顯示包含「pandemics」標籤的文章。顯示所有文章
顯示包含「pandemics」標籤的文章。顯示所有文章

2020年10月12日星期一

Scientists against lockdown/vaccine - 5 recent references

 1) scientists call for end to lockdowns

if you are still waiting for more scientific proof that the covid is no more harmful than normal flu, here are 15,000 more pieces of them... so see below, and spread the message if you are getting sick staying home, or losing job because your employer is slashing staff or even going bust, etc. etc...


do you believe a few govt mouthpiece 'scientists' or the independent scientific community at large?


Signed by

Medical & Public
Health Scientists

5,204

Medical
Practitioners

10,231

General
Public

140,605

The Great Barrington Declaration

As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection. 

Coming from both the left and right, and around the world, we have devoted our careers to protecting people. Current lockdown policies are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health. The results (to name a few) include lower childhood vaccination rates, worsening cardiovascular disease outcomes, fewer cancer screenings and deteriorating mental health – leading to greater excess mortality in years to come, with the working class and younger members of society carrying the heaviest burden. Keeping students out of school is a grave injustice. 

Keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.

Fortunately, our understanding of the virus is growing. We know that vulnerability to death from COVID-19 is more than a thousand-fold higher in the old and infirm than the young. Indeed, for children, COVID-19 is less dangerous than many other harms, including influenza. 

As immunity builds in the population, the risk of infection to all – including the vulnerable – falls. We know that all populations will eventually reach herd immunity – i.e.  the point at which the rate of new infections is stable – and that this can be assisted by (but is not dependent upon) a vaccine. Our goal should therefore be to minimize mortality and social harm until we reach herd immunity. 

The most compassionate approach that balances the risks and benefits of reaching herd immunity, is to allow those who are at minimal risk of death to live their lives normally to build up immunity to the virus through natural infection, while better protecting those who are at highest risk. We call this Focused Protection. 

Adopting measures to protect the vulnerable should be the central aim of public health responses to COVID-19. By way of example, nursing homes should use staff with acquired immunity and perform frequent PCR testing of other staff and all visitors. Staff rotation should be minimized. Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside. A comprehensive and detailed list of measures, including approaches to multi-generational households, can be implemented, and is well within the scope and capability of public health professionals. 

Those who are not vulnerable should immediately be allowed to resume life as normal. Simple hygiene measures, such as hand washing and staying home when sick should be practiced by everyone to reduce the herd immunity threshold. Schools and universities should be open for in-person teaching. Extracurricular activities, such as sports, should be resumed. Young low-risk adults should work normally, rather than from home. Restaurants and other businesses should open. Arts, music, sport and other cultural activities should resume. People who are more at risk may participate if they wish, while society as a whole enjoys the protection conferred upon the vulnerable by those who have built up herd immunity.

On October 4, 2020, this declaration was authored and signed in Great Barrington, United States, by:

Dr. Martin Kulldorff, professor of medicine at Harvard University, a biostatistician, and epidemiologist with expertise in detecting and monitoring of infectious disease outbreaks and vaccine safety evaluations.

Dr. Sunetra Gupta, professor at Oxford University, an epidemiologist with expertise in immunology, vaccine development, and mathematical modeling of infectious diseases.

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professor at Stanford University Medical School, a physician, epidemiologist, health economist, and public health policy expert focusing on infectious diseases and vulnerable populations.

Co-signers

Medical and Public Health Scientists and Medical Practitioners

Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi, physician and professor emeritus of medical microbiology, University of Mainz, Germany

Dr. Rajiv Bhatia, physician, epidemiologist and public policy expert at the Veterans Administration, USA

Dr. Stephen Bremner,professor of medical statistics, University of Sussex, England

Dr. Anthony J Brookes, professor of genetics, University of Leicester, England

Dr. Helen Colhoun, ,professor of medical informatics and epidemiology, and public health physician, University of Edinburgh, Scotland

Dr. Angus Dalgleish, oncologist, infectious disease expert and professor, St. George’s Hospital Medical School, University of London, England

Dr. Sylvia Fogel, autism expert and psychiatrist at Massachusetts General Hospital and instructor at Harvard Medical School, USA

Dr. Eitan Friedman, professor of medicine, Tel-Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Uri Gavish, biomedical consultant, Israel

Dr. Motti Gerlic, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Gabriela Gomes, mathematician studying infectious disease epidemiology, professor, University of Strathclyde, Scotland

Dr. Mike Hulme, professor of human geography, University of Cambridge, England

Dr. Michael Jackson, research fellow, School of Biological Sciences, University of Canterbury, New Zealand
Dr. Annie Janvier, professor of pediatrics and clinical ethics, Université de Montréal and Sainte-Justine University Medical Centre, Canada

Dr. David Katz, physician and president, True Health Initiative, and founder of the Yale University Prevention Research Center, USA

Dr. Andrius Kavaliunas, epidemiologist and assistant professor at Karolinska Institute, Sweden
Dr. Laura Lazzeroni, professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences and of biomedical data science, Stanford University Medical School, USA

Dr. Michael Levitt, biophysicist and professor of structural biology, Stanford University, USA.
Recipient of the 2013 Nobel Prize in Chemistry.

