走勢因而向下。

王震宇又指，目前居屋家庭入息上限已涵蓋全港75%市民的入息範圍，甚至高於私樓家庭的入息中位數，會令更多市民抽居屋，增加市場對居屋的需求。他又指，將居屋售價折扣由7折變為52折，最終令居屋未能流轉至二手市場，因政府提供更多折扣令補地價難度更高，減低市民日後換樓的彈性。

他又提到，美國聯儲局加息步伐已快過市場預期，近期市場已調高今年加息次數的預測，加上憂慮歐債危機或於明年再現，而中美貿易摩擦或會令美國入口通脹升溫，聯儲局就有更大誘因加息，這些因素會令未來息口上升幅度出遠出乎市場預期，對本港樓價壓力大。

資料來源: http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1405520-20180706.htm 

美國小州尚且放開懷抱，香港政策卻是捉錯用神

上一系列文章已分析區域鏈及加密貨幣為市場帶來的顛覆性的影響。（原文見：港府打壓頻仍 加密貨幣業出走他方（新經濟系列三））

就連風馬牛不相及的畜牧業亦不例外：美國懷俄明州北部已有農民利用區域鏈科技優化肉牛供應鏈，為高品質牛種之品質／來源地提供鐵證，增加牛隻銷量及單價。今年三月，該地政府正式通過加密貨幣有關法案《111號法案》，豁免加密貨幣於州內的財產稅，並將數字貨幣定義為新的資產類別，簡化加密貨幣在該州的區塊鏈技術使用，方便企業投資相關技術；結果，在近期已有超過200間相關公司在當地成立，勢成為懷俄明州繼能源、旅遊、農業之後的第四大經濟支柱（原文見：金融時報之：《Wyoming’s pioneering crypto cowboys beef up the supply chain》）

反觀香港，政府不但不為開發區域鏈相關行業提供誘因，卻只知向既得利益團體大擲公帑，助之更能排擠新興現象，如：落馬洲河套區科技園、創科創投基金、粵港澳大灣區等等。區域鏈的商業應用已日趨廣泛，若香港不能拆牆鬆綁，向懷俄明州虛心學習，令靈活的私人企業帶頭發圍，則只會令人覺得藥石亂投，效果是製造越來越多，由毫無商業經驗之學者、官僚掛帥的白象工程。

The previous article on Blockchain and Crytocurreny has mentioned its significant effects on the market. (see: 港府打壓頻仍 加密貨幣業出走他方（新經濟系列三） )

Even the ranch is now using Blockchain: On a ranch in northern Wyoming, a ranch owner use Blockchain to prove the quality of their cattle. It can help to capture and preserve value along every single step of the supply chain, thus boosting the price and sale of the products. In March, the laws of exemption of Crytocurrenies from taxation have been passed by the state legislative, as well as defined Cryptocurrency 'utility tokens' as new asset class. This move not only simplified the usage of the Blockchain technology, but also facilitated the investment of the associated technology. After that, around 200 new companies have registered in Wyoming in recent months.  Wyoming wants technology to be a fourth pillar of its economy behind energy, tourism and agriculture. (see: Financial Times: 《Wyoming’s pioneering crypto cowboys beef up the supply chain》)

Hong Kong government has does nothing on developing Blockchain technology. On the contrary,  spending a lot of money on those with a vested interest. For example: The Lok Ma Chau Loop, Innovation and Technology Venture Fund, Greater Bay Area to mention but a few. Nowadays, Blockchain technology has been widely used in financial world. Hong Kong should learn from Wyoming. let the flexible private companies grow and develop without intervention. Otherwise, there would be nothing but white elephant.

Whether optimism or exaggeration, govt forecasts proven wrong again

Back in 2017, we highlighted in “Blind Optimism or Deliberate Exaggeration? A look at govt forecasts” that the government shaved projected HZMB usage forecast by one third in merely 10 years. The latest evidence of the already wrong forecast just came in on an HKEJ story entitled “HZMB usage forecast is revised lower” on June 19 2018. Not surprisingly, a new 2016 consultant’s report lowered the projected automotive and foot traffic by a further 12% and 26% respectively! Below is an updated chart to illustrate the ever falling economic benefit of this grand civil engineering project… the red area represents the difference between the 2008 and 2016 forecasts.

樂觀定誇大，政府要負責

筆者在2017年拙文《政府預測：盲目樂觀抑或是故意誇大？》中已指出政府在短短十年內下調港珠澳大橋車流量的估算達三分之一。最新的證據於6月19日見於信報《港珠澳大橋估算用量下跌》一文，其內提及到新顧問報告顯示2016年已調整預測之2030年車流量及人流量再被調低12%及26%。下圖乃筆者將新舊預測伸延對比，紅色區為下調區間：

 

政府重增居屋折扣 再次好心做壞事 Govt hiking HOS discounts raises moral hazard

上週政府終於抵受不了引誘，公布一系列公營房屋政策，包括進一步將居屋折扣率調高至五折、引入空置稅等等。

然而市場普遍對新政策不存奢望，如：獅子山學會評論指出若將居屋大平賣，勢必吸引大量公屋綠表戶申請，市民定會抱著「不執輸」的心態，先交資助房屋申請，令資助房屋需求人為推高但真正有需要的市民更難受惠。當樓市逆轉後，受資助房屋戶主更會首當其衝，跌入補地價的無底深潭。港府另一新政——引入空置稅亦不討好，市場學界已諸多批判之辭！而信報專欄《經濟3.0》更一矢中的，貶此舉為「既不治標也不治本，只為宣洩一下市民的怨憤而已。」

其實早於2014年7月 《居屋政策 好心做壞事》一文中，筆者已作出深入分析，證明每當樓價高漲，政府面對政治壓力就會增加居屋折扣；可惜居屋折扣被增大時，往往亦是樓價見頂之刻！可憐本來在私人市場能力最弱的市民，卻因政府的煽動而在市頂購入居屋，再之後的跌市最有可能淪為負資產一族。

稍後將為數據作一更新，把上文圖表再行發布，希望官僚及福利政客能懸崖勒馬，勿將本港樓市變成計劃經濟的另一失敗例證。

Last week, Hong Kong government has finally yielded to temptation, announcing a set of public housing policies including a higher subsidized discount on the price of home ownership scheme purchases and the introduction of the city’s first vacancy tax. 

The market commentaries that followed are far less optimistic of the effect of the new policy, for example, The Lion Rock Institution wrote in the Hong Kong Economic Journal that “such measures would make it harder for the needy to buy their homes as the perceived cheaper entry prices would attract way more applicants than normal, and create a false sense of demand… in the end, the beneficiaries of the policy may become victims trapped in a home when the market turns down. In addition, the proposed new vacancy tax has also been widely criticized for its ineffectiveness, and none has summed it up as succinctly as the HKEJ article as “this tax neither treats the disease nor its symptoms, and is launched purely to vent the discontent among the masses”.

Your author has written way back in July 2014 about this phenomenon in this article: 《居屋政策 好心做壞事》, showing that every time home price reached a peak, the government widened the discount levels of HOS. The immediate sad outcome of this policy is that the public with the least ability to afford a home would be incentivized by the government policy into buying a property right at the peak – also the time they ought to avoid entering the market.

Updated graphs and charts from the article above are being refreshed and will be posted here. It really is time to stop interfering in housing even more, and reverse course before the Hong Kong property market becomes another victim of planned economy dogma.