顯示包含「usdt」標籤的文章。顯示所有文章
顯示包含「usdt」標籤的文章。顯示所有文章

2026年9月23日星期三

Privacy coins crushing blue chips

 Strong run continues apace

Two weeks ago, we explored the background of why privacy crypto coins were doing so well. We didn't expect their stellar rises to have continued, here is the one-month performance vs BTC (black line):

ZCash has since risen 106% vs BTC's 4%, on a one-year horizon, its performance is a jaw dropping 29x:

All of this highlights how screwy the world has become, and the relentless poking at the people's private financial affairs by the bankrupt govts is driving more money underground...

In view of this new trend, we heartily recommend you read an excellent primer comparing the big two privacy coins: Monero vs Zcash (Article 3), and which one might be suited to your needs.

Weaponisation of Stablecoins

As we have half expected, as soon as govts lay their hands on the levers of control, they cannot resist pulling them. And how hard they did this time, whether maliciously or willfully, against some unsuspecting genuine userss.

The whole sordid story is painfully laid out in Article 2, chronicaling how Tether froze USDT wallets at government request, without warrant or court sanctions. Basicallyl Tether (or other regulated stablecoin issuers) are now the 'legal' way through which governments could not constitutionally do by themselves!

Decentralised Stables the way forward?

In view of this alarming development, may be all our future stable holdings will need to go decentralised... Luckily in the self executing protocol space, and with reasonable liquidity, we have Ethena (USDe) and DAI to fall on:

Both are trading on as narrow 90-day volatility ranges as Tether, and both have well over 3 years of track record. Perhaps these will now become the privacy coin equivalent of winners in the stablecoin space as self protecting users also flee the potential tyranny and confiscation they might be subjected to?

A scary summary of the above dystopian Tether incident is summarised well in this schematic:

Perhaps freedom loving Americans need to find ways to reverse this quick or they will be no different from the average East German under Stasi?

Some good news amongst the doom and gloom

The good news however, is that crypto at large do seem to have caught their cyclical bottom as we highlighted in an earlier technical analysis reprot - one of which we did not include is added here:

In fact, looking at more technicals, that does indeed suggest so:

Bitcoin could even trashing the AI infussed S&P:

There are champions of personal freedoms out there

Despite the ever encrouching state, it is not all grim ahead, we see liberty championing crypto natives starting to fight back, eg billionaire Ben Delo (see his fascinating, even inspiring story in Article 1).


Article 1: Reform’s £36m donor Ben Delo: Oxford-educated crypto king who was thrown out of three primary schools, pardoned by Trump and became UK’s youngest self-made billionaire

Article 2: How the government is using Tether to build the financial component of the surveillance state

Article 3: Monero vs Zcash: Which Privacy Coin Wins in 2026?

2023年3月17日星期五

Which Alternative to USDC now? 20220314

Following the USDC depegging, triggered by custodian bank bankruptcy, it is opportune to re-examine the quality of stable coins on the market (which we do at least 3 times a year as a matter of course), and the results are summarised in today's missive below...


There are many levels of risks attached to stablecoins, and the table below looks at 3 aspects:

a) how often and how reliable are issuers audited - obviously USDC has the most prestigious auditor in the form of Deloitte, followed by BDO which issues reports on assets for USDT. This is cold comfort however when SVB itself is audited by KPMG, another big-4 firm...

b) how liquid are the asset backing - here USDC does best with almost all collateral in the most liquid category of assets (cash or short term TBs), followed by USDT (only 18% in longer dated TBs), while DAI is mostly in cryptos (but still 64% being USDC backed);

c) who are the custodian banks - here it is very hard to gauge whether bigger banks are better (more liquidity?) or worse (more complex derivatives books?), but since most of the issuers do not disclose this information (the USDC one only came to light following the SVB crisis), there is no easy way to quantify the counterparty risk at all...

For tradfi supporters, USDC still presents the best protection; for crypto maximalists however, DAI could offer a better solution (but needs to rid itself of tradfi backing to be purist - ie use BTC/ETH as asset collaterals rather than USDC/GUSD and the like).


What about hedging with derivatives?

Aside from avoiding volatility by parking in stablecoins, another way might be to buy put options for downside protection. Below we have done a scenario based on today's prices:

Sadly costs are too steep for hedging under normal circumstances - as can be seen in 3rd column above, for at the money hedging, 12-14% of the portfolio needs to be sold to buy the protection...


So we are back to stablecoins then...

As a result, it seems we are stuck with stablecoins for now, and our hope remain that when BTC becomes big and liquid enough to absorb all hedging activities, perhaps we will have a working decentralised and purely crypto based hedge.

Until that day, here is our updated risk metric table - for now USDT and BUSD seem to be better scoring given the high volatility seen in USDC in the past few days:

When combined by the qualitative factors discussed in the earlier sections, we will stick with USDC for now...

With the crisis now seemingly over, we are seeing all USDC trading pairs on the larger DEX platforms back to normal behaviour, eg:

Here are not small U$120k trade vs WBTC is attracting only a price impact of 0.24% on one of the several side chain pools. Hail decentralisation!

As we commented earlier also, the coincidence of crypto banks being brought down almost simultaneously is raising questions elsewhere as to whether the takedowns were coordinated - see article 1 below for more. In the end, just like centralised banks fail while decentralised crypto networks continue unfazed, perhaps this will be the norm years in the future?


-----------------------------------------------------article 1------------------------------------------------------------
Binance’s CZ Speculates a Coordinated Effort to Shut Down Crypto-Friendly Banks is in Play

Vignesh Karunanidhi | March 11, 2023


...Unfortunately, the banking realm took a hit with the fall of Silvergate Bank. The issues also escalated with the recent downfall of the Silicon Valley bank.

...Changpeng Zhao, aka CZ, recently put out a tweet highlighting the recent shutdown of cryptocurrency-friendly banks:

Pure speculation. It almost feels like there is a coordinated effort to shutdown crypto friendly banks.

Result?

Banks are shut down.

Blockchains still running.

— CZ 🔶 Binance (@cz_binance) March 11, 2023


CZ says crypto-friendly banks are being shut down

CZ speculates that it feels like there’s a coordinated effort to shut down crypto-friendly banks. The tweet is a follow-up to the recent downfall of two of the cryptocurrency-friendly banks, Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank. These two banks had a significant relationship with some of the most prominent cryptocurrency giants. However, the relationship has taken a toll as the banks are no longer in play to provide their services to these cryptocurrency businesses.

Perhaps CZ also highlighted the result of this speculative shutdown of cryptocurrency-friendly banks. He mentioned in his tweet that the banks might be shut down, but the blockchains are still up and running.

One Twitter user commented on the tweet, stating that it’s time to stay united and that only CZ can lead the cryptocurrency community out of this darkness.

However, CZ mentioned that there is no necessity for leaders in a decentralized ecosystem, and he also stressed the fact that it works better without a leader.​


​https://watcher.guru/news/binances-cz-speculates-a-coordinated-effort-to-shut-down-crypto-friendly-banks-is-in-play