香港樓市已死？20221115

最近，香港樓價已進入下降周期之說似乎漸成共識，特別是中原指數自2019年起三頂不破而轉頭向下，上周更跌至新低後（見【圖一】中綠線）。至今該指數已由高位累跌12%：

圖一：以不同貨幣計價的樓價指數

但對身處世界各地的投資者來說，回報的計算總是會以本國熟悉的貨幣為計價單位，因此只有當環球大多數投資者以本身角度去量度都同時觀察到樓價下降時，香港樓價進入跌市之判斷才能成為「客觀的共識」。

為確定香港樓價下跌是否真的已成共識（【圖一】似乎暗示時機未到），筆者由以下主要貨幣著手：

一）非美元地區（以美匯指數計價，代表其成份籃子內國家之集體共識；以下簡稱“美指籃子”）

二）歐盟區（以歐元計價）；

三）英國（以英鎊計價）；和

四）全球的黄金投資者（以金價計價）

港樓對海外投資者而言仍處牛市

從發達經濟體（即美匯指數中六大國貨幣，見【圖三】）角度來看，以港元（【圖二】中藍線）計價之樓價下跌勢頭並未被以美匯指數計價的樓價趨勢（紅線）確認：

圖二：以非美元計價的樓價仍呈上漲趨勢

事實上，以美指籃子計算的價格仍處上升通道，不論是從長期趨勢（綠色虛線）抑或中期走勢（紅色虛線），甚至是更短線的角度（藍色虛線）都可觀察到！這表明，對於經合組織的一般投資者而言，香港房地產仍是一項上升中的資產。

圖三：美匯指數由六種貨幣構成

港樓對歐羅區投資者更顯強勢

對歐元區投資者而言，港樓的上漲勢頭似乎比以美匯指數及港幣計價更加強勁，而過去數月歐元的急跌使以歐元計算的香港樓價在【圖四】中紅色虛線通道內加速上漲： 

圖四：歐羅區投資者可能正目睹香港樓價加速上行

英國投資者亦見升勢？

同樣，雖然自1981年以來，因美元及英鎊如影隨形而兩個貨幣計價之樓價指數難捨難分，但是自2015年起之英鎊貶值潮導致以其計價之指數開始拋離港元指數，而近期英鎊的急跌，更造就了英國投資者「感覺」香港樓價正在加速上漲的現象！

圖五：英國投資者可能覺得香港樓價正強勁反彈中

自約翰遜執政起的英鎊弱勢（拙劣的脫歐安排及瘋狂的疫下封城政策？）造就了香港資產在疲軟英鎊環境下不斷走強的現象。

黃金是唯一拋離香港房產的貨幣？

對信奉黃金價值的投資者而言，似乎奇蹟出現！以黃金計價的香港樓價，1997年的高峰仍然是未被超越的最高點，意味著從黃金這種貴金屬的角度來看，港樓仍處於一個長線熊市：

圖六：黃金強於港幣，但小幅突破正在發生？

儘管香港樓價指數已經衝破了短線運行通道頂部（【圖六】紅色虛線），但若明年戰爭風險擴大，則黃金可能會重奪主導地位，而以黃金計價的香港樓價亦會逆轉向下。時間會證明一切。

強勢貨幣進口通縮，在萬物騰貴下並非壞事！

在過去40多年的低通脹期内，每當美元疲軟時與美元掛鉤的香港資產通常會走強，如80年代中及2000年早期（見【圖七】）美元弱勢時樓價升勢強勁，反之亦然（主要在90年代後期）：

圖七：美元疲軟對房價有利，反之亦然；這次會否一樣？

然而，當下是否會重複類似70至80年代初的強美元環境，令流動性回流美國而產生通貨緊縮？這又與時下超高通脹環境如何互動？今輪美元走強是否是降低「生活成本危機」風險的一個契機？

這是一個非常有趣的議題，在香港短暫的貨幣歷史中肯定是從未見過的…上述研究表明，雖然筆者看跌港幣計價的樓價，但在全球貨幣角度來看，樓市進入熊市之判斷似乎仍言之過早。

