【Metro Radio】 新城財經台 新城地產街 20250412

 載於2025年04月12日 【Metro Radio 新城地產街】 

主題: 

》首季住宅物業市道情況如何？踏入第二季，外圍環境受到特朗普向全球徵收對等關稅影響，全球股市一度大幅下挫，閣下如何看投資環境？負財富效應下，會否影響入市信心？

》估計對那類物業影響會較大？豪宅及中小型住宅走勢又是否同步？

》今年首季發展商都積極推售新盤，但價格仍然貼近二手市場價格，閣下如何評估新盤定價？未來新盤推盤策略如何？開價對市場指標作用？

》另外，北部都會區是本港經濟的新增長點。為加快北都建設，發展局去年12月底邀請市場就北部都會區三個「片區開發」試點提交意向書，以敲定日後公開招標的細節和條款，目標是由今年下半年起至2026年期間，陸續為 3個「片區開發」試點進行招標，早前收到22份家財團意向書？如何規劃發展？

主持: 林潔瑩

嘉賓主持: 戴德梁行估價部董事黎劍明

嘉賓: 高力國際香港研究部主管李婉茵

新城連結：Bricks & Mortar Management 主席兼總裁王震宇

Macro – Tariff wars: property impact (mostly HK) 20250411

The Trump style of governance by social media makes it a very effective way to play out his Art of the Deal techniques, for example, this is his announcement of the latest rules overnight, from his Truth Social post:




By throwing his weight around, initially with Canada and Mexico, then with EU, and now with rest of the world, it shows how powerful the US, as what I would call ‘the global consumer of last resort’, can really force agenda changes around the world, and how so many other countries buckled immediately (see updated response column):



Not only is Trump quick to mount his assaults, he is equally rapid in retreating, hence today’s latest round of 90-day suspension reversal:

The violent reactions in the market is a good indicator we are in unchartered territory on this tariff issue. And the policy flipflops in the US is also contributing to the volatility.

We will chronicle the recent progress in section 1, before assessing the new geopolitical reality and how it will impact HK assets.

Fast draw, quick fire, and swift win?

Sole push-back from PRC – may still end in a deal?

The only one remaining resistance to the US tariffs is China. And what an escalation it has been (article 2, 5):



We are obviously worried this will escalate further, which will hurt everyone in the world, but are also quietly hopeful that rationality will prevail and a deal will eventually be struck. China does indeed have some powerful weapons in its arsenal, including:

a) dominant global trade position now – where it has the bulk of the international market as its partner, compared to the US, in other words, most other countries will suffer if they do not trade with China:



b) China’s large US treasuries holdings – some commentators worry about a sustained sale wreaking havoc on US’s debt and interest management:



But on closer inspection, CN’s holding of U$0.7trn of treasuries (red line above, is only 2.2% of total – red shade above), and even if they sold everything in one day, the impact would be less than 70% of the daily trade volume (black line below):



As a result we do not expect this as a meaningful lever to pull in the current trade dispute. The bigger worry should rather be how the rest of the world can keep increasing its appetite to accommodate the ever ballooning US treasury supply – now at close to $30trn a year in annual issues (bars in chart above).

c) RMB depreciation – basically for all countries facing tariff hikes, the easier route to offset (the obvious side effects of importing inflation aside), in fact, for low cost manufacturing nations, even triple digit tariffs may not result in manufacturing jobs shifting back to the USA (see article 7).

A likely outcome of the tariff war may well be the start of competitive devaluation to gain edge over other exporters. In the meantime, fast moving companies are already trying to beat the deadlines, but making dramatic moves like this:



d) escalation beyond trade – besides just tariff, both sides could get so entrenched as to start other forms of mutual sanctions, such as suggestion that US might delist PRC companies from US stock exchanges (article 6). This is where we worry most as the impact can spiral out of just trade, and hit many other sectors – eg the biggest risk to HK could be its open capital account needing access to the USD – in the most extreme case, could the HKD need to be depegged due to punitive measures from the US?

In fact smart US companies may already be plotting their exit of the HK/CN markets, and when sufficient proportions of the US corporate world have retracted (see article 4 where JP Morgan has sold its HK custody business), more severe sanctions would be much easier to be effected. Even countries are starting to view Chinese connection as a disadvantage, and siding with US in a potential geopolitical standoff (see article 1).

