RTHK Interview / 專訪— King Sir會客室：Bricks&Mortar主席兼總裁 王震宇

筆者早前獲香港電台邀請接受King Sir訪問，與兩位主持人及各聽眾分析從美國縮表及加息對樓市之影響、歐債危機之探討以至未來2018年香港樓價走勢。以上乃筆者受訪片段之節錄。

遲來的春天：政府終於研究六隧分流 紅隧獅隧加費 公帑補貼西隧減價 20171114

早於二零一零年，筆者已提議幾項疏導隧道擠塞問題之方案（見：西隧加價無罪，政府袖手有失），望能拋磚引玉。遑遑逾七載，政府方姍姍來遲，甫研究以公帑補貼西隧減價（見下文）。如此議而不行，實非市民之福！望政府能把握時間，急市民所急，盡早解決隧道瓶頸。

六隧分流 倡紅隧獅隧加費 料2021年全超負荷 擬公帑補貼西隧減價
《明報》2017年11月14日

【明報專訊】政府去年8月起接管東區海底隧道，隨即研究3條過海隧道（東隧、紅隧、西隧）的分流安排，根據政府顧問初步評估，由於該3條隧道與3條由沙田至市區的陸上隧道（大老山隧道、獅子山隧道、尖山及沙田嶺隧道）使用量互有影響，故隧道費調整需以六隧為基礎。政府建議紅隧及獅隧必須加費，其替代隧道同時減費，並藉公帑補貼減低西隧收費。

上班時間紅隧超負荷77%
立法會交通事務委員會本周五討論六隧分流初步評估結果，運輸及房屋局昨向立法會提交文件，指4條隧道的車流在繁忙時間已超過其設計容量，以紅隧最擠塞，早上及傍晚繁忙時間的車流分別較設計容量超出77%和69%，但西隧和尖山及沙田嶺隧道車流仍低於其設計容量（見表）。運房局預計，若隧道費不變，六隧車流在2021年的繁忙時間將超出其設計容量。而中環灣仔繞道明年底至2019年初通車後，將增加西隧車流，但西隧尚有空間接收分流自紅隧及東隧的車。

紅隧獅隧收費18年未調整
運房局表示，將在本立法年度向立法會提交隧道費調整方案，由於顧問經初步評估，認為社會各界提出的5類方案無助改善繁忙時間使用率過高的隧道車流（見另稿），故局方建議應按7項框架探討具體方案，包括調整隧道費時應涵蓋六隧，六隧亦不應「零收費」，以免引起額外車流；又建議適度上調紅隧及獅隧收費，並同時減低其替代隧道收費，因為兩隧位處本港中央，有最佳的連接道路網絡，收費亦最低，並自1999年起未曾調整，但政府未有提出加幅。現時紅隧及獅隧的私家車隧道費分別為20元及8元。

重點調整私家車的士電單車收費
至於各類車輛的收費，局方認為調整重點在於私家車、的士及電單車收費，指這3種車佔所有隧道總交通流量約73%，綠色專線小巴及巴士則因行走固定路線而不建議加費。運房局又指可先在周日及公眾假期試行不同時段有不同收費，因車流較平日低，長遠應探討設立隧道費調整機制。

陳帆﹕對所有方案持開放態度
西隧專營權2023年屆滿，運房局稱，會與西隧專營公司商討在收回西隧前，運用公帑提供補貼令西隧減價，但不排除最終未能與西隧達成協議。

運房局長陳帆昨晚出席活動後表示，文件是陳述概念及對現况的中期分析，政府聽取立法會議員意見後將深入分析，現階段對所有方案持開放態度。對於西隧專營權期限仍未屆滿，他指政府會尊重合約精神，冀透過商討與西隧專營公司達成協議，令西隧在專營權屆滿前不要加價。

議員倡管理需求　提早回購西隧
立法會交通事務委員會委員胡志偉認為，政府藉調整隧道費以改變司機選擇隧道是「捉錯用神」，應循需求管理方向解決。另一委員田北辰則認為，3條過海隧道中，紅隧因位置優越而收費應最貴，西隧則第二貴，東隧最便宜，並提出應在合理條件下與西隧公司探討提早回購西隧的可能。