筆者特別鳴謝香港大學會計及金融系李旻軒同學協助收集及整理本文相關數據及圖表

Is bear market confirmed for HK? 20221031

The observation that HK housing is in a downcycle has become consensus of late, after the CCL reaches a new low last week from the triple top dating as far back as 2019 (see green line in Chart 1). Cumulatively the index is now down 12% from the Aug 2021 high:

Chart 1: Home prices denominated in various currencies

But across the world, investors will always think about returns in their own currencies, and therefore, an 'objective consensus' of a true bear market in any asset price is only formed when the bulk of observers around the world see the same down trend that the base currency investors also sees.

So in order to find out whether the HK home prices are truly in a bear market by consensus (Chart 1 does not seem to suggest that is the case), let's take a look at the index as denominated in a few main jurisdictions:

a) the collective non-USD community (as proxied by DXY);

b) the EU community (as proxied by Euro);

c) the Brits (as proxied by GBP); and

d) gold bugs (as proxied by the price of gold).

HK still in bull market to world at large

From the point of view of the developed world population (as the USD index is represented by six liquid currencies, see Chart 3), however, the drop in HKD (blue line in Chart 2) terms is not corroborated by the price as measured by DXY the USD index:

Chart 2: Home price in non-USD terms still trending up

In fact, the non-USD price index is still very much heading up, from the longer term view (green dotted lines) to medium term view (red dotted lines), to even the shorter term time horizon (blue dotted lines)! What this suggests is that for the average OECD investor, HK property is still a rising asset.

Chart 3: make up of the DXY - 6 currencies

Home prices even more bullish for Europeans

For the average person based in Euro, the upward momentum seems even stronger compared to DXY, and HK prices, thanks to the collapse in Euros in the last few months, seem to be accelerating upwards within the red channel:

Chart 4: Euro investors may see HK prices accelerating upwards

Brits also feel the upturn?

Similarly, with the recent precipitous drop in the value of the Pound, the HK home price index will appear to the average Blighty investor to be positively surging even, after HK first started pulling away from a very correlated pairing between the HKD and GBP denominated indices which pretty much shadowed each other since our data started in 1981:

Chart 5: HK prices look strong to the British Pound investor

The much weaker pound post Boris's premiership (botched Brexit plus zealous lockdowns?) ensures that the weak pound has provided a strong platform for HK assets to appear to go from strength to strength.

Gold the only currency beating HK property?

For those who believe in gold, there is good news - In Gold terms, the 1997 peak remains the unsurprised top for HK home prices, meaning that we may still be in a bear market when measured from the perspective of the precious metal:

Chart 6: Gold strong vs HK, but mini breakout underway?

Even though the price index has broken above a near term trading channel, as indicated by the red arrow in Chart 6, if war does flare up more next year, we think gold might reassert its dominance and the break up could reverse. Time will tell.

Strong currency imports deflation, which is not a bad thing now!

In normal disinflationary times such as most of the past 40+ years, being pegged to the USD is good for HK assets during times of weak USD, as Chart 7 illustrates - weakening or weak USD is generally accompanied by bouts of strong home price increases, and the reverse held true (mostly in the mid/late 90s):

Chart 7: weak USD good for home prices, and vice versa - will it be different this time?

However, could we be in a period similar to the early 70s or early 80s, when strong USD will suck liquidity away from HK and produce deflation? How does this contrast the current super high inflationary environment? Is the strong USD a blessing as it reduces the 'cost of living' crisis that would otherwise hit these shores?

A very interesting dynamic, not seen before in our brief monetary history for sure... The above study shows that, whilst we remain somewhat bearish on the outlook of the HK market, more needs to happen in the global currency markets before it is a true foregone conclusion...

The author would like to thank Lee Man Hin Carson from The University of Hong Kong majoring in Accounting and Finance for assisting in data collection, analysis, and drafting of this article.