Dr. David Livermore, microbiologist, infectious disease epidemiologist and professor, University of East Anglia, England

Dr. Jonas Ludvigsson, pediatrician, epidemiologist and professor at Karolinska Institute and senior physician at Örebro University Hospital, Sweden
Dr. Paul McKeigue, physician, disease modeler and professor of epidemiology and public health, University of Edinburgh, Scotland
Dr. Cody Meissner, professor of pediatrics, expert on vaccine development, efficacy, and safety. Tufts University School of Medicine, USA

Dr. Ariel Munitz, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu, professor of finance, director of the Behavioural Finance Working Group, Queen Mary University of London, England

Dr. Partha P. Majumder, professor and founder of the National Institute of Biomedical Genomics, Kalyani, India

Dr. Udi Qimron, professor of clinical microbiology and immunology, Tel Aviv University, Israel

Dr. Matthew Ratcliffe, professor of philosophy, specializing in philosophy of mental health, University of York, England

Dr. Mario Recker, malaria researcher and associate professor, University of Exeter, England
Dr. Eyal Shahar, physician, epidemiologist and professor (emeritus) of public health, University of Arizona, USA

Dr. Karol Sikora MA, physician, oncologist, and professor of medicine at the University of Buckingham, England

Dr. Matthew Strauss, critical care physician and assistant professor of medicine, Queen’s University, Canada
Dr. Rodney Sturdivant, infectious disease scientist and associate professor of biostatistics, Baylor University, USA
Dr. Simon Thornley, epidemiologist and biostatistician, University of Auckland, New Zealand

Dr. Ellen Townsend, professor of psychology, head of the Self-Harm Research Group, University of Nottingham, England

Dr. Lisa White, professor of modelling and epidemiology, Oxford University, England

Dr. Simon Wood, biostatistician and professor, University of Edinburgh, Scotland

==================================================================

2) this speech has 1.2M views, 50k likes... in a week

it seems the facade is starting to crumble ... if suits start to be instituted around the globe, one might predict that in a month's time, the scam would be fully discredited. A monumental development indeed...


 

 

3)Calif. doctor successfully cures 1,700 COVID-19 patients


 

4) This article by an eminent scientist who is no anti-vaxxer, discusses 4 of the major vaccine candidates:

Source:  Covid-19 Vaccine Protocols Reveal That Trials Are Designed To Succeed

Because phase III trials won't be complete until late 2022, the plan seems to be to release the vaccines after interim trials for which the efficacy bar has been set very low indeed. They are required to be 70% effective at eliminating symptoms in around 50 PCR-positive subjects, out of thousands who receive the trial vaccine. The symptoms concerned can be very mild.

So, not only are the normal safety tests to be cut short, but the vaccines are not required to have any effect on anything that people are actually concerned about, such as:

 - hospitalisation

 - death

 - durability of immunity (concerns have been raised by some about the durability of naturally-acquired immunity)

 - being infectious while asymptomatic

 - testing positive in a PCR test

 - Long COVID or other complications

As the author says, "It boggles the mind and defies common sense that the National Institute of Health, the Center for Disease Control, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, and the rest would consider the approval of a vaccine that would be distributed to hundreds of millions on such slender threads of success."


5) Some quotes from Dr David Nabarro, the WHO’s Special Envoy on Covid-19:

“We in the WHO do not advocate lockdowns as a primary means of controlling this virus.”


“We really do appeal to all world leaders: stop using lockdown as your primary control method”


“Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is, making poor people an awful lot poorer”

 

Twitter: The Head of the WHO Covid-19 response effort Dr Nabarro just said "FFS will you all stop with all these stupid lockdowns

 


2020年9月9日星期三

Two Very Important updates on why flu lockdowns may be overkill 20200910

Edit on 18-09-2020, additional link to doctor's comment on vaccine, see (3).

We have come across two important updates on the flu lockdown which are significant enough to warrant sharing in a separate post (normally we only publish research analysis that are our own work):

1) Death rate due solely to covid is much lower than advertised
CDC says only 6% of death this year is due solely to covid (link here) - this throws into question the rationale for the draconian measures we see all around the world:





2) A very well put together scientific/statistical debunking of the lockdown narrative - a must watch:

Viral Issue Crucial Update Sept 8th: the Science, Logic and Data Explained!