香港運輸研究學會資深會員熊永達表示，西隧實際收費（私家車65元）遠低於現時法定收費（私家車225元），政府應解釋以公帑補貼是以哪種收費為基礎，並相信六隧收費調整或於政府接管西隧後才推行。

TVB Interview / 專訪—日日有樓睇‧樓市把脈 20171108

Above is a recent feature interview by Hong Kong's TVB channel, in which we highlighted the following key issues facing the local housing market:
a) with the end of the USD correction in October, HK dollar assets will face headwinds;

b) higher than market expected interest rates are likely in the coming year, putting more pressure on housing assets in HK;

c) current government policies to encourage home ownership will likely result in the weakest segment of the society ending up in negative equity when the housing cycle turns down;

d) the best way to address the high prices is to convert all public housing supplies into private market supplies. By shifting supply into public housing, the government is directly pushing up home prices as supply is diverted into the non-buying portions of the housing ladder;

e) the government is setting too high income thresholds and keeps raising them (eg PRH threshold now covers 43% of HK households, HOS threshold is higher than 78% of HK households, while the Green Form Subsidised Home Ownership Scheme extends over 86% of all HK households). This creates a false impression of ever rising demand for housing welfare, when the proper way to restrict demand is to lower the thresholds so only the truly needy will qualify to join the waiting lists.

以上采訪出自香港無綫電視專訪，其中筆者指出了本地樓市存在的一些關鍵的問題：

a）現時樓價向下的風險較向上風險大，由於美金剛完成調整，現在開始反彈，因此港元資產會趨向走弱；

b）環球息率向上會多於市場預期，也會增加樓市風險；

c）現時樓價已經接近頂端，而政府推出的各項鼓勵市民置業的政策卻鼓勵最無承受力的市民在樓價下跌時淪爲負資產；

d）針對樓價高企的最好政策，莫過於將公營房屋土地全部撥入私人市場，政策過度傾斜公營房屋會為樓價火上加油，因爲供應被轉往不能影響市價的板塊；

e）政府所定的公營房屋入息限額過高也會令樓市升溫（例如：公屋入息限額已經覆蓋四成三家庭，居屋入息限額已經覆蓋七成八家庭，而綠置居入息更覆蓋高達八成六住戶） 這造成了福利房屋需求强勁的假象--更正確的做法應該降低公營房屋入息門檻以服務真正有需要的市民。

財務策劃會議 各界翹楚獻策

載於信報2017年9月28日

筆者早前獲邀參與財務策劃會議論論壇，與各位財金官員及金融業翹楚擔任演講嘉賓。
施永青先生跟筆者均認為現時香港的樓價已經偏高，並非合適入市之時機，鑑於香港仍擁有太多存款，樓價因此未能下跌。

同時筆者亦在論壇表示若美國縮表及加息步伐加快，將成為明年推動樓市下跌其中一個主因。

Time to Duck when celebs Quack?

It appears that the Hong Kong property market is reaching a fever pitch of late, with a string of news on record high prices being achieved. However, there is an ‘entertaining’ twist to this phenomenon, in that more and more entertainers (ie movie stars, singers) are reported to be buying properties – indeed, year to date this group of buyers have acquired over HK$1bn worth of bricks and mortar, involving over 44,000 square feet of space (Table 1):

Table 1: property purchases by celebrities in 2017

Source: media reports

One should not simply draw conclusions about any significant trends just because a particular group of people are behaving en masse. However, one should surely delve deeper when any phenomenon starts to exhibit extreme patterns – this article looks into the extraordinary symptom of celebrity purchases to aid readers in their own property decisions.

Celebs often seen buying when markets are hottest

Whether or not the property market is overvalued or a good buy depends on how far from longer term trends the price is at any point in time. In this article the author uses Centaline index versus its 3-year moving average as an indicator of over/under valuation (see red area in Chart 1, for more immediate price action, the red line works well too). And to quantify the frequency of celebrities’ property purchases, a simple and reliable indicator might be the search frequency of the keywords ‘celebrities’ and ‘home buying’ in Google Trends (blue line in Chart 1).