HK fundamentals – not too good either

Here are some factors that puts HK at risk and property prices on a downward bias:

a) Trade still too important a sector – with import/export accounting 9% of all employment in HK (light blue line), any trade spat is likely cause disproportionate amount of harm to local jobs and spending:

Total export has been seen to drive HK’s rents, and with trade falling, rents could also weaken:

b) Strong USD to depress local consumption further – it is already well aired that HK consumers are now spending weekends and holidays in cheap currency neighbours given the strong USD of the last few years. In a competitive devaluation scenario, this trend will undermine further HK’s domestic consumption – eg RMB is already down to its weakest level since 2008!

c) massive public housing supply about to hit the market – Yep, whatever the private developers hold back in supply, the govt’s usual pro-cyclical public housing policy will come to wreck the party: look at how strong the red and blue bars will surge in the next five years to take total supply in HK to the highest level since 2001:



We can only say – good luck to home buyers…

What are the possible good news from this?

This tariff episode may have its bright spots, however, such as:

– with tariff income, US can reform and abolish income tax as Trump promised;

– global markets cut domestic regulation / indirect taxes to appease the US, is structurally bullish for promoting free trade;

– China to launch massive credit easing to soften the blow => consumption spending up, trickle effect down to HK perhaps…

– HK and China both work harder to developer global South markets (article 3), opening up more diverse revenue streams in the process


=====================Article 1====================

Sino Chairman Robert Ng, Children Named Under Singapore Foreign Influence Law

2025/04/07 by Michael Cole

Singapore is set to declare one of its wealthiest property tycoons and three of his children as “politically significant persons” under a law designed to prevent foreign meddling in the country’s politics.

[…]

https://www.mingtiandi.com/real-estate/people/singapore-names-sinos-robert-ng-under-foreign-influence-act/

======================Article 2===================

China sticks to its guns as fresh US tariff threat pushes tension to the brink

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, April 8 (Reuters) – China vowed on Tuesday to “fight to the end” against U.S. tariffs as some citizens railed against President Donald Trump after he singled out Beijing for further levies, setting the stage for a standoff between the world’s two largest economies.

[…]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china-says-it-will-never-accept-us-blackmail-escalated-tariff-threats-2025-04-08/

======================Article 3===================

Hong Kong eyes Southeast Asian, Middle Eastern business ties in next chapter of belt and road plan

William Yiu 17 Feb 2024

Hong Kong will focus on business collaborations with Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern countries under the country’s belt and road plan, the head of the initiative’s local wing has said amid plans to launch a festival championing the scheme among residents.

[…]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3252271/hong-kong-eyes-southeast-asian-middle-eastern-business-ties-next-chapter-belt-and-road-plan

======================Article 4===================

JPMorgan picks HSBC, StanChart to run $500 bln custody business in Hong Kong, Taiwan

By Selena Li March 1, 2024

HONG KONG, March 1 (Reuters) – JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), opens new tab has selected HSBC (HSBA.L), opens new tab and Standard Chartered (STAN.L), opens new tab to operate its custody businesses in Hong Kong and Taiwan, with assets worth more than $500 billion, a spokesperson for the U.S. bank said.

[…]

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-picks-hsbc-stanchart-run-500-bln-custody-business-hong-kong-taiwan-2024-03-01/

======================Article 5===================

Beijing prepared for US tariff retaliation: Regina Ip

2025-04-08

The central government is well prepared and has a broad arsenal to respond to any further tariff escalation by US President Donald Trump, according to Executive Council convenor Regina Ip.

[…]

https://gbcode.rthk.hk/TuniS/news.rthk.hk/rthk/en/component/k2/1799392-20250408.htm

=====================Article 6====================

Delist Chinese stocks from US indices? Trump administration says ‘everything’s on the table’

9 Apr 2025

US’ Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has said that “everything’s on the table” when it comes to removing Chinese companies from American stock exchanges, amid the ongoing tariff war between Washington and Beijing.

[…]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/global-trends/delist-chinese-stocks-from-us-indices-trump-administration-says-everythings-on-the-table/articleshow/120128240.cms?from=mdr

=====================Article 7====================

Trump’s tariff own-goal

David Webb 3 April 2025

He apparently has no idea how much this will hurt US consumers and how little it will affect the trade deficit. Asian manufacturers and their investors can, to a large extent, sleep easy tonight.