 



3) Edit on 18-09-2020
 
 

 
 
Given the mounting evidence such as above datapoints against the lockdown narrative, and rising suspicion amongst the populace that something might be not quite right, it is not surprising to see more comments / actions such as these in recent days/weeks:
 
a) Demanding resignation of health officials who trashed HCQ treatment:

The jury is in on Hydroxychloroquine – ‘it saves lives’: Rowan Dean


b) German state starting to backtrack on earlier harsh flu policy:



c) hundreds of thousands of people marched against the lockdown in Berlin (if you didn't hear of it, it is because the pro-authority media blocked the news out):
 

 
d) people starting to rebel elsewhere:
 


If the above evidence make you also question the mainstream narrative, here is a handy summary of all the postings we have published on the topic since the beginning of the outbreak:


1. 新冠全面封城,政府過敏反應? 20200819

2. Another draconian lockdown in HK; another over-reaction? - 20200727

3. Are you ready for the '2nd wave' of the flu? - 20200710

4. Doctors recommend lifting lockdown (and other perspectives on the flu) - 20200427

5. 10 MORE Experts Criticising the Coronavirus Panic - 20200331

6. 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic - 20200330

7. Which one is scarier: TB, the flu, or Conoravirus? - 20200316


Should you think something needs to be done about the situation, please feel free to share this post far and wide so we can return to normal earlier.
 
 

2020年7月10日星期五

Are you ready for the '2nd wave' of the flu?

On the cusp of a much heralded '2nd wave' hitting us, we need to remain factual, rational, and proportionate. These recent articles help us see beyond the usual media hype and so called 'expert opinions':


 


1. Second wave?Not even close


7 July 2020 by JB Handley


Key points:


1) We have overwhelmingly overreacted on the issue of COVID-19


2) Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of this virus is merely 0.26%


3)  Governments expanded their power and strengthened their control over people by enforcing regulation, adopting mass surveillance and useless rules (e.g. prohibit group gatherings with more than 50 people in public places)


4) The lockdown measure has hurt the economy and life-quality severely


5)  One effective method that is proven by numbers to cope with COVID-19 is “Herd immunity threshold” (HIT)


 


2. UniversalMasking in Hospitals in the Covid-19 Era


21 May 2020 by Michael Klompas, M.D., M.P.H., Charles A. Morris, M.D., M.P.H., Julia Sinclair, M.B.A., Madelyn Pearson, D.N.P., R.N., and Erica S. Shenoy, M.D., Ph.D.


Key points:


1) Mask may reduce the likelihood of transmission


2) Masking alone is not panacea. Focusing on universal masking alone may, paradoxically, lead to more transmission


3) Mask serves more a visible reminder of the importance of social distancing


 


3. 30 Facts aboutCovid-19


June 2020 by Swiss Policy Research

  

Key points: “The only means to fight the plague is honesty.” (Albert Camus, 1947)


 


Stay sane and stay strong...


2020年4月27日星期一

Doctors recommend lifting lockdown (and other perspectives on the flu) 20200427


Academics like lockdowns because they are finally the centre of attention, and get more funding if things appear more serious than otherwise...

Politicians like lockdowns because they can grab power and control you...

Media like lockdowns because they can scare you into peeling yourself to the screen all day long and they can sell more ads...

or so the cynic would say, but if one follows the money, one could certainly see traces of such causal relationship.

As a result of the panic lockdowns, even doctors are losing their jobs, all while patients are denied "non-covid" operations/procedures and dying of ailments that would otherwise be treated.

Here are some interviews with professionals holding different views from the mainstream narrative... see if you agree with any of their reasoning?

COVID-19 Briefing: Current Quarantine Approach Wrong Based on Science | Dr Erickson & Dr Massihi Pt1



Politicians ‘freaked’ about ‘plainly wrong’ coronavirus predictions:



Perspectives on the Pandemic | Professor Knut Wittkowski | Episode 2

2020年1月31日星期五

Wuhan pneumonia in context – why we need not overreact 20200131

There seems a universal (well at least in HK) panic about the Wuhan pneumonia outbreak, with at least 95% of the people we see in the streets wearing masks – a spectacle – and many organisations completely shutting down (including the govt) for fear of contagion…

This is despite to date only 10 people in HK have been confirmed cases. The status at the time of writing looks like this:

Figure 1: current outbreak statistics












If you look at the numbers, however, the situation is perhaps much less frightening than the media (and officials) have whipped up:

