Farmland - will suffer too, but at least won't go hungry...

The Israeli/US attack on Iran has led to first a collapse in oil/gas supply, first through disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but subsequently from retaliatory bombing of GCC state energy facilities by Iran.

Petroleum shortage cuts feedstock supplies

This is not a problem of 'energy for power' only, but also how disruptions in input raw materials will impact food prices, as seen here:

Article 1: India's major fertilizer plants, including IFFCO, have shut down due to LNG shortages ...threatening urea supply, higher global prices;

Article 4: Australia's wheat farmers are cutting back plantings in favor of oilseeds and pulses due to fertilizer shortages and high costs triggered by the Iran war;

Article 6: A North Carolina farmer warns that the Persian Gulf fertilizer crisis, with urea prices surging from $475 to $550/ton due to war disruptions, will trigger a massive decline in U.S. crop yields and planted acres ...potentially driving global food prices up 12–18% by 2026.

Not only are urea (and other fertiliser shortages) going to drive up input costs, and thus producer prices selling to the market, the reduced yields and reduced production could even trigger a bigger problem - food shortage - recalling that famines lead to unrest and wars, if the situation worsens (likely), we may see much more widespread societal chaos soon...

Fuel costs to slash supply - bad for prices

The more obvious issue most people are aware of, is that oil supply disruption increases costs of everything, but from the food perspective, the impact on supply can be leading to shortages soon:

Article 2: Ireland’s fishing fleet risks grounding within 2–3 weeks from soaring diesel costs it cannot pass on, endangering 3,650 processing jobs;

Article 5: High diesel prices, up ~70% due to the Iran war, have idled over half the Dutch fishing fleet (80-90% of beam trawlers) and are crippling other European fleets, tightening fish supply and driving up prices;

Article 3: Australia’s largest ammonia plant (Yara Pilbara) will remain shut for two months after a power outage, worsening global fertilizer and explosives shortages... hitting farmers and iron ore miners.

The list can go on and on, but we will stop here. Unsurprisingly (probably due to still ample storage and reserves), agri prices have not gone up in line with other more immediately hit commodities, and may indeed underperform in the short term (red arrows), but eventually when shortage worsen enough, this will become more priceless than any electric car or wind turbine needs as people want to fill their bellies:

Meanwhile, the still modest food price reaction is probably our last chance to buy enough reserve NOW before the masses start waking up to the implications, and the inevitable mass panic and scramble buying:

Agri price index has already broken out of the down trend from the 2022 highs above, and could well recapture the 2011 highs in the next few months.

Think of ripple effects, act ahead of crowds

If you are focused on just the headlines and oil prices, then more surprises will be in store, think of everything you may need in future (eg replace that 3-yr old phone, or upgrade your 5-yr old TV), and buy NOW, before the cost tsunami take out daily necessities one after another:

We do not want to be alarmist, but it is pictures like this that gave us the peace of mind for farm ownership - yes the produce may be slashed due to costs, but at least you have all that's needed for feeding the family, if not also the remoteness from conflict/unrest centres in most of the urban centres:

With this in mind, here is a refreshed top buy farm list for our target market.

(Topbuys for clients)

We subscribe to the Scout Motto (link) of 'be prepared', and given it is the long holiday weekend, we better leave you with a vaguely humorous end to the rather macabre message above, enjoy Tom Lehrer's song of the same motto:

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HK traffic management: more nanny state bullying, less convenience

Following the previous article on improving HK’s traffic management (see link), more ideas have bubble up or were received from reader feedback. So now we follow up with some more commonsense suggestions:

Safety über alles! vs the need to pity pedestrian hearing?

Hong Kong’s pedestrian traffic signal sounds may be viewed as abrasive, even stressful to hear for road crossing public. When more than one crosswalk exists in close quarters, the overlapping noises create an overwhelming acoustic cacophony even. Could HK civil servants be too fervent in achieving their road safety mission at the expense of other stakeholders (eg residents living above crossings)?

In contrast, many other countries use gentler, softer signal sounds that alert pedestrians while keeping the experience pleasant: Japan, Mexico, and Spain employ relaxing bird chirps, while Thailand uses rhythmic beeps or melodic clicks. These quieter, more soothing alternatives are given below for you to compare:

Table 1: best practice signal sounds around the world

Style	Link to video (time stamp)	Sound imitates
	Japan (2:03)	Bird chirping
	Canada (4:10)	Soft melody
	Mexico (4:31)	Bird chirping
	Spain (6:36)	Bird chirping
	Thailand (7:25)	Soft beats

Source: global comparison video here

 Extreme nanny state molly coddling, HK style?