[…]

https://webb-site.com/articles/trumptariff.asp

Macro - Liberation Day winners & losers 20250403

The much awaited 'by country score card' of US tariffs is finally out overnight (see article 1). What is clear is the US's determination to level the playing field, as it has been 'ripped off' by trading partners which have far more punishing trade duties/barriers than US: The distribution of the tariff rates can be seen from article 1 as well, but here is the global distribution from low tariffs (green) to high (red) - it is obvious that the whole Asian export complex is hit, even US's traditional allies S Korea and Japan: Most hurt of course are the SEA nations which have received much offshoring and reshoring investment in recent years. But what the currency markets have reflected are positive surprises for Japan and Switzerland (blue circles), while Thailand and S Africa (red circles) may have been more punished than expected: Whilst not surprising, the US also closed the loop on China's small parcels route to exporting given earlier brief tariff imposition which was quickly reversed. To show how big the Chinese parcel export industry has become, this is an excellent chart: Yes you got it right, out of top 20 cities that sell on Amazon, only 7 cities are non-Chinese, which take the top 4 spots by a wide margin... By trade bloc impact assessment Below we have broken down the impacted nations by trade blocs - OECD (orange), SEA (blue), and N Asia (green): reference to nations' response are given at the end The key impact columns are 4th from right, indicating which country is hit hardest within that bloc: EU was punished hardest in OECD, while Cambodia/Laos/Vietnam hurt most in SEA, and China/Taiwan both are bruised more than peers. On a total economic materiality basis (5th column), top 3 hit countries are Cambodia, Vietnam, Taiwan. The latter being the most surprising entry in our study... Obviously this is just Trump's opening salvo, and as the 'Art of the Deal' requires, give and take will eventually result in a quite different set of results from this announcement. We await the wide ranging negotiations to begin from today... obviously the more flexible the country is in its executive decision making, the quicker they will reduce the impact of these reciprocal tariffs... Our guess is that most SEA nations fall into this category. ​Response above are from these sources: A) Japan - Seeking exemptions and negotiating with U.S. counterparts. B) European Union - Postponed counter-tariffs and prefers a negotiation.​ C) Canada and Mexico - Exempt from baseline tariff but concerned about broader impacts.​ D) China - Retaliatory tariffs and suspended export permits for certain U.S. soybean producers. ​​ ======================Article 1=================== We now know the full extent of Trump's reciprocal tariffs. They’re huge. April 3, 2025 “Liberation Day” turned out to be alarming. President Trump floored investors by announcing the largest tax hike on Americans since at least the 1940s. [...] The April 2 announcements included two sets of import tariffs. One is a new “universal” tax on imports from everywhere. The average tariff rate on imports at the start of the year was about 2.5%. So the 10% universal tariff on its own would raise the average tariff to 12.5%. That would be the highest since around 1940. [...] Americans bought about $3.3 trillion worth of imports in 2024. The tariff rate of about 2.5% yielded a tariff tax bill of about $83 billion. Investing firm Evercore estimates that all the new tariffs combined will push the tax rate on imports to about 29%. ​https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-now-know-the-full-extent-of-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-theyre-huge-232020114.html​ ======================Article 2=================== Trump signs order that closes duty exemptions for cheap shipments from China April 3, 2025 [...] The order says Trump is ending duty-free treatment for the covered goods imported from China and Hong Kong starting at 12:01 a.m. ET (0401 GMT) on May 2, according to a fact sheet provided by the White House. ​https://www.reuters.com/markets/trump-signs-order-that-closes-duty-exemptions-cheap-shipments-china-2025-04-02/​ ======================Article 3=================== Morgan Stanley Sees Tough Road for Trump Deals With China, India [...] China is the most exposed to these tariffs, followed by India and Vietnam, according to a research note sent to clients on Wednesday. These three countries could also find it more challenging than other economies in the region to sign a pact by April, according to analysts led by Chetan Ahya. [...] “President Trump’s focus on fixing the US’ large and persistent trade deficit means that Asia will be exposed,” the analysts wrote, adding that much of the risk to the region’s economies will come not just from the direct hit of the tariffs. “The indirect effects of tariffs matter more – that is, the persistence of trade tensions will weigh on corporate confidence, capex and trade.” ​https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/morgan-stanley-sees-tough-road-for-trump-deals-with-china-india/ar-AA1zqVCf?ocid=EMMX​