Chart 1: Frequent purchases by celebrities presage home price correction ahead

One could identify from the chart above these interesting patterns:

1.      The purchase frequency of celebrities coincides with the cycle of property prices closely (it is a shame that one cannot observe the relationship back to the previous market top in 1997, as Google Trends data does not go beyond 2004)

2.      Whenever the purchase frequency of artists reached a peak, home prices would soften or even fall a year later (red line in Chart 1)

For example, in the lead up to the market top just prior to the Lehman bankruptcy, the buying frequency reached a high of 76%. This was followed shortly by the Global Financial Crisis and a 20% fall in home prices one year later. On the other hand, during the period of weak market sentiment in mid-2016 when the buying-frequency fell to a low of 42%, home prices spiked a handsome 22% in the 12 months that followed!

It pays to shadow the actions of tycoons?

Another group of market participants, also active in the Hong Kong property market, are the super-rich tycoons (represented by the blue line in Chart 2); they seem to have diametrically opposite track records compared to the artists – perhaps the tycoons have more information at their finger-tips, or because they act on purely profit motive (rather than to follow the heart), they seem to have a highly profitable outcome in their dealings:

Chart 2: Tycoon sales seem to be followed by drops in home prices a year later

It is possible to identify two sets of patterns from the above chart:

1.      Fluctuations of tycoon property sales also coincide closely with the home price cycle;

2.      Home prices tended to correct or fall when more tycoons dispose of their properties (red line in Chart 2)

As an illustration, at the same time the celebs (i.e artists) were buying big time in 2008, the frequency of disposals by tycoons was also at its highest (when the reading reached a maximum of 100% in the series). Then in early 2016, when tycoon sale frequency fell to a low of 45%, home prices increased smartly in the year that followed. Crucially important for readers to note is the fact that the tycoon sale frequency has surged to 98% in recent months once again…

Subdivide-and-dump and hiving-off work well for tycoons too

Tycoons likely hold large portfolios of assets, if not listed companies holding the same in addition. They may therefore be able to lighten up their portfolios through other means than straight sales – subdividing larger properties into small units for sale, or listing on the stock exchange richly valued vehicles from their holding companies – come to mind.

If one is to search for a different set of terms on Google Trends, such as ‘hiving off’ + ‘properties’ (Chart 3 below, note the Chinese search terms used have a dual meaning of subdivision and spin-offs), one arrives at the same price reaction as the ‘tycoon’ + ‘sell properties’ terms analysed above. Putting the two sets of search combinations together, they indeed exhibit almost identical profile (see Chart 4).

Chart 3: Tycoons hiving off their assets also bode ill for property prices

Chart 4: Tycoons selling have near identical timing as artists/celebs buying

If the magnitude of change in home prices follows the red arrow in Chart 3, there is significant risk to the sustainability of housing market in the months ahead. Readers should exercise even more caution when considering buying homes.

Conclusion: Don’t buy from tycoons, and don’t scramble alongside artists

The above analysis yields three sets of conclusions:

1.      When big property companies increase their pace of disposals, especially subdividing or selling ever smaller units, it is often also the time when celebrities in the entertainment circles scramble to buy properties;

2.      The above phenomenon is a strong signal that the property market may be about to weaken, even collapse;

3.      Celebrities in the entertainment industry have hectic lives, and could be also more prone to acting on impulse than analysis. They could increase their chances of investment success if they employ the skills of seasoned professional advisors, both in the timing and execution of their purchases/sales, and in the ongoing management of the properties they hold. To stand better chances against the buy-high-sell-low symptom outlined above, our artists should avoid being swept off their feet by hot market sentiments, or by the sweet-talking from property agents.

The author would like to express gratitude to Mr Yeung LI of The Chinese University of Hong Kong for his contribution in the writing of this article.