Since July 2022, HK has seen some 1,600 red-light projectors installed at pedestrian crossings ‘to enhance pedestrian safety’.

Figure 1: double red crossing lights not enough, let’s carpet the pavement with even more red lights!

But human nature dictates that such red carpet lighting will be ineffective at best: research by the University of Nottingham (link) suggests that 90% of pedestrians will ignore projector lights, often crossing after checking for traffic rather than following the signal.

These well-meaning bright lights cause nuisance to nearby residents as well – a complaint letter sent by Wan Chai District Councillor Lam Wai-Kong (Figure 2) is a case in point. Of course, anyone who goes to the length to complain is a very small minority of affected residents, most may just grin and bear:

Figure 2: complaint letter on light pollution

In typical paternalistic fashion dispensing other people’s money, the Transport authorities has already spent HK$9.59 million deploying these light projectors which not only needs repairs and replacement, but will in the meantime incur significant electricity costs as they are left on all day, every day of the year.

For argument’s sake, if each such projector is rated 200W, it will use 1,752 kWh of electricity per year. At the current initial deployment levels, the scheme is already costing upwards of $1.7m in tax payer money (Table 2 below). For some pet safety imperative which is not even seen elsewhere in the world for a widely travelled road user such as your correspondent!

Table 2: Estimated cost based on CLP:

	Ref	Calculations
Annual consumption of 200W bulb (kWh)	A	200x24x365/1,000 = 1,752
Per kWh cost (rate + fuel)*	B	($1.1 + $0.39) = $1.49
Annual cost per bulb	C=AxB	1,752 x 1.49 = $2,610.48
Total cost for tax payers (650 bulbs)	Cx650	$2,610.48 x 650 = $1,696,812

*using cheaper CLP pricing, current rates here: CLP & HK Electric

Hong Kong seems hell bent on controlling road user behaviour in a quest for 100% safety, at great costs to their convenience and road system efficiency. Another recent example of such idiotic (let alone unpopular) policy is well captured in the newly created crime of not putting on safety belts on public buses – thankfully now suspended (see here). This is the kind of condescending governance mentality the powers that be must change if Hong Kong is to function like a world city?

Countdown Timers for Pedestrians too?

Our original article suggested using countdown timers for cars (link), but why not extend that to pedestrians too? All the benefits of timers for cars are applicable for pedestrians as well:

Figure 3: Countdown Timers

‘Turn on red’ long over due for HK?

Another form of HK traffic management improvement should be familiar for regular travellers to North America: the ability for cars to turn at cross roads when the forward traffic signal is red, as illustrated here:

Figure 4: How left-turn on red works

Basically when turning left (or right if you are looking at American system) when the forward light is red as shown by the green arrow above. There are a number of benefits for such an arrangement (eg found in research from International Journal of Transportation Science and Technology), generally improving traffic flow and overall cross road capacity.

One good example in HK can be found at the Jordan Road – Wui Man Road junction in Yau Ma Tei. The current outdated intersection controls creates significant vehicle tail backs during busy periods, with traffic coming out of the Western Tunnel heading Eastwards through Jordan Road lacking the ability to be directed northwards (ie. Turning left in Figure 4 below), even when cross traffic is generally very thin. This area is additionally infamous for its multiple red-light crossings within a short stretch, leading to frequent stops.

Figure 5: Jordan Road traffic should benefit from Left turn on red big time

HK is one of the jurisdictions where turn on red is prohibited, even though this arrangement is widely practised in China. With increasing integration into its hinterland, now is the opportune moment to make that upgrade.

There may be many other areas we can improve HK’s transport experience, we will write about them when we have a chance. If you feel like helping our city move ahead, then write to the administrators or policy makers and lobby for changes…

The author would like to thank Chau Chak Kwan from The City University of Hong Kong majoring in Global Business Systems Management and Chan Hoi Ki from The City University of Hong Kong majoring in Finance for assisting in data collection and analysis of this article.