香港交通演進慢 新興城市領先遙 20250212

政府在對外宣傳香港時常以「亞洲國際都會」自居，但從香港日漸落後兼不再便民的管理系統來看，似乎稍為名不副實。筆者在兩篇文章內討論此與民生息息相關的需求如何在本港漸漸落後於人。

 

紅綠燈焦慮

等待行人過路紅燈轉綠的時間由30秒至超過一分鐘，這種不知盡頭的等待實可令人煩燥不安。可以肯定，若閣下的等候是由倒數的秒錶調節，緊張情緒是否大大減低？對駕駛者而言，在駛向路口時因不知那刻黃／紅燈會亮起而感到徬徨？甚至因判斷錯誤而冒險衝燈？

以上情景無疑是環球越來越多城市採用倒數交通燈系統的原因，不論是從紅燈倒數到綠燈，還是由綠燈去紅。訪港遊客必會不明為何香港道路上如此基本的便民交通管理手段竟然完全欠奉，儘管此系統在其他城市早已普及：

圖一：中國深圳	圖二：新加坡
圖三：越南胡志明市	圖四：泰國曼谷

 新加坡在此範疇再度領先本港，早於2003年就已實施該系統，甚至連深圳（2009年）、胡志明市（2010年）和曼谷（2013年）等新興經濟體的城市也大肆實行。然而據了解，港府除了在2022年做了一個試點後便完全沒有下文。

 

多項研究已經證明，交通燈號倒數多有好處，包括：

• 在交叉路口顯著改善司機的反應——在「兩難區」（即不確定是否應在黃燈時停下或繼續前進的區域）內，駕駛者在倒數至紅燈前停下的比例提高了13%，且急速煞掣的情況亦明顯下降（見報告）；
• 節省22%啟動時間——在路燈轉綠時能更為順暢並減少延誤（見報告）；
• 減少50%多的闖紅燈行為——令路燈轉紅初期，更為安全；
• 提高通行能力——更高的可預視性可以減少車輛間距的波幅，直接提升交叉路口車輛容量達5%至10%。

既然交通燈倒數具有如此眾多的優勢（以上研究還列舉其他優點，在此按下不表），兼在環球城市廣泛的普及，不禁令人質疑：香港運輸署為何遲遲舉棋不定？

 

不設對角行人線 更待何時？

即使是長沙這樣的三線城市【圖五】，亦早已廣泛實行對角行人線，然而香港堂堂金融中心，卻至今推出小貓兩隻之數。

圖五：中國長沙的對角線行人過路處

本港第一個對角行人線於2024年1月31日開設於沙田沙角街與逸泰街交界，千呼萬喚後方見尖沙咀加拿芬道與加連威老道交界於2024年8月開通第二個：

圖六：開通前

圖七：開通後只是正式化常人一直會做的事

 

實情是在路上尚未畫上對角行人線前，市民早已自發地以對角線方向過馬路。背後原因顯而易見——眾多行人不只是要過一條馬路，而是兩條；新的安排為大眾省去了每年數以百萬小時計的等待時間。

運輸署為何不主動研究此安排可為行人省卻的時間，而要等到社會訴求響徹雲霄才有所行動？事實上，早已有多項研究證明對角行人線的優點，例如90年代Vaziri在比華利山的一項研究（見此）顯示，在設定對角行人線的路口，行人事故平均減少66%。

 

何處擴大覆蓋？歡迎留言！

筆者以舉世知名的對角行人線——東京澀谷的十字路口作結【圖八】，此對角行人線早於1973年已啟用。這種安排在日本被稱為スクランブル交差点（發音：sukuranburu-kōsaten），在當地大受歡迎。目前日本全國已有超過300個交叉路口採用（參考資料見此）。

圖八：東京澀谷路口

香港在這方面絕對相形見絀，急須追趕國際步伐。筆者粗略挑選了一些潛在可行的地點（例如中環畢打街路口，【圖九】），但閣下的建議無疑能快速擴大目標名單，而更快為全港市民帶來便利。

圖九：可能新增的地點：畢打街 - 德輔道交界

 

