香港經濟 - 基數效應放大復甦力度

2021年增長看似可觀，然而….

經歷過2020年封城政策引致的嚴重收縮，坊間近日對2021年經濟增長的預測變得明顯地樂觀——幅度由3.3％到4.2％不等，平均增長率為3.8％。

然而，由於去年經濟呈現災難性下滑，上述的增長力度可能不足以回復到封城前的水平，如下圖所示：

圖一：今年經濟增長預測掩蓋了2020年的低基數效應

 

經濟增長（【圖一】藍線，黃線代表2021年市場預測）看似強勁，但如果將今年的數字與封城前的水平（紅線：兩年期同比增長）進行比較，便能發現起碼要到2022年首季才恢復疫前水平。需要注意，看似於2020年第三/四季出現的增長實質上亦是受惠於2019年社會運動影響下經濟低迷所造成的低基數效應。

若要與過去經濟下行周期比較，當前的情況看來更像2001-2003年科網泡沫/沙士衰退周期，而非於2009-2010年爆發的金融海嘯，因爲後者迅速反彈。鑑於目前的復甦態勢，今年的經濟狀況非但難以超越2019年的水平，甚至連明年也難以達到。

重拾2018年高峰，須待2023年？

那麼，經濟何年方能重回封城前之高峰？ 可能不為人知事實是，香港經濟早於2018年便見頂回落，並且在2019年（社運）及2020年（封城）持續處於下降趨勢！今年的經濟復甦之力度仍難以確定，因其完全取決於政府何時開關以重啓經濟。

圖二：GDP指數似乎指向2022年後才回到2018年的峰值

若開關遙遙無期，又或環球旅遊不能復原，則2023年重回經濟高峰的目標將更難實現。 與上次大型衰退作比較——2000年的經濟峰值要遲至2004年才得以超越；同理，假設封城措施/大量印鈔/供應鏈破壞等因素不再迅速製造第二波副作用，如債務危機/甚或政治動盪，香港經濟重拾2018年高峰之景況應可於2023年實現。

HK economics - recovery distorted by base effect

Good 2021 growth figures, but...

After the atrocious contractions of 2020 thanks to lockdowns, recent forecasts on 2021 GDP have turned distinctly rosy, ranging from 3.3% to 4.2% and averaging 3.8% growth. 

However, given the traumatic falls of 2020, these growth figures may still not be enough to take us back to pre-lockdown levels, and the chart below demonstrates this disconnect due to base effect:

Chart 1 : YoY economic growth forecasts mask low base in 2020

 

The year-on-year growth in GDP (blue line above, extended by forecasts of 2021 represented by yellow line) may appear strong, but if we were to compare this year's performance to pre-lockdown levels, as represented by 2-year changes (red line) , normalcy will not return until Q1 22. The positive blip in the red line in Q3 21 is the result of a bad comparable Q3 19 when the street protests disrupted economic activities.

In fact, the current recession looks much more like the post-dot-com/SARS one in 2001-3 than the GFC episode in 2009-10, as the latter bounced back much faster. Given the shape of the current recovery, 2021 will remain below 2019 levels for sure, and probably 2022 as well.

Return to 2018 unlikely until 2023 at the earliest

So when is the most likely time we will see the economy return to pre-lockdown days? Perhaps not widely known, HK's economy actually peaked in 2018, and has been on a downtrend in 2019 (protests) and 2020 (lockdowns), this year's recovery is yet uncertain, as it depends on how quickly the govt reopens the economy to normal business.

Even assuming immediate opening, which most market forecasts probably factored in already, we are unlikely to see the economic level return to 2018 peak levels until 2023, as the arrows in the chart below suggest:

Chart 2 - Indexed GDPs suggest return to 2018 peak after 2022

If lockdowns are extended, or global travel opening were delayed, the 2023 recapturing of prior high becomes even less probable. As a reference to the last big recession - the 2000 peak was only recaptured in 2004; we reckon the 2018 peak will most likely be retaken in 2023 at the earliest, if the side effects of lockdowns/money printing/supply chain destruction do not stoke second order economic problems or worse political unrests before we get there.