Extra material

based on a University of Hong Kong study suggests these devices could reduce red-light jumping by 25%, as they effectively https://english.dotdotnews.com/a/202306/23/AP649541cee4b08eeabfe03db8.html

【理財新世代】財政預算案地產相關政策及樓市前景分析 20260228

2026年2月28日

主題：財政預算案地產相關政策及樓市前景分析

背景：
財政預算案剛剛公布，公眾之前憧憬會否有更多刺激樓市的措施，結果似乎落空，不過，從呢份財政預算案又能否反映政府對未來香港房地產的取態或反映可以帶來一些啟示？


1. 先問下你對今次財政預算案整體評分，如果100分是滿分，你會俾幾多分？那些地方你覺得做得好？那些地方仍然未能針對市場的真正需要，仍有空間可以做好？

2. 講完整體評分，講你既專長：房地產。如果針對財政預算案對房產業的評分，你又會點俾分？係咪真係可以對症下藥，令香港的房地產可以重拾輝煌？抑或政府施政已經調整了房產定位？

3. 財政預算案公布前夕，坊間有好多建議俾財爺參考，例如：進一步將住宅印花稅100元的門檻由目前400萬元調升至500萬元，結果無，可能好多準買家也會有少少失望，係財政預算案之前，你自己心目中有冇一些建議或措施你認為現在應該要做，但結果沒有做？

4. 睇番今次財政預算案在地產市場雖然有著墨，但唔算多。先睇未來房屋供應量，財爺表示連同「簡約公屋」，本港未來5年總體公營房屋建屋量約19.6萬個單位，較本屆政府上任時的五年期增加超過八成。如果計數，即每年平均有4萬個公營房屋建屋量落成，比較以前，呢個建屋量或供應量屬於一個甚麼水平？健康？過低？過多？能否引用數據來證明？

5. 至於私營房屋供應方面，預計今年起的5年內，私人住宅單位每年平均落成量約1.7萬個，較過去5年平均數減少約8%。未來3-4年，一手私人住宅單位潛在供應量約為10.4萬個。落成量減少了，其實係咩原因？發展商起少了還是其他原因？另一方一手供應量未來3-4年，每年平均仍然有至少2.6萬個供應量，以過去3年一手銷售量計，市場需求是否足夠承接這供應量？

6. 土地供應方面，未來5年，政府會準備可供興建約9.8萬個私營房屋單位的土地。來年賣地表包括九幅住宅用地，加上鐵路物業發展、市區重建局（市建局）及私人發展和重建項目，預計全年的潛在土地供應可供興建大約2.2萬個單位。至於考慮到非住宅物業市場空置率、現時及未來供求情況，政府來年繼續不推售一般商業用地。你如何解讀政府的土地供應對後市的預測？原因？

7. 基於上述考量之下，你對今年香港的樓價預測為何？

8. 另外，財爺提到港投公司將會與區域和國際長期資本合作，引導資金投向符合香港產業定位的優質商業物業項目，並把有關項目與目標行業的企業對接。其實這是甚麼？目的又是甚麼？究竟想吸引那些資金來香港商業物業市場？

9. 同一時間，政府將1億元以上的住宅物業交易印花稅稅率，由4.25%調高至6.5%，影響約0.3%的住宅物業交易，估計每年可增加約10億元收入。好明顯是這是富人稅，但對物業市場影響大嗎？

10. 預案中提到「互聯互通」安排：目前正與內地研究加快落實將房託基金納入「互聯互通」、另外，年內亦會立法優化家族辦公室和基金稅制，以及便利房託基金私有化；明年修例為準備上市的房託基金轉讓非住宅物業寬免印花稅，這些金融措施對投資者有冇幫助？


報導來源：香港電台【理財新世代】

https://www.rthk.hk/tv/dtt31/programme/investmentera_tv/episode/1075771


特此鳴謝

監製：李以莊

主持：黃瑋傑、彭藹嬈

攝影及剪接: 香港電台公共事務組



最後，筆者想藉信報一篇專欄分析《「量入為出」靠調錢借債填氹》指出，政府宣稱的『量入為出』原則實際上依賴調撥基金（如債券基金累計盈餘370億元及外匯基金投資收入）和大量發債來填補赤字。例如2025/26年度綜合帳目表面錄得29億元盈餘，但若扣除發行1550億元債券及償還517億元到期款項，實際赤字高達約1004億元；土地收入修訂僅175億元（較原預算低35億元），遠低於過去高峰，顯示財政並非真正平衡，而是透過會計技巧及借債維持表面盈餘。這可能誤導公眾對政府財政健康的認知，忽略結構性問題如土地銷售長期低迷，導致財政壓力最終轉嫁市民。