筆者特別鳴謝香港城市大學環球商業學系Ng Shiu Long Colin同學和香港大學會計及財務學系譚嘉蕊同學協助收集及整理本文相關數據及圖表。

 

【理財新世代】美國減息後本港樓市表現 20241130

 2024年11月30日

主題:

》美國9月份終於減息0.5%，11月初再減息0.25%。踏入第四季後，中國政府亦推出系列救市組合拳，曾經令港股一度衝上23000點，不過之後反反覆覆，到10月份施政報告，進一步推出放寬樓市措施。理論上，減息撤辣，這些都屬於利好香港樓市的消息，但究竟事實又是否如此？香港樓市是否已經見底？ 

》由美國9月份開始減息，中國政府亦推出系列救市組合拳，10月份施政報告更進一步推出放寬樓市措施。理論上，這些都是利好香港樓市的消息。

(i) 首先，減息會否進一步吸引資金回流股市及樓市？

(ii) 有否數據反映減息可以釋出的資金池有多大？是否就等於流入樓市？

》踏入第四季，大陸以刺激股市的方法來帶動財富效應，希望可扭轉內房弱勢

(i) 你認為這方法是否可行？原因？

(ii) 香港係咪都可以借用呢種財富效應來帶動樓市？

(iii) 傳統智慧通常股市都會領先樓市大約半年，你覺得這種傳統智慧在今時今日是否仍合時宜？原因？

》踏入第四季，我們看見由美國減息，香港亦跟隨減息，再到中港兩地推出刺激樓市措施，理論上，通通有利樓市，我們見到有交投，但至今似乎又未見香港樓市有十分明顯的回暖情況，中原指數在11月初仍然是138水平，和9月頭水平相約，點解眾多利好因素之下，仍然未能利好香港樓市？

(i) 原因何在？市場是否過份憧憬減息及刺激措施帶來的效力？

(ii) 現在仍有哪些重要因素在影響香港樓市？(前景信心？預期樓價通縮？其他？)

》睇一些近期銷售數據，截至9月底，私人住宅樓宇，不包括居者有其屋、私人機構參與興建居屋、租者至其屋等計劃，由發展商出售的一手樓盤單位總計銷售數字為11920個；銷售總金額為1350億元左右，平均每個單位大約價值1133萬元。2023年同期的數字，分別為8890個單位、總金額1068億元、平均每個單位大約價值1201萬元。這數據反映甚麼？

》我們嘗試返回最基本的市場供求 – 即庫存及去貨量，來預測香港樓市。

(i) 早前房屋局公布的一手住宅潛在供應量，截至9月底仍有多達2.1萬伙的現樓貨尾，未計及未來兩年入伙，你們估計2025及2026兩年的香港的一手樓庫存量有多少？

(ii) 有否數據顯示二手樓的供應量？

(iii) 一、二手樓的供應量合共是多少？

(iv) 香港過去兩年的每年的平均銷售量為多少？

(v) 以此計算，要幾耐才可以去庫存？

》昔日帶動香港樓市上揚的其中一大動力，是內地客，但隨著內地樓市暫時仍未見起色，香港是否也受壓？兩者之間的關連性有多大？另外，一系的高才通等計劃，是否可以有助推高香港樓市需求？

》另一個值得關注數據是負資產數目，金管局10月底公布第三季末負資產住宅按揭貸款宗數為40,713宗，較第二季末30,288宗上升逾萬宗（逾34%），呢個負資產宗數亦係自2003年第4季（67,575宗）後﹑即近21年的新高。仲量聯行更估計實際負資產數目唔止4萬宗，因為數字仍未計發展商及財仔二按，因此估計可能高達約8萬宗。

(i) 高負資產宗數對樓市影響為何？

(ii) 負資產宗數仲有冇機會再上升？

》你認為香港樓市何時才可見曙光?你估計下年香港樓市是升還是跌？幅度是多少？

》最後，自住及投資是兩種不同的考慮，有何建議給我們的聽眾及觀眾？

(i) 自住置業幾時係入市時機？

(ii) 仍然鍾情於磚頭的投資者，究竟可以考慮買磚頭？房地產股票？或其他？

報導來源：香港電台【理財新世代】

https://www.rthk.hk/tv/dtt31/programme/investmentera_tv/episode/928956


特此鳴謝


主持: 黃瑋傑、徐家健


攝影及剪接: 香港電台公共事務組