1) Death rate similar/weaker than normal flu? As table below shows, the death rate of diagnosed cases in the epicentre, Wuhan, may be high at 5.7%, but by the time you look at the province at large, it drops to 3.5%, and overall China-wide, the ratio becomes a low 2.2%. HK’s death rate is a lucky big Zero:

Table 1: WARS statistics











Compared to other headline flu pandemics reported (see FR1 below), where death rate range around 0.03-0.08% of population, the current rate of death, even in Wuhan, is a tiny fraction (see right column in Table 1, at 0.0012%) – ie there needs a 100-300x increase in deaths from current Hubei levels (0.00027%) to match past pandemics alone – ie. 16k – 49k in casualties in total. Luckily, the Hubei death toll is a low 162 as of today; 

2) The death rate have been dropping – usually the early deaths tend to be more heavily reported/collected as a statistic compared to the actual infected population, while the catching up by the latter leads to a more normalised, actual rate in time (red line below). Public awareness may also put a stop to accelerated growth in death rates, which the blue line below could well be suggesting, falling from 3% to early 2% in the past few days. A consistent departure from the red trajectory will mean we can largely return to normal activities:

Chart 1: death rate tends towards the disease’s true virility in time














3)      Vigilance is ultra-high this time – compared to SARS (when prevention only scaled up after several weeks of casualties), people are armed to the teeth within days, thanks to the magnifying effect of social media and international measures (which are unprecedented – chartered flights to retrieve nationals from China, for example). As a result, the spreading of the disease will likely be much less rapid. Here is a map showing which country to be in with any epidemic outbreak. Not surprisingly, OECD countries come top:

Figure 2: which countries are best prepared for an outbreak?
























4)      Possible longer drag than SARS – One feature that does not talked about is the timing of the current outbreak – instead of a March incident like in SARS, we are in January, that means the period of time before it becomes too warm for virus to spread diseases will be longer than during the SARS episode, which ended in June 2003 as temperature rose.

This time round, the outbreak will potentially be lengthened by two months. Hopefully the growth in case numbers (red line in Chart 2 below) will see a tailing off much faster this time compared to SARS (blue line) on increased vigilance.

Chart 2: Case growth rate may decay like the SARS outbreak












5)      Virility tracking will give the answer – the viciousness of the current outbreak has yet to be proven, but if the trends discussed thus far hold, the situation stands good chance stabilising at current levels.

In the next few weeks we should have our answer, but if anyone even remembers the not too distant 2009 avian flu outbreak, which is so far 1000x higher than WARS in death rates (red dotted line, Chart 3), people seem much more ready, if not more than necessarily prepared this time round.

Chart 3: log chart comparing current death rates to past pandemics


















------------------------

Reference – further reading 1 (FR1)

Flu causes more death than you may think!

Every flu season, a lot of people die from this disease, mainly from complications such as pneumonia

More than 200,000 people are hospitalized each year in the United States for the flu illness and its complications and between 3,000 and 49,000 people die each year from the flu. The number of flu deaths every year varies. That is 1.5%-25% of hospitalised flu victims die each year!

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), about 3 to 5 million cases of severe flu illness and about 250 000 to 500 000 flu season deaths worldwide occur due to the influenza virus. That is anywhere between 5% to 17% of deaths.

Really big pandemics in context

The world has seen five pandemics during the last century, which took a large number of lives. Here are the figures of deaths that occurred in the United States and Worldwide during those years.

1. 1889 Russian Flu Pandemic – about 1 million flu deaths (0.07% global population)

2. “Spanish flu” A of 1918-19 caused the highest number of influenza-related deaths: approximately 500,000 deaths occurred in the U.S. and 20 million worldwide. That figure is more than the total number of deaths caused by the World War one — 16 million. As a matter of fact, during that year, the flu had killed more people than any other illness in recorded history. (1.1% global population)

3. “Asian flu” A of 1957-58 caused 70,000 deaths in the United States and about one million to two million deaths worldwide (0.07% global population)

4. “Hong-Kong flu” A of 1968-69 resulted in 34,000 deaths in the United States and an estimated one million to three million people died worldwide. (0.08% global population)

5. 2009 H1N1 Flu Pandemic – about 18,300 deaths in the United States and up to 203,000 deaths worldwide (0.003% global population)

So amongst the most feared pandemics in history, only the Spanish flu was of truly frightful scale when 1.1% of population perished.


Reference – further reading 2 (FR2)
Trends in Recorded Influenza Mortality: United States, 1900–2004, by Peter Doshi

In results section author concluded: “An overall and substantial decline in influenza-classed mortality was observed during the 20th century, from an average seasonal rate of 10.2 deaths per 100 000 population in the 1940s to 0.56 per 100 000 by the 1990s. The 1918–1919 pandemic stands out as an exceptional